Peru Telecommunications Report Q2 2012
- ID: 2095198
- February 2012
- Region: Peru
- 82 Pages
- Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International's Peru Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Peru's telecommunications industry.
The latest operator data available for our Peru Telecommunications Q212 report are from Q311 and shows an increase in the pace of growth for the Peruvian mobile market, with over 1mn new subscribers added to the market. This reflects the aggressive actions of operators keen to secure market share in the Peruvian market. Further, the government is keen to promote mobile penetration. The postpaid sector is growing quicker than the prepaid sector, at 6.7% q-o-q compared to 3.5% q-o-q, although in absolute terms, more subscribers have joined on prepaid contracts this quarter.
ARPUs are unchanged for Claro and Nextel this quarter, although Movistar reported gains. This is surprising as this operator also reported the largest number of net additions in Q311. However, BMI believes this is a demonstration of the company’s continued target of higher income subscribers.
However, it has not been an easy quarter for Telefónica, despite the strong growth in the mobile sector. Its fixed-line subsidiary Telefonica del Peru has had to pay US$49.7mn in back taxes to the country's securities market regulator SUNAT, following increasing pressure from the government and the threat of that its mobile licence will not be renewed. However, the government is demanding an additional US$850mn to be paid. Telefónica has much to lose by not conceding, as it is still awaiting a decision on the renewal of its mobile licences. Telefónica's ongoing debt problems will mean it will continue to fight, and there is a small possibility it will exit the market to finance its European debt. However, BMI believes this unlikely, given Telefónica's established position in the country and the optimistic mediumand long-term growth prospects in the Peruvian market.
Newly released H111 data for the fixed-line sector has shown that the Peruvian telecoms market continues to see a decline. The market has been losing subscribers since 2009 and BMI expects this pattern will continue as Peruvians find mobile handsets more convenient and as prices fall. However, we would not be surprised to see occasional quarters of growth as operators launch new promotions in order to attract subscribers to this market.
Further, the growing abundance of bundled services will buoy the number of traditional telephony customers for some time.
According to Osiptel data, Telefónica de Peru remains the largest operator by some margin. While Telefónica is in the process of merging Telefónica Móviles and Telefónica del Peru, in H111 these were still separate companies, and Telefónica Móviles reported a 13.6% share of the fixed-line market. Osiptel reports that the companies together had a fixed- line market share of 86.8% in H111, lower than the 92.6% share at the end of Q210. This shows new players are gaining ground in this market, although it remains dominated by Telefónica. This will continue through 2012 and beyond.
New Osiptel data also revealed the broadband market continues to grow strongly as operators make services more widely available and the population becomes more accustomed to using such services. In addition, government support of the roll-out of broadband services is also helping the market to grow. The growth of ADSL connections outpaces all other connections considerably. At the end of June 2011, there were 961.700 ADSL connections, a growth rate of 14% in six months. However, this growth was outpaced by the growth in cable modem subscriptions, which expanded 34% in the same period. However, this growth is from a much lower base and the number of ADSL subscriptions remains 12 times higher than the number of cable modem subscriptions.
We have revised up our mobile and broadband forecasts as a result of strong growth, while we revised down our fixed-line forecasts given the new data, which shows the market is slowing faster than we expected in Q111. We expect the mobile market to continue growing strongly through our forecast period, as penetration is still far below saturation, at 85.9%. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Peru Mobile Market SWOT Analysis
Peru Wireline Business Environment SWOT
Peru Political SWOT
Peru Economic SWOT
Peru Business Environment SWOT
Risk Reward Ratings Q212
Table: Q212 Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile, 2009-2016
Table: Telecoms Sector – ARPU (PEN), 2009-2016
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line, 2009-2016
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet, 2009-2016
Market Data Analysis
Table: Peru's Mobile Market, Q311
Table: Peru's Mobile Market – Net Additions, Q211 and Q311
ARPU And MOU
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Table: VAS Timeline
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Peru Mobile Market Overview
Table: Nextel Peru
Table: Peru Fixed-Line Market, June 2011
Table: Telefónica del Peru Lines In Operation – Historic Data (000) 2009-2011
Table: Operator Lines, H111
Table: Internet By Technology And Subscriber Type, H111('000)
Table: Wireline Developments
Division Of Regulatory Responsibilities In Peru
Peru: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Ceragon Networks Unaudited Reported Results, Q210-Q311 (US$'000)
Table: Ceragon FibeAir Products
Telefónica del Perú
Telefónica Móviles Perú (Movistar)
América Móvil Perú (Claro)
Nextel del Perú
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Internet Penetration Overview
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Risk/ Reward Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators