• 1-800-526-8630U.S. (TOLL FREE)
  • 1-917-300-0470EAST COAST U.S.
  • +353-1-416-8900REST OF WORLD
New Zealand - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts - Product Image

New Zealand - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

  • ID: 1452088
  • November 2013
  • Region: New Zealand
  • 184 Pages
  • Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd
New Zealand Telecoms Market To Reach To Nz$5.35 Billion In 2014

This report provides a snapshot of key statistical data for New Zealand’s telecom market. It includes information on:

- Country statistics - GDP information and population;
- Internet and Broadband - subscribers, users and penetration rate;
- Mobile - subscribers, annual change and penetration rate;
- Telephone network - fixed-lines and teledensity;
- Telecom investment and revenue data;
- Broadcasting - Pay TV subscribers and penetration rate.

The report includes information on: Telecom, Vodafone, Chorus, Kordia, CallPlus, M2, WxC, and Southern Cross Cable.

It also outlines recent key regulatory developments in the New Zealand telecom market, and including developments on Telecommunications Service Obligations (TSOs) and Telecommunications Relay Service. Information on the Telecommunication Development Levy that will fund some of the outlay for Rural Broadband Initiative is provided. An overview of the Telecommunications Dispute Resolution is also provided. Information on the proposed 700MHZ spectrum DSO and auctions is also provided.

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
New Zealand Telecoms Market To Reach To Nz$5.35 Billion In 2014

1. The Market Moving into 2014
1.1 Competitive landscape
1.1.1 New Zealand’s 2nd tier players squashed
1.1.2 Is consolidation needed for future survival
1.1.3 Fibre will provide more access to service
1.2 The UFB and RBI
1.2.1 UFB analysis
1.2.2 Overbuilding the networks overspends the investment dollar
1.3 Mobile market
1.3.1 Will TelstraClear’s new owner add value to the market
1.4 Developments in cloud services and big data
1.4.1 Growth in crowdsourced data collection
1.4.2 Big data and the growth in M2M
1.5 Consumer prices
1.5.1 Higher price points leads to lower uptake
1.5.2 The hidden cost of increased UFB uptake

2. Statistical Overview of the Market
2.1 Key statistics
2.2 Local access and fixed voice overview
2.2.1 Fixed-line voice market
2.2.2 Smaller players operate in niche markets
2.2.3 Payphones
2.3 VoIP market
2.3.1 Market overview
2.3.2 Market size and estimates
2.3.3 Residential sector
2.3.4 Business sector
2.4 Fixed-Mobile Convergence (FMC)
2.4.1 Introduction
2.4.2 Service bundling
2.4.3 Dual-mode services
2.4.4 Network convergence
2.4.5 International cable updates
2.5 Smart grid developments

3. Market Forecasts 2015, 2020
3.1 Market overview
3.1.1 Media market
3.1.2 Total overhaul of the telecoms industry
3.1.3 Infrastructure market
3.1.4 The retail market
3.1.5 The trans-sector market
3.2 The fixed broadband market
3.2.1 Setting the scene
3.2.2 Fixed broadband market forecasts
3.3 The mobile market
3.3.1 Overview of changes
3.3.2 Mobile market scenarios

4. Regulatory Overview
4.1 History
4.2 UBA, UCLL, LLU and UBS access market developments
4.2.1 Determination on wholesale services - 2013
4.2.2 Minor changes post Telecom and Chorus demerger
4.3 Mobile regulation developments
4.3.1 Mobile Termination Rates (MTRs)
4.3.2 Micropayments using PayforitNZ approved
4.4 Spectrum market
4.4.1 Background information
4.4.2 Spectrum and auctions
4.4.3 Analogue Switchover (ASO)
4.5 Telecommunications Service Obligations (Kiwi Share)
4.5.1 Background
4.5.2 Telecommunications Development Levy – 2010 - 2017
4.5.3 TDL changes
4.6 Telecommunications Relay Service (TRS)
4.6.1 Overview
4.6.2 Cost of the TSR
4.7 Telecommunications Dispute Resolution (TDR)
4.7.1 Scheme overview
4.8 Number Portability (NP)
4.8.1 Overview
4.8.2 Statistics

5. Mobile Communications
5.1 Mobile market overview
5.2 Major mobile operators
5.2.1 Telecom Mobile
5.2.2 Vodafone New Zealand
5.2.3 2degrees Mobile
5.3 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
5.3.1 TelstraClear
5.3.2 Black+White
5.3.3 CallPlus/Slingshot
5.3.4 Compass
5.3.5 Orcon
5.4 Mobile market analysis
5.4.1 700MHz Spectrum auction
5.5 Statistics
5.5.1 Operating statistics
5.5.2 Historic statistics
5.5.3 Revenue analysis
5.5.4 Mobile revenue statistics
5.5.5 Number portability
5.5.6 Smart device market
5.6 Mobile Messaging
5.6.1 Short Message Service (SMS)
5.7 Mobile content and applications
5.7.1 International mobile roaming (IMR)
5.7.2 NFC payments trials
5.7.3 Joint venture for Trusted Service Manager (TSM)

6. The Broadband Market
6.1 Statistics, Overview and Providers
6.1.1 Overview of fixed broadband market in New Zealand
6.1.2 The ISP market
6.1.3 Broadband statistics and forecasts
6.1.4 Major broadband service providers
6.1.5 Fibre developments
6.1.6 WiFi developments
6.2 Ultra-Fast Broadband Network
6.2.1 Background information
6.2.2 Deployment developments
6.2.3 Will the deployment strategy last
6.2.4 The backbone network
6.2.5 New networks adding financial value to the economy
6.2.6 VDSL developments
6.2.7 Proposed new UFB services for 2014
6.2.8 Rural Broadband Initiative (RBI)
6.2.9 BuddeComm analyses
6.2.10 Overview of involved parties
6.3 Wireless Broadband
6.3.1 Overview
6.3.2 WiFi
6.3.3 WiMAX
6.3.4 Satellite
6.3.5 Major wireless broadband providers

7. Digital Economy and Digital Media
7.1 The digital economy – a key market driver
7.2 Policies and infrastructure
7.2.1 E-government
7.2.2 The Ultra-Fast Broadband network – getting connected
7.2.3 New Zealand’s current broadband network
7.3 Digital economy in New Zealand
7.3.1 Overview of the indicators
7.4 E-commerce
7.4.1 Overview and statistics
7.4.2 Daily-deal coupon sites still growing in popularity
7.4.3 Trade Me
7.4.4 Global newcomers to e-commerce in New Zealand
7.4.5 Online music
7.5 E-health
7.5.1 Overview
7.5.2 Personal health care records
7.5.3 E-learning
7.6 Smart meters/smart grids
7.6.1 Overview
7.6.2 Renewable energy use target set for 2025
7.6.3 Electric vehicles trials and wireless chargers
7.6.4 Pilots and trials
7.6.5 Smart meters finally getting smart
7.6.6 Smart grids starting to roll out
7.6.7 Auckland network smart meters
7.6.8 Google PowerMeter installed in New Zealand
7.6.9 Smart networks
7.6.10 Smart homes
7.6.11 Time shifting of power usage
7.7 Digital media
7.7.1 IPTV (DSL TV)
7.7.2 Mobile TV
7.7.3 Social networking

8. Major Operators
8.1 Telecom Corporation New Zealand
8.1.1 Company overview
8.1.2 Background information on the demerger of Chorus and assets
8.1.3 Recent developments – free WiFi, 4G trials, data roaming reduced
8.1.4 Operations statistical information
8.1.5 Company divisions
8.1.6 Products and services
8.1.7 Subsidiary and associate companies
8.1.8 Environmental developments
8.1.9 Company history
8.2 Chorus Limited
8.2.1 Overview
8.2.2 Financial results
8.2.3 Operational results
8.2.4 Company services
8.2.5 Background information on Chorus and the UFB rollout
8.2.6 Company history
8.3 Vodafone New Zealand
8.3.1 Global and Oceania operations
8.3.2 TelstraClear purchased by Vodafone
8.3.3 Company analysis
8.3.4 The networks
8.3.5 Products and services
8.3.6 Wholesale, roaming and partnerships
8.3.7 Financial results
8.3.8 Operating results
8.3.9 Company history
8.4 Overview of the 2nd tier Telecoms Players
8.4.1 CallPlus
8.4.2 M2 NZ Limited
8.4.3 Southern Cross Cable Network
8.4.4 WxC (Worldxchange Communications)
8.4.5 Kordia – Orcon

9. Broadcasting – FTA, Pay TV, Digital TV and Radio
9.1 Overview
9.2 Free-to-air TV
9.2.1 Television New Zealand (TVNZ)
9.2.2 Maori TV
9.2.3 MediaWorks NZ
9.2.4 Prime Television New Zealand
9.2.5 New Zealand Racing Board
9.3 Digital FTA TV
9.3.1 Freeview
9.3.2 Digital TV changeover
9.4 Pay and cable TV (digital)
9.4.1 Market overview
9.4.2 Igloo
9.4.3 SKY Network Television
9.4.4 TelstraClear
9.5 IPTV
9.5.1 Overview
9.5.2 Quickflix
9.5.3 TiVo
9.6 Digital radio
9.6.1 Digital Audio Broadcasting (DAB)
9.6.2 Digital radio trials

Table 1 – Telecom services revenue and investment statistics – 2008 - 2013
Table 2 – Estimated cost of building the UFB
Table 3 – Mobile subscribers by network operator – 2007 - 2013
Table 4 – Country statistics – 2013 (e)
Table 5 – Telecom services revenue and investment statistics – 2008 - 2013
Table 6 – Telephone network statistics – 2013 (e)
Table 7 – Internet statistics – 2013 (e)
Table 8 – Broadband statistics – 2013 (Jun)
Table 9 – Mobile statistics – 2013 (Jun)
Table 10 – Broadcasting statistics – Pay TV and FTA TV – 2013
Table 11 – Local access lines and local service and calling revenues – 2006 - 2013
Table 12 – Local access lines and local service and calling revenues – 2002 - 2013
Table 13 – VoIP plans and calling rates by major provider – 2013
Table 14 – Size of fixed trans-sector market – 2020
Table 15 – Size of mobile trans-sector market – 2020
Table 16 – Telecommunications services revenue by market – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 17 – Telecommunications services revenue share by market – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 18 – Forecast fixed-broadband subscribers – 2012 - 2013; 2015; 2020
Table 19 – Forecast mobile voice subscribers – 2012 - 2013; 2015; 2020
Table 20 – Telecom and Vodafone network termination rates (Cents per minute) – 2011 - 2014
Table 21 – Annual cost of TDL – 2010 - 2017
Table 22 – Sprint payments from TRS/TSO – 2004 - 2013
Table 23 – Total ported numbers mobile versus fixed (by month) – 2008 - 2013
Table 24 – Telecom mobile retail revenue – 2009 - 2013
Table 25 – Telecom mobile subscribers – 2001 - 2013
Table 26 – Vodafone subscribers – 2007 - 2013
Table 27 – Vodafone mobile revenue – 2008 - 2012
Table 28 – Mobile subscribers per major operator – 2009 - 2013
Table 29 – 2degrees key financial performance figures – 2008 - 2012
Table 30 – 2degrees mobile market revenue – 2008 - 2012
Table 31 – Mobile data traffic – 2010 - 2014
Table 32 – Mobile voice traffic – 2006 - 2014
Table 33 – Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration rate – 2001 - 2014
Table 34 – Annual change in mobile subscribers per major operator – 2002 - 2013
Table 35 – Historic - Market share of mobile subscribers per operator – 1995 - 2004
Table 36 – Market share of mobile subscribers per operator – 2005 - 2013
Table 37 – Telecom and Vodafone prepaid versus postpaid subscribers – 2005 - 2013
Table 38 – Market share of prepaid subscribers by MNO – 2009 - 2013
Table 39 – Mobile subscribers per major operator (historic) – 2001 - 2007
Table 40 – Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration rate (historic) – 1995 - 2000
Table 41 – Telecom Mobile and Vodafone annual call minutes (historic) – 2006 - 2009
Table 42 – Telecom and Vodafone network termination rates – 2009 - 2014
Table 43 – Overview of prepaid calling rates per major operator – 2013
Table 44 – Mobile market revenue – 2008 - 2014
Table 45 – Annual change in mobile market revenue by MNO – 2008 - 2013
Table 46 – Mobile revenue market share by MNO – 2008 - 2013
Table 47 – Mobile market revenue by MNO (historic) – 1997 - 2007
Table 48 – Annual change in mobile market revenue by MNO (historic) – 1998 - 2007
Table 49 – Mobile revenue market share by MNO (historic) – 1997 - 2007
Table 50 – SMS messages sent – 2009 - 2012
Table 51 – SMS revenue – 2009 - 2012
Table 52 – Fixed-broadband penetration by access method – 2007 - 2012
Table 53 – Fixed-broadband subscribers – 2006 - 2014
Table 54 – Dial-up internet subscribers – 2011 - 2014
Table 55 – Unbundled lines – 2007 - 2014
Table 56 – Wholesale broadband lines (excl. Telecom) – 2006 - 2013
Table 57 –Estimated number of ISPs and internet penetration rate – 2000 - 2013
Table 58 – Internet users and subscribers – 2000 - 2013
Table 59 – ISP share of broadband subscribers – June 2012
Table 60 – Internet subscribers by market segment – 2006 - 2013
Table 61 – Market share of ISPs by size – 2007 - 2013
Table 62 – Proportion of internet subscribers by download speed – 2011 - 2013
Table 63 – Internet subscribers by download speed – 2010 - 2012
Table 64 – Internet subscribers by upload speed – 2010 - 2012
Table 65 – Internet subscribers by download plan limits – 2009 - 2012
Table 66 – Proportion of internet subscribers by download plan limits – 2011 - 2013
Table 67 – Internet subscriber numbers by download speed (historic) – 2007 - 2009
Table 68 – Estimates of residential broadband subscribers by major provider – 2010 - 2013
Table 69 – Annual change of residential broadband subscribers by major provider – 2009 - 2013
Table 70 – Fixed-broadband subscribers by platform – 2005 - 2013
Table 71 – Telecom total broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2013
Table 72 – Telecom broadband retail and wholesale subscribers – 2009 - 2013
Table 73 – Overview of UFB rollout by premise type and users available – 2013 - 2019
Table 74 – Broadband penetration – wireless versus fixed-line access – 2005 - 2013
Table 75 – Mobile handset internet connections – 2011 - 2013
Table 76 – Woosh Wireless subscribers – 2005 - 2013
Table 77 – Woosh Wireless key financial results overview – 2004 - 2012
Table 78 – Woosh Wireless capex versus opex – 2009 - 2011
Table 79 – Zenbu subscribers, WiFi zones and data throughput – 2007 - 2012
Table 80 – Budget allocation for UFB investment – 2009 - 2013
Table 81 – Estimated New Zealand population shopping online – 2008 - 2014
Table 82 – Top 5 e-commerce sites in New Zealand by popularity – 2011 - 2013
Table 83 – Information, e-commerce or social media websites in New Zealand in top 20 – 2011 - 2012
Table 84 – Overview of Facebook users in New Zealand – 2009 - 2013
Table 85 – Fixed lines in operation by division – 2008 - 2013
Table 86 – Annual change in fixed lines by division – 2009 - 2013
Table 87 – Gen-i revenue by type -line subscribers by type – 2010 - 2013
Table 88 – Gen-i fixed-line subscribers by type – 2010 - 2013
Table 89 – Telecom mobile monthly ARPU – pre/postpaid voice and data – 2009 - 2013
Table 90 – Annual change in monthly ARPU by market sector – 2010 - 2013
Table 91 – Telecom fixed lines and market share – 2010 - 2013
Table 92 – Environmental KPIs – 2009 - 2013
Table 93 - Chorus key financial operating results – 2009 - 2013
Table 94 - Chorus operating revenue by segment – 2012 - 2013
Table 95 - Chorus capital expenditure by market segment and market spend mix – 2012 - 2013
Table 96 - Chorus fixed-line connections – 2012 - 2013
Table 97 - Chorus broadband connections – 2012 - 2013
Table 98 – Chorus operational inputs – wholesale prices by line segment – 2012; 2014
Table 99 – Chorus fibre wholesale prices by segment – 2012
Table 100 – Historic - Vodafone NZ revenue and annual change – 1996 - 2004
Table 101 – Vodafone NZ revenue and annual change – 2005 - 2013
Table 102 – Vodafone NZ annual profit and annual change – 2003 - 2013
Table 103 – Vodafone NZ average monthly ARPU – pre/postpaid and total – 2003 - 2013
Table 104 – Historic - Vodafone subscriber statistics – 1998 - 2004
Table 105 – Vodafone subscriber statistics – 1998 - 2013
Table 106 – Vodafone prepaid versus postpaid subscribers – 2006 - 2013
Table 107 – Vodafone fixed-line subscribers – 2011 - 2013
Table 108 – M2 NZ Limited key financial statistics overview – 2009 - 2011
Table 109 – Cost of accessing the protected circuits of the SX cable – 2000 - 2013
Table 110 – Broadcasting statistics overview – FTA TV – 2013
Table 111 – Overview of TVNZ key financial parameters ($ million) – 2011 - 2013
Table 112 – Freeview household viewers and penetration rate – 2009 - 2013
Table 113 – Percentage of digital TV households by region – 2011 - 2013
Table 114 – Digital TV breakup by service provider/technology –- 2010 - 2013
Table 115 – Pay TV broadcasting statistics – 2008 - 2013
Table 116 – SKY Network Television financial overview – 2010 - 2013
Table 117 – SKY Network Television operational overview – 2010 - 2013
Table 118 – Historic - SKY Network Television total UHF, DBS & other subscribers – 1993 - 2004
Table 119 – SKY Network Television total UHF, DBS & other subscribers – 2005 - 2013
Table 120 – SKY Network Television average monthly ARPU (historic) – 2005 - 2008
Table 121 – Historic - SKY Network Television revenue & annual change – 1997 - 2004
Table 122 – SKY Network Television revenue & annual change – 2005 - 2013

Chart 1 – Overview of subscribers by network operator – 2007 - 2013
Chart 2 – Overview of key telecoms subscribers by sector – 2006 - 2013
Chart 3 – Overview of fixed access lines – 2006 - 2013
Chart 4 – Overview of monthly porting of local and mobile numbers (by month) – 2008 - 2013
Chart 5 – Overview of 2degrees key financial performance indicators – 2008 - 2012
Chart 6 – Overview of mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration rate – 2005 - 2014
Chart 7 – Overview of mobile market share by major operator – 2005 - 2013
Chart 8 – Overview of Telecom and Vodafone prepaid versus postpaid subscribers – 2005 - 2013
Chart 9 – Overview of ISPs versus penetration rate – 2001 - 2013
Chart 10 – Internet users and subscribers – 2000 - 2013
Chart 11 – Market share of ISPs by market size – 2007 - 2013
Chart 12 – Overview of broadband subscribers – annual changes by technology – 2005 - 2013
Chart 13 – Overview of Telecom broadband connections and revenue – 2009 - 2013
Chart 14 – Overview of key financial results – Woosh Wireless – 2004 - 2011
Chart 15 – Overview of population who have shopped online in New Zealand – 2008 - 2014
Chart 16 – The rise and fall of renewable energy use in New Zealand – 1987 - 2025
Chart 17 – Overview of fixed lines in operation by division – 2008 - 2013
Chart 18 – Gen-i revenue by type -line subscribers by type – 2010 – 2013
Chart 19 – Overview of Telecom pre/postpaid voice, data mobile monthly ARPU – 2009 - 2013
Chart 20- Chorus key financial operating results – 2009 – 2013
Chart 21 – Overview of Vodafone NZ revenue and annual change – 2005 - 2013
Chart 22 – Overview of Vodafone NZ subscribers and annual change – 2005 - 2013
Chart 23 – Overview of Vodafone NZ prepaid versus postpaid subscribers – 2006 - 2013
Chart 24 – Overview of TVNZ key performance indicators – 2011 - 2013
Chart 25 – SKY Network Television financial overview – 2010 – 2013
Chart 26 – Overview of Sky key performance indicators – 2005 - 2013

Exhibit 1 – Livestock, farmers and the IoT
Exhibit 2 – Smartphones and realtime traffic updates
Exhibit 3 – UBA services background information
Exhibit 4 – Regulatory timeline – scheduled UBA and other services launch by service variant
Exhibit 5 – Overview of licensed versus unlicensed spectrum
Exhibit 6 – Overview of managed spectrum parks
Exhibit 7 – Anticipated ASO timetable
Exhibit 8 – Liable people (operators) for the TDL levy – 2012
Exhibit 9 – Possible liable people (operators) for the TDL levy – 2012
Exhibit 10 – 2degrees Mobile at a glance
Exhibit 11 – 2degrees background startup information
Exhibit 12 – Frequencies of mobile network operators in Australia and New Zealand – 2013
Exhibit 13 – Orcon company acquisitions – 2000 - 2010
Exhibit 14 – The 33 UFB candidature regions by UFB LFC deployment company
Exhibit 15 – Brief overview of UFB deployment by area – 2010 - 2013
Exhibit 16 – Brief overview of RBI deployment – 2011 - 2013
Exhibit 17 – The Retail Service providers by LFC Chorus Limited – 2013
Exhibit 18 – The Retail Service providers of LFC Enable Networks – 2013
Exhibit 19 – The Retail Service providers of LFC Northpower Fibre – 2013
Exhibit 20 – The Retail Service providers of LFC Ultrafast Fibre – 2013
Exhibit 21 – Background information on IPSTAR deployment in New Zealand
Exhibit 22 – Compass Communications at a glance
Exhibit 23 – Compass Communications – brief company history
Exhibit 24 – Kordia at a glance
Exhibit 25 – Woosh at a glance
Exhibit 26 – Brief history timeline of e-government strategies in New Zealand
Exhibit 27 – Previous government initiatives (historic) – Digital Strategy 2.0
Exhibit 28 – Historical overview of IPTV developments
Exhibit 29 - Telecom Corporation New Zealand at a glance including key highlights
Exhibit 30 – Telecom’s five-year strategic plan historic overview
Exhibit 31 – Overview of the operational separation strategy – 2011
Exhibit 32 – Overview of Telecom New Zealand initial demerger details
Exhibit 33 – The Internet Protocol/Multiprotocol Label switched network
Exhibit 34 – Overview of the AAPT network
Exhibit 35 – AAPT – PowerTel – historical background information
Exhibit 36 – Background information on the Unbundled Bitstream Access (UBA) service
Exhibit 37 – Overview of subsidiary companies – 2013
Exhibit 38 – Overview of associate companies – 2013
Exhibit 39 - Chorus Limited at a glance
Exhibit 40 – Overview of Telecom New Zealand initial demerger details
Exhibit 41 – Telecom and the roadside cabinet program – a brief overview
Exhibit 42 – Vodafone New Zealand Ltd at a glance
Exhibit 43 – Pacific Fibre, the second submarine cable fails to materialize
Exhibit 44 – Background on Vodafone UFB / RBI
Exhibit 45 – CallPlus at a glance
Exhibit 46 – M2 Telecommunications Group Limited (M2) at a glance
Exhibit 47 – Major submarine cable networks landing in Zealand
Exhibit 48 – Television New Zealand (TVNZ) at a glance – 2013
Exhibit 49 – Television and Radio available as Freeview services – 2013
Exhibit 50 – Digital TV conversion from analogue – shutdown by region – 2012 - 2013
Exhibit 51 – SKY Network Television at a glance – 2013
Exhibit 52 – SKY Network Television – brief company history – 1990 - 2013

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
New Zealand Telecoms Market To Reach To Nz$5.35 Billion In 2014

New Zealand telecoms market to reach to NZ$5.35 billion in 2014The Telecoms Market Moving Into 2014

Activity in the UFB market is progressing steadily, with a growing number of connections to schools, businesses and consumers. Premises are migrating from copper to fibre, and with it consumers are able to make greater use of IP-delivered content and services provided by faster speeds. Activity in the other telecoms markets has developed following the launch of LTE services by both Vodafone and Telecom.

The fixed-line voice market (voice calls and local access) continues to lose overall share of the telecom services market, partly caused by the drop in call prices and volumes as the uptake of mobile and other P2P services continues.

The fibre-backbone network will become the predominant infrastructure and it will provide its services to the other market sectors including energy, manufacturing, healthcare, education, as well as the rural sector through wireless access. With all these sectors involved we will see the telco businesses morph from the traditional telephony access provider to content service providers. Telcos, ISPs and the other service providers will have an opportunity to become the ICT providers to these market sectors.

The larger sectors, in particular, will create a large demand for value-added infrastructure services. All of this will assist the industry to double its size to more than $14 billion by 2020. In this report we provide scenario-based forecast for the mobile sector as well as some market forecasts and background information on the other markets in the economy.

Mobile Communications

In late 2013 Telecom launched commercial LTE services, competing with Vodafone which had launched the South Island’s first LTE network earlier in the year, complementing an existing service in Auckland.

Mobile market penetration, at around 120-125%, is growing steadily as operators provide add-on packs attracting increased usage at a lower cost. With spectrum auctions allowing for the expansion of LTE networks, and further regional deployment of 3G coverage under the RBI, we expect to see steady subscriber growth across the networks.

New Zealand’s third mobile operator 2degrees has enjoyed solid subscriber growth since launching services in 2009. The operator has around 20% overall market share of subscribers and a 12% share of mobile services revenue. Having secured spectrum in the 700MHz band in late 2013, the company may nevertheless find it difficult to compete against Vodafone and Telecom after the remaining block of 2x5MHz spectrum is auctioned: if either of the main players secure this block they would have twice the allocation of 2degrees.

Further consumer take-up of mobile broadband services is anticipated following the auction of digital dividend spectrum in the 700MHz band, as this spectrum is put to use to deliver mobile data.

Broadband

New Zealand has enjoyed one of the highest yearly increases in fixed broadband penetration in recent years. The overall number of broadband subscribers grew by just under 10% in 2013, maintaining the momentum seen since 2010. The principal growth areas have been in the mobile broadband and fibre sectors. The number of fibre subscribers will continue to increase substantially over the coming years as the ultra-fast broadband service for urban dwellers sees increased uptake among consumers.

The uptake of mobile broadband will be bolstered by the expansion of mobile technologies based on LTE, and be supported by the Rural Broadband Initiative rollout which will add a large number of mobile cells to new areas. Although growth in the number of mobile broadband subscribers will slow as mobile penetration becomes further saturated, a further stimulant is expected from the impetus of the younger demographic migrating from fixed-line to mobile-only broadband services.

The uptake of fibre was slow during the first year of deployment as such new developments must compete with existing technologies and many customers have waited for existing contracts with ISPs to expire before switching to a new provider.

The number of mobile broadband subscribers increased by around 10% in 2013, while the number of mobile internet handset connections grew by almost 30%. Higher growth rates have been stymied by the lack of ubiquitous mobile broadband coverage, as well as the high cost of such services on a short-term basis. Some of these issues should be addressed in coming years through the extension of services based on LTE by Vodafone and Telecom, and by their anticipated introduction from 2degrees in 2014. The national availability of reliable and fast mobile broadband services will be crucial if all citizens are to take advantage of new opportunities offered.

Competition in the delivery of mobile broadband from the telcos is pushing down prices while contributing to even greater regional coverage. The commitment from the government and the ongoing multi-million dollar investment in delivering widespread access to high-speed broadband may present a further hurdle for wireless providers, given that the national UFB/RBI infrastructure will close most of the gaps in coverage.

Digital Economy and Digital Media

The digital economy across New Zealand will have the necessary infrastructure for development to ignite e-government, e-commerce and digital media across the country once the Ultra-fast broadband / Rural Broadband Initiative (UFB/RBI) is completed during the next 5-10 years.

By the end of 2014 almost 400,000 premises will be connected to the network, increasing to about 1.2 million by 2019. Businesses and residences will be able to access data rates ten times faster than current rates, enabling them to operate services in the cloud and take better advantage of opportunities within the global market place. The digital economy will be driven by some of the digital media companies that continue to play an increasingly important role in the telecommunications markets.

Broadcasting

FTA television and the pay TV sector are revising their business models to adapt to the growing trend among consumers to view online content rather than linear TV. The trend has become acute during the last two years as telecom infrastructure has improved, allowing a greater proportion of consumers to take advantage of content from YouTube and other video sites, as well as catch-up services. The broadcasting and digital media industries are having to keep up with these changes in the market place.

Pay TV penetration in New Zealand was around 50% by late 2013. The introduction of the cut-price monthly subscription model, Igloo, in late 2012 may increase household penetration but the real threat is that this model will cannibalise the existing user base as customers churn to cheaper monthly rates. As the UFB consumer base eventually increases other competitive threats by other media models will see uptake of other media based subscription services, lowering the viability of the current model.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

RELATED PRODUCTS

Our Clients

Our clients' logos