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New Zealand - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts - Product Image

New Zealand - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

  • ID: 1452088
  • January 2015
  • Region: New Zealand
  • 193 Pages
  • Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd
New Zealand Telecoms Market To Reach To Nz$5.35 Billion In 2014

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • 2degrees
  • CFH
  • Ericsson
  • Huawei
  • Paymark
  • TelstraClear
  • MORE

UFB connecting over half a million homes while industry pushes for universal 1Gb/s serviceNew Zealand’s Ultra-Fast Broadband/Rural Broadband Initiative (UFB/RBI) is continuing to make steady progress. This significant infrastructure development, scheduled to be completed by about 2020, will provide the necessary network capabilities to propel the country’s digital economy, enabling key sectors such as e-government, e-commerce and digital media to flourish across the country. By late 2014 about 536,000 premises were connected to the UFB, with some 55,000 premises having signed up for services. About 1.2 million premises will be connected when the project is complete. Rolling out the UFB, undertaken by Chorus and other local operators, has helped to drive investment in telecom infrastructure, which increased from $1.24 billion in 2010/11 to $1.58 billion in 2012/13, before falling to $1.48 billion in 2013/14.

New Zealand has experience steady growth in fixed broadband penetration in recent years. The overall number of broadband subscribers grew by just under 10% in 2013, maintaining the momentum seen since 2010. The principal growth areas have been in the mobile broadband READ MORE >

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • 2degrees
  • CFH
  • Ericsson
  • Huawei
  • Paymark
  • TelstraClear
  • MORE

1. The Market Moving into 2015
1.1 Competitive landscape
1.1.1 New Zealand’s 2nd tier players still under pressure
1.1.2 Is consolidation needed for future survival
1.1.3 Fibre will provide more and better access to services
1.2 The UFB and RBI
1.2.1 UFB analysis
1.3 Mobile market
1.3.1 Will TelstraClear’s new owner add value to the market
1.4 Developments in cloud services and big data
1.4.1 Growth in crowdsourced data collection
1.4.2 Big data and the growth in M2M
1.5 Consumer prices
1.5.1 Higher price points leads to lower uptake

2. Statistical Overview of the Market
2.1 Key statistics
2.2 Local access and fixed voice overview
2.2.1 Fixed-line voice market
2.2.2 Smaller players operate in niche markets
2.2.3 Payphones
2.3 VoIP market
2.3.1 Market overview
2.3.2 Market size and estimates
2.3.3 Residential sector
2.3.4 Business sector
2.4 Fixed-Mobile Convergence (FMC)
2.4.1 Introduction
2.4.2 Service bundling
2.4.3 Dual-mode services
2.4.4 Network convergence
2.4.5 International cable updates
2.4.6 Other developments
2.5 Smart grid developments

3. Regulatory Overview
3.1 History
3.2 UBA, UCLL, LLU and UBS access market developments
3.2.1 Determination on wholesale services
3.2.2 Minor changes post Spark and Chorus demerger
3.3 Mobile regulation developments
3.3.1 Mobile Termination Rates (MTRs)
3.3.2 Micropayments using PayforitNZ approved
3.4 Spectrum market
3.4.1 Background information
3.4.2 Spectrum and auctions
3.4.3 Analogue Switchover (ASO)
3.5 Telecommunications Service Obligations (Kiwi Share)
3.5.1 Background
3.5.2 Telecommunications Development Levy – 2010 - 2017
3.5.3 TDL changes
3.6 Telecommunications Relay Service (TRS)
3.6.1 Overview
3.6.2 Cost of the TRS
3.7 Telecommunications Dispute Resolution (TDR)
3.7.1 Scheme overview
3.8 Number Portability (NP)
3.8.1 Overview
3.8.2 Statistics

4. Market Forecasts 2015, 2020
4.1 Market overview
4.1.1 Media market
4.1.2 Total overhaul of the telecoms industry
4.1.3 Infrastructure market
4.1.4 The retail market
4.1.5 The trans-sector market
4.2 The fixed broadband market
4.2.1 Setting the scene
4.2.2 Fixed broadband market forecasts
4.3 The mobile market
4.3.1 Overview of changes
4.3.2 Mobile market scenarios

5. Mobile Communications
5.1 Mobile market overview
5.2 Major mobile operators
5.2.1 Spark Mobile
5.2.2 Vodafone New Zealand
5.2.3 2degrees Mobile
5.3 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
5.3.1 TelstraClear
5.3.2 Black+White
5.3.3 CallPlus/Slingshot
5.3.4 Compass
5.3.5 Orcon
5.4 Mobile market analysis
5.4.1 700MHz Spectrum auction
5.5 Statistics
5.5.1 Operating statistics
5.5.2 Historic statistics
5.5.3 Revenue analysis
5.5.4 Mobile revenue statistics
5.5.5 Number Portability (NP)
5.5.6 Smart device market
5.6 Mobile Messaging
5.6.1 Short Message Service (SMS)
5.7 Mobile content and applications
5.7.1 Mobile data growth
5.7.2 International Mobile Roaming (IMR)
5.7.3 NFC payments
5.7.4 Joint venture for Trusted Service Manager (TSM)
5.7.5 Machine-to-Machine (M2M)

6. The Broadband Market
6.1 Statistics, Overview and Providers
6.1.1 Market overview
6.1.2 The ISP market
6.1.3 Broadband statistics and forecasts
6.1.4 Major broadband service providers
6.2 Fibre developments
6.3 WiFi developments
6.4 Mobile broadband
6.5 Satellite broadband developments
6.6 Ultra-Fast Broadband Market
6.6.1 The UFB and RBI
6.6.2 BuddeComm analysis
6.6.3 Overview of involved parties
6.7 Wireless Broadband
6.7.1 Overview
6.7.2 WiFi
6.7.3 WiMAX
6.7.4 Satellite
6.7.5 Major wireless broadband providers

7. Digital Economay and Digital Media
7.1 The digital economy – a key market driver
7.2 Policies and infrastructure
7.2.1 E-government
7.2.2 The Ultra-Fast Broadband network – getting connected
7.2.3 New Zealand’s current broadband network
7.3 Digital economy in New Zealand
7.3.1 Overview of the indicators
7.4 E-commerce
7.4.1 Overview and statistics
7.4.2 Daily-deal coupon sites still growing in popularity
7.4.3 Trade Me
7.4.4 Global newcomers to e-commerce in New Zealand
7.4.5 Online music
7.5 E-health
7.5.1 Overview
7.5.2 Personal health care records
7.5.3 E-learning
7.6 Smart meters/smart grids
7.6.1 Overview
7.6.2 Renewable energy use target set for 2025
7.6.3 Electric vehicles trials and wireless chargers
7.6.4 Pilots and trials
7.6.5 Smart meters finally getting smart
7.6.6 Smart grids starting to roll out
7.6.7 Auckland network smart meters
7.6.8 Google PowerMeter installed in New Zealand
7.6.9 Smart networks
7.6.10 Smart homes
7.6.11 Time shifting of power usage
7.7 Digital media
7.7.1 IPTV (DSL TV)
7.7.2 Mobile TV
7.7.3 Social networking

8. Major Operators
8.1 Spark New Zealand
8.1.1 Company overview
8.1.2 Background information on the demerger of Chorus and assets
8.1.3 Recent developments – free WiFi, 4G, data roaming reduced
8.1.4 Rebranding
8.1.5 Operations statistical information
8.1.6 Company divisions
8.1.7 Products and services
8.1.8 Subsidiary and associate companies
8.1.9 Environmental developments
8.1.10 Company history
8.1.11 Financial results FY2014
8.1.12 Financial results FY2013
8.2 Vodafone New Zealand
8.2.1 Company overview
8.2.2 Global and Oceania operations
8.2.3 TelstraClear purchased by Vodafone
8.2.4 Company analysis
8.2.5 The networks
8.2.6 Products and services
8.2.7 Wholesale, roaming and partnerships
8.2.8 Financial results
8.2.9 Operating results
8.2.10 Company history
8.3 Overview of the 2nd Tier Telcos
8.3.1 New Zealand’s 2nd tier players squashed
8.3.2 CallPlus
8.3.3 M2 NZ Limited
8.3.4 Southern Cross Cable Network
8.3.5 WxC (WorldxChange Communications)

9. Broadcasting - FTA, Pay TV, Digital TV and Radio - Insights and Statistics
9.1 Overview
9.2 Free-to-Air TV
9.2.1 Television New Zealand (TVNZ)
9.2.2 Maori TV
9.2.3 MediaWorks NZ
9.2.4 Prime Television New Zealand
9.2.5 New Zealand Racing Board
9.3 Digital FTA TV
9.3.1 Freeview
9.3.2 Digital TV changeover
9.4 Pay and cable TV (digital)
9.4.1 Market overview
9.4.2 Igloo
9.4.3 SKY Network Television
9.4.4 TelstraClear (separate report)
9.5 IPTV
9.5.1 Overview
9.5.2 Quickflix
9.5.3 Lightbox TV
9.5.4 TiVo
9.6 Digital radio
9.6.1 Digital Audio Broadcasting (DAB)
9.6.2 Digital radio trials

Table 1 – Telecom services revenue and investment statistics – 2008 – 2014
Table 2 – Estimated cost of building the UFB
Table 3 – Spark mobile subscribers – 2001 - 2014
Table 4 – Vodafone mobile subscribers – 2007 - 2014
Table 5 – 2degrees mobile subscribers – 2009 - 2014
Table 6 – Country statistics – 2014 (e)
Table 7 – Telecom services revenue and investment statistics – 2008 - 2014
Table 8 – Telephone network statistics – 2014 (e)
Table 9 – Internet statistics – 2014 (e)
Table 10 – Broadband statistics – 2014 (e)
Table 11 – Mobile statistics – 2014 (e)
Table 12 – Broadcasting statistics – Pay TV and FTA TV – 2014 (e)
Table 13 – Local access lines by sector – 2006 - 2014
Table 14 – Local access lines and local service and calling revenues – 2002 - 2014
Table 15 – Fixed-line voice traffic use per connection – 2008 - 2014
Table 16 – Fixed-line retail revenue – 2006 - 2014
Table 17 – VoIP plans and calling rates by major provider
Table 18 – Regulated UCLL and UBA pricing – 2014
Table 19 – Spark and Vodafone network termination rates (Cents per minute) – 2011 - 2014
Exhibit 7 – Anticipated ASO timetable
Table 20 – Annual cost of TDL – 2010 - 2017
Table 21 – Sprint payments from TRS/TSO – 2004 - 2014
Table 22 – Size of fixed trans-sector market – 2020
Table 23 – Size of mobile trans-sector market – 2020
Table 24 – Telecommunications services revenue by market – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 25 – Telecommunications services revenue share by market – 2010; 2015; 2020
Table 26 – Forecast DSL subscribers – 2008 - 2015; 2020
Table 27 – Forecast mobile voice subscribers – 2008 - 2015; 2020
Table 28 – Spark mobile service revenue – 2009 - 2014
Table 29 – Spark mobile subscribers – 2001 - 2014
Table 30 – Vodafone mobile subscribers – 2007 - 2014
Table 31 – Vodafone company revenue – 2012 - 2014
Table 32 – 2degrees mobile subscribers – 2009 – 2014
Table 33 – 2degrees key financial performance figures – 2008 - 2013
Table 34 – Mobile data traffic – 2010 - 2014
Table 35 – Mobile data use per connection – 2010 - 2014
Table 36 – Mobile voice traffic – 2006 - 2014
Table 37 – Mobile voice traffic use per connection – 2006 - 2014
Table 38 – Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration rate – 2001 - 2014
Table 39 – Annual change in mobile subscribers per major operator – 2002 - 2013
Table 40 – Historic - Market share of mobile subscribers per operator – 1995 - 2004
Table 41 – Market share of mobile subscribers per operator – 2005 - 2013
Table 42 – Spark and Vodafone prepaid versus postpaid subscribers – 2005 - 2013
Table 43 – Market share of prepaid subscribers by MNO – 2009 - 2013
Table 44 – Mobile subscribers per major operator (historic) – 2001 - 2007
Table 45 – Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration rate (historic) – 1995 - 2000
Table 46 – Spark and Vodafone network termination rates – 2009 - 2014
Table 47 – Mobile market revenue – 2006 - 2014
Table 48 – Annual change in mobile market revenue by MNO – 2008 - 2013
Table 49 – Mobile revenue market share by MNO – 2008 - 2013
Table 50 – Mobile market revenue by MNO (historic) – 1997 - 2007
Table 51 – Annual change in mobile market revenue by MNO (historic) – 1998 - 2007
Table 52 – Mobile revenue market share by MNO (historic) – 1997 - 2007
Table 53 – SMS messages sent – 2009 - 2015
Table 54 – SMS revenue – 2009 - 2015
Table 55 – Fixed-broadband penetration by access method – 2007 - 2014
Table 56 – Fixed-broadband connections by data cap (per month) – 2011 - 2014
Table 57 – Fixed-broadband subscribers – 2006 - 2015
Table 58 – Dial-up internet subscribers – 2011 - 2015
Table 59 – Average data consumption– 2011 - 2015
Table 60 – Proportion of broadband subscriptions by data rate – 2012 - 2013
Table 61 – Unbundled lines – 2007 - 2014
Table 62 – DSL and cable broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2015
Table 63 – Wholesale broadband lines (excl. Spark) – 2006 - 2014
Table 64 –Estimated number of ISPs and internet penetration rate – 2000 - 2014
Table 65 – Internet users and subscribers – 2000 - 2014
Table 66 – ISP share of broadband subscribers – 2012 - 2013
Table 67 – Internet subscribers by market segment – 2006 - 2014
Table 68 – Market share of ISPs by size – 2007 - 2014
Table 69 – Proportion of internet subscribers by download speed – 2011 - 2014
Table 70 – Internet subscriber numbers by download speed (historic) – 2007 - 2009
Table 71 – Internet subscribers by download speed (historic) – 2010 - 2012
Table 72 – Internet subscribers by upload speed (historic) – 2010 - 2012
Table 73 – Internet subscribers by download plan limits – 2010 - 2014
Table 74 – Proportion of internet subscribers by download plan limits – 2011 - 2014
Table 75 – Estimates of retail broadband subscribers by major provider – 2010 - 2013
Table 76 – Annual change of residential retail subscribers by major provider – 2009 - 2013
Table 77 – Fixed-broadband subscribers by platform – 2005 - 2013
Table 78 – Broadband penetration – wireless versus fixed-line access – 2005 - 2014
Table 79 – Spark retail broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2014
Table 80 – Spark broadband subscribers (retail and wholesale) – 2011 - 2014
Table 81 – Wireless broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2014
Table 82 – Wireless broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2014
Table 83 – Mobile broadband revenue – 2009 - 2014
Table 84 – Mobile broadband traffic – 2010 - 2014
Table 85 – Mobile broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2014
Table 86 – Overview of UFB rollout by premise type and users available – 2013 - 2019
Table 87 – Fixed wireless broadband penetration – 2005 - 2014
Table 88 – Mobile handset internet connections – 2011 - 2014
Table 89 – Woosh Wireless subscribers – 2005 - 2013
Table 90 – Woosh Wireless key financial results overview (historic) – 2004 - 2011
Table 91 – Woosh Wireless capex versus opex – 2009 - 2011
Table 92 – Zenbu subscribers, WiFi zones and data throughput – 2007 - 2012
Table 93 – Budget allocation for UFB investment – 2009 - 2013
Table 94 – Estimated New Zealand population shopping online – 2008 - 2014
Table 95 – Top 5 e-commerce sites in New Zealand by popularity – 2011 – 2013; 2015
Table 96 – Information, e-commerce or social media websites in New Zealand in top 20 – 2011 – 2012; 2015
Table 97 – Overview of Facebook users in New Zealand – 2009 - 2014
Table 98 – Fixed lines in operation by division – 2008 - 2014
Table 99 – Annual change in fixed lines by division – 2009 - 2014
Table 100 – Spark Digital revenue by type -line subscribers by type – 2010 - 2014
Table 101 – Spark Digital fixed-line subscribers by type – 2011 - 2014
Table 102 – Spark mobile monthly ARPU – pre/postpaid voice and data – 2009 - 2014
Table 103 – Annual change in monthly ARPU by market sector – 2010 - 2014
Table 104 – Spark fixed lines and market share – 2010 - 2014
Table 105 – Environmental KPIs – 2009 - 2014
Table 106 – Spark key financial operating highlights – 2009 - 2014
Table 107 – Spark key financial operating highlights by annual change – 2009 - 2014
Table 108 – Spark revenue by service division – 2011 - 2014
Table 109 – Spark expenses – 2010 - 2014
Table 110 – Spark capital expenditure – 1999 - 2014
Table 111 – AAPT operations revenue by service – 2011 - 2014
Table 112 – AAPT operations expenses – 2009 - 2014
Table 113 – Historic - Vodafone NZ revenue and annual change – 1996 - 2004
Table 114 – Vodafone NZ revenue and annual change – 2005 - 2014
Table 115 – Vodafone NZ annual profit and annual change – 2003 - 2014
Table 116 – Historic - Vodafone subscriber statistics – 1998 - 2004
Table 117 – Vodafone subscriber statistics – 1998 - 2014
Table 118 – Vodafone prepaid versus postpaid subscribers – 2006 - 2014
Table 119 – Vodafone fixed-line broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2014
Table 120 – M2 NZ Limited key financial statistics overview – 2009 - 2011
Table 121 – Cost of accessing the protected circuits of the SX cable – 2000 - 2013
Table 122 – Broadcasting statistics overview – FTA TV – 2014
Table 123 – TVNZ Ondemand streams – 2011 - 2014
Table 124 – Overview of TVNZ key financial parameters – 2011 - 2014
Table 125 – Freeview household viewers and penetration rate – 2009 - 2014
Table 126 – Percentage of digital TV households by region – 2011 - 2013
Table 127 – Digital TV breakup by service provider/technology –- 2010 - 2013
Table 128 – Pay TV broadcasting statistics – 2008 - 2014
Table 129 – SKY Network Television financial overview – 2010 - 2014
Table 130 – SKY Network Television operational overview – 2010 - 2013
Table 131 – SKY Network Television operational overview – 2010 - 2014
Table 132 – SKY Network Television viewing hours overview – 2010 - 2014
Table 133 – Historic - SKY Network Television total UHF, DBS, other subscribers – 1993 - 2004
Table 134 – SKY Network Television total UHF, DBS & other subscribers – 2005 - 2013
Table 135 – SKY Network Television average monthly ARPU – 2005 - 2008; 2013 - 2014
Table 136 – Historic - SKY Network Television revenue, annual change – 1997 - 2004
Table 137 – SKY Network Television revenue, annual change – 2005 - 2014

Chart 1 – Overview of key telecoms subscribers by sector – 2006 - 2014
Chart 2 – Overview of fixed access lines – 2006 - 2014
Chart 3 – Overview of 2degrees key financial performance indicators – 2008 - 2013
Chart 4 – Overview of mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration rate – 2005 - 2014
Chart 5 – Overview of mobile market share by major operator – 2005 - 2013
Chart 6 – Internet users and subscribers – 2000 - 2014
Chart 7 – Market share of ISPs by market size – 2007 - 2014
Chart 8 – Overview of broadband subscribers – annual changes by technology – 2005 - 2013
Chart 9 – Overview of Spark broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2014
Chart 10 – Overview of key financial results – Woosh Wireless – 2004 - 2011
Chart 11 – The rise and fall of renewable energy use in New Zealand – 1987 - 2025
Chart 12 – Overview of fixed lines in operation by division – 2008 - 2014
Chart 13 – Spark Digital revenue by type -line subscribers by type – 2010 – 2014
Chart 14 – Overview of Spark pre/postpaid voice, data mobile monthly ARPU – 2009 - 2014
Chart 15 – Overview of Spark key financial operating highlights – 2009 - 2014
Chart 16 – Overview of Spark revenue by main service divisions – 2011 - 2014
Chart 17 – Overview of AAPT operations revenue by service – 2011 - 2014
Chart 18 – Overview of AAPT operations expenses – 2009 - 2014
Chart 19 – Overview of Vodafone NZ revenue and annual change – 2005 - 2014
Chart 20 – Overview of Vodafone NZ subscribers and annual change – 2005 - 2014
Chart 21 – Overview of Vodafone NZ prepaid versus postpaid subscribers – 2006 - 2014
Chart 22 – Overview of TVNZ key performance indicators – 2011 - 2014
Chart 23 – SKY Network Television financial overview – 2010 – 2014
Chart 24 – Overview of Sky key performance indicators – 2005 - 2014

Exhibit 1 – Livestock, farmers and the IoT
Exhibit 2 – Smartphones and realtime traffic updates
Exhibit 3 – UBA services background information
Exhibit 4 – Regulatory timeline – scheduled UBA and other services launch by service variant
Exhibit 5 – Overview of licensed versus unlicensed spectrum
Exhibit 6 – Overview of managed spectrum parks
Exhibit 8 – Liable people (operators) for the TDL levy
Exhibit 9 – 2degrees Mobile at a glance
Exhibit 10 – 2degrees background start-up information
Exhibit 11 – Frequencies of mobile network operators in Australia and New Zealand – 2013
Exhibit 12 – Orcon company acquisitions – 2000 - 2010
Exhibit 13 – The 33 UFB candidature regions by UFB LFC deployment company
Exhibit 14 – Brief overview of UFB deployment by area
Exhibit 15 – Brief overview of RBI deployment
Exhibit 16 – The Retail Service providers by LFC Chorus Limited
Exhibit 17 – The Retail Service providers of LFC Enable Networks
Exhibit 18 – The Retail Service providers of LFC Northpower Fibre
Exhibit 19 – The Retail Service providers of LFC Ultrafast Fibre
Exhibit 20 – Background information on IPSTAR deployment in New Zealand
Exhibit 21 – Compass Communications at a glance
Exhibit 22 – Compass Communications – brief company history
Exhibit 23 – Kordia at a glance
Exhibit 24 – Woosh at a glance
Exhibit 25 – Brief history timeline of e-government strategies in New Zealand
Exhibit 26 – Previous government initiatives (historic) – Digital Strategy 2.0
Exhibit 27 – Historical overview of IPTV developments
Exhibit 28 – Spark New Zealand at a glance including key highlights
Exhibit 29 – Spark’s five-year strategic plan historic overview
Exhibit 30 – Overview of the operational separation strategy
Exhibit 31 – Overview of Spark New Zealand initial demerger details
Exhibit 32 – The Internet Protocol/Multiprotocol Label switched network
Exhibit 33 – Overview of the AAPT network
Exhibit 34 – AAPT – PowerTel – historical background information
Exhibit 35 – Background information on the Unbundled Bitstream Access (UBA) service
Exhibit 36 – Overview of subsidiary companies – 2014
Exhibit 37 – Overview of associate companies – 2014
Exhibit 38 – Vodafone New Zealand at a glance
Exhibit 39 – Pacific Fibre, the second submarine cable fails to materialize
Exhibit 40 – Background on Vodafone UFB / RBI
Exhibit 41 – CallPlus at a glance
Exhibit 42 – M2 Telecommunications Group Limited (M2) at a glance
Exhibit 43 – Major submarine cable networks landing in Zealand
Exhibit 44 – Television New Zealand (TVNZ) at a glance
Exhibit 45 – Television and Radio available as Freeview services
Exhibit 46 – Digital TV conversion from analogue – shutdown by region – 2012 - 2013
Exhibit 47 – SKY Network Television at a glance – 2013
Exhibit 48 – SKY Network Television – brief company history – 1990 - 2014

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • 2degrees
  • CFH
  • Ericsson
  • Huawei
  • Paymark
  • TelstraClear
  • MORE

New Zealand telecoms market to reach to NZ$5.35 billion in 2014The Telecoms Market Moving Into 2014

Activity in the UFB market is progressing steadily, with a growing number of connections to schools, businesses and consumers. Premises are migrating from copper to fibre, and with it consumers are able to make greater use of IP-delivered content and services provided by faster speeds. Activity in the other telecoms markets has developed following the launch of LTE services by both Vodafone and Telecom.

The fixed-line voice market (voice calls and local access) continues to lose overall share of the telecom services market, partly caused by the drop in call prices and volumes as the uptake of mobile and other P2P services continues.

The fibre-backbone network will become the predominant infrastructure and it will provide its services to the other market sectors including energy, manufacturing, healthcare, education, as well as the rural sector through wireless access. With all these sectors involved we will see the telco businesses morph from the traditional telephony access provider to content service providers. Telcos, ISPs and the other service providers will have an opportunity to become the ICT providers to these market sectors.

The larger sectors, in particular, will create a large demand for value-added infrastructure services. All of this will assist the industry to double its size to more than $14 billion by 2020. In this report we provide scenario-based forecast for the mobile sector as well as some market forecasts and background information on the other markets in the economy.

Mobile Communications

In late 2013 Telecom launched commercial LTE services, competing with Vodafone which had launched the South Island’s first LTE network earlier in the year, complementing an existing service in Auckland.

Mobile market penetration, at around 120-125%, is growing steadily as operators provide add-on packs attracting increased usage at a lower cost. With spectrum auctions allowing for the expansion of LTE networks, and further regional deployment of 3G coverage under the RBI, we expect to see steady subscriber growth across the networks.

New Zealand’s third mobile operator 2degrees has enjoyed solid subscriber growth since launching services in 2009. The operator has around 20% overall market share of subscribers and a 12% share of mobile services revenue. Having secured spectrum in the 700MHz band in late 2013, the company may nevertheless find it difficult to compete against Vodafone and Telecom after the remaining block of 2x5MHz spectrum is auctioned: if either of the main players secure this block they would have twice the allocation of 2degrees.

Further consumer take-up of mobile broadband services is anticipated following the auction of digital dividend spectrum in the 700MHz band, as this spectrum is put to use to deliver mobile data.

Broadband

New Zealand has enjoyed one of the highest yearly increases in fixed broadband penetration in recent years. The overall number of broadband subscribers grew by just under 10% in 2013, maintaining the momentum seen since 2010. The principal growth areas have been in the mobile broadband and fibre sectors. The number of fibre subscribers will continue to increase substantially over the coming years as the ultra-fast broadband service for urban dwellers sees increased uptake among consumers.

The uptake of mobile broadband will be bolstered by the expansion of mobile technologies based on LTE, and be supported by the Rural Broadband Initiative rollout which will add a large number of mobile cells to new areas. Although growth in the number of mobile broadband subscribers will slow as mobile penetration becomes further saturated, a further stimulant is expected from the impetus of the younger demographic migrating from fixed-line to mobile-only broadband services.

The uptake of fibre was slow during the first year of deployment as such new developments must compete with existing technologies and many customers have waited for existing contracts with ISPs to expire before switching to a new provider.

The number of mobile broadband subscribers increased by around 10% in 2013, while the number of mobile internet handset connections grew by almost 30%. Higher growth rates have been stymied by the lack of ubiquitous mobile broadband coverage, as well as the high cost of such services on a short-term basis. Some of these issues should be addressed in coming years through the extension of services based on LTE by Vodafone and Telecom, and by their anticipated introduction from 2degrees in 2014. The national availability of reliable and fast mobile broadband services will be crucial if all citizens are to take advantage of new opportunities offered.

Competition in the delivery of mobile broadband from the telcos is pushing down prices while contributing to even greater regional coverage. The commitment from the government and the ongoing multi-million dollar investment in delivering widespread access to high-speed broadband may present a further hurdle for wireless providers, given that the national UFB/RBI infrastructure will close most of the gaps in coverage.

Digital Economy and Digital Media

The digital economy across New Zealand will have the necessary infrastructure for development to ignite e-government, e-commerce and digital media across the country once the Ultra-fast broadband / Rural Broadband Initiative (UFB/RBI) is completed during the next 5-10 years.

By the end of 2014 almost 400,000 premises will be connected to the network, increasing to about 1.2 million by 2019. Businesses and residences will be able to access data rates ten times faster than current rates, enabling them to operate services in the cloud and take better advantage of opportunities within the global market place. The digital economy will be driven by some of the digital media companies that continue to play an increasingly important role in the telecommunications markets.

Broadcasting

FTA television and the pay TV sector are revising their business models to adapt to the growing trend among consumers to view online content rather than linear TV. The trend has become acute during the last two years as telecom infrastructure has improved, allowing a greater proportion of consumers to take advantage of content from YouTube and other video sites, as well as catch-up services. The broadcasting and digital media industries are having to keep up with these changes in the market place.

Pay TV penetration in New Zealand was around 50% by late 2013. The introduction of the cut-price monthly subscription model, Igloo, in late 2012 may increase household penetration but the real threat is that this model will cannibalise the existing user base as customers churn to cheaper monthly rates. As the UFB consumer base eventually increases other competitive threats by other media models will see uptake of other media based subscription services, lowering the viability of the current model.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

- 2degrees
- Airnet
- Black+White
- CFH
- CallPlus
- CallPlus
- CityLink
- Clear Mobitel
- Compass
- Enable
- Ericsson
- Fairfax
- Fyx
- Gemalto
- Groupon
- Huawei
- Maxnet
- NOW
- Northpower
- Orcon
- Paymark
- Skinny
- Snap
- Spark New Zealand
- TVNZ
- TelstraClear
- TelstraClear
- Trade Me
- Vector
- Velocity Networks
- Vocus
- Vodafone New Zealand
- WEL
- WorldxChange Communications
- Ziln TV

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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