South Korea Telecommunications Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, April 2012, Pages: 93
South Korea Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Korea's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q212 report on South Korea’s telecommunications market provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developments to occur within the country’s mobile, fixed-line telephony, and internet sectors. Our forecasts are based on latest data published by South Korea’s leading operators – SK Telecom, SK Broadband, KT, and LG Uplus, as well as the Korea Communications Commission and the Internet Statistics Information System.
The number of South Korean mobile subscribers increased to 53.251mn at the end of 2011. Despite the growth, the number of net additions in 2011 (2.106mn) was significantly weaker than the previous year (2.914mn). Market saturation is a major factor and we continue to see muted growth through our forecast period to 2016. We envisage 59.076mn mobile subscribers in South Korea in end-2016, a penetration rate of 119.9%. We see the introduction of LTE services resulting in subscriber migration from 2G/3G without a significant effect on the overall subscriber growth. It is a similar scenario in the fixed-line market with the adoption of VoIP offsetting declining interest in PSTN connections. Meanwhile, mobile broadband solutions are threatening fixed alternatives. At the end of 2016, we forecast 28,377mn fixed broadband subscribers, an equivalent of 57.6% penetration rate.
KT was the last South Korean mobile operator to launch LTE services. The operator launched commercial services in January 2012 after receiving a favourable verdict from the Seoul High Court in December 2011. Consequently, KT was able to refarm its spectrum to push out next generation technologies. Previously, a lower court ruled in favour of 900 subscribers who filed a lawsuit to prevent KT from switching off its 2G network.
Competition in South Korea’s mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) market could move a notch higher after HomePlus, the South Korean retailer owned by the Samsung Group and UK's Tesco, announced in early January 2012 that it could become an MVNO by H112. We believe that the potential entry of HomePlus, which has an extensive distribution network of 374 grocery retail stores, should help spur growth in the nascent industry, and create a viable alternative to the elusive fourth mobile operator.
In a clear sign that South Korea's export engine is starting to weaken, the country's current account registered a deficit of US$772.2mn in January, its first shortfall since February 2010. This was to be expected, given that earlier trade figures showed January export growth dipped into contractionary territory. We acknowledge that the Lunar New Year festivities, which have had a regional effect on trade activity, may have been at play. However, we believe South Korea's export sector is set for further weakness in the coming quarters, contrary to market observers who suggest that the worst may be over for the country. More than 40% of the export sector has exposure to China and Western Europe, regions for which our growth outlook remain bleak. Additionally, the economy faces downside pressure from rising oil prices, given its status as the world's fifth largest oil importer. Should oil prices remain persistently high, the oil import bill could place pressure on the current account, increasing the prospect for further deficits.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
South Korea Mobile SWOT
South Korea Wireline SWOT
South Korea Political SWOT
South Korea Economic SWOT
South Korea Business Environment SWOT
Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific
Table: Asia Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings
South Korea
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: South Korea Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
ARPU
Table: South Korea Telecoms Sector – ARPU – Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line
Industry Trends – Fixed-Line Sector
Internet
Table: South Korea Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: South Korean Mobile Market Net Additions, Q411
Table: South Korean Mobile Market, December 2011
ARPU
MVNOs
3G
4G LTE
Mobile Contract Wins
Selected Contract Wins, 2011-2012
Mobile Operator Data
Table: South Korea Mobile Market Overview
Table: SK Telecom
Table: KT
Table: LG Uplus
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Selected NFC Developments, 2011
Country Outlook
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services, 2011-2012
Fixed Line
Table: South Korean Local Access Market (PSTN + VoIP), December 2011
Broadband
Table: South Korean Broadband Market, November2011
Table: South Korea Broadband Access Types By Operator, November 2011
IPTV
WiBro
Wireline Developments
Table: Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments
Regulatory Environment And Industry Developments
Table: Division Of Regulatory Responsibility In South Korea
Legislation
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Competitor Analysis
Table: Key Players – South Korea Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2003-2011 (US$mn)
Company Monitor
Alcatel-Lucent
Opportunity For Improvement
Alcatel-Lucent's Recent Major Contracts In Asia
Operator Profiles
KT Corporation
SK Telecom
SK Broadband (Formerly Hanaro Telecom)
LG Uplus
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed-Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: South Korea Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- KT Corporation
- SK Telecom
- SK Broadband (Formerly Hanaro Telecom)
- LG Uplus
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