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400 G, OTN and Next-Generation Transport: A Market and Technology Forecast - Product Image

400 G, OTN and Next-Generation Transport: A Market and Technology Forecast

  • Published: January 2014
  • Region: Global
  • CIR

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Alcatel-Lucent
  • Coriant
  • Infinera
  • Netia
  • Sprint
  • Verizon
  • MORE

Carriers worldwide are outgrowing 100 G transport networks and taking first steps towards 400 G backbones. The author believes these ultra-fast networks will create major new revenue opportunities for optical components firms, silicon chipmakers and equipment companies alike. This new business will come from volume deployments of 400G networks themselves. It will also emerge from radical new directions in modulation, amplification, and multiplexing technology that will create openings for companies with novel WDM/OTN platforms of all kinds.

Many questions remain. How many carriers will jump to 400 G immediately? Which ones will be satisfied with 200 G cores for a few years, before shifting to 400 G transport networks? Which enabling technologies are available and will be deployed by equipment firms to make 400 G possible? And how will these equipment suppliers design their next-generation routers and switches to make them 400 G ready?

The answers to these questions will shape where and how the money will be made in the next few years in optical transport business. In this new report the author provides these answers, drawing on the evidence that is emerging from the slew READ MORE >

Executive Summary
E.1 Three Factors Driving 400G Backbones: Bandwidth Hunger, Applications and the 100G Paradigm
E.1.1 Mobile Broadband: A New Paradigm for Network Traffic
E.2 Opportunities Created in the Transport Layer: The Need for Intelligence at Every Level
E.2.1 Role of Software Defined Networks: A Key Enabling Technology?
E.2.2 Danger of Market Overshoot

E.3 Component Level Opportunities
E.3.1 The Growing Power of DSP and Waveform Engineering
E.3.2 Proprietary Network Processors in a 400G Environment
E.3.3 Integration and Opportunities for Optical Components Firms at 400G
E.4 The Optical Networking Equipment Perspective on 400G
E.4.1 Four Factors That Will Shape the 400G Optical Platform Market
E.4.2 Five Firms that will Shape the 400G Transport Space
E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of 400G Transport Markets

Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report: Outstanding Questions About 400G Transport Deployment
1.1.1 Trials and Addressable Markets for 400G Transport Aren't the Same Thing
1.1.2 Service and Standards Environments Add More Uncertainties for 400G Transport

1.1.3 Equipment and Components Firms: Together Again at 400G?
1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Analysis of Enabling Technologies and Standards for 400G Transport
2.1 Multiplexing, Switching and Routing Options in the 400G Transport Environment
2.1.1 OTN Boxes, Routers and Optical Packet Switching in 400G Network
2.1.2 Differing Visions of 400G: Sometimes 400G is 200G and Sometimes It is 500G
2.1.3 WDM, Superchannels and Bandwidth Allocation
2.1.4 A Role for Space Division at 400 Gbps?
2.2 New Directions for Modulation in the 400G Environment
2.2.1 DPSK, QPSK, BPSK and PM-QSP
2.2.2 DP-16 QAM and Beyond
2.3 Raman Technology in 400G Backbones
2.4 400 Gbps Coherent Technology: the Once and Future
2.5 Standards
2.5.1 ITU-T, OTN at 400 Gbps
2.5.2 Optical Internetworking Forum (OIF)
2.5.3 IETF
2.5.4 Relevance of the Emerging 400 Gigabit Ethernet Standard for Carriers

Chapter Three: Equipment Vendor Strategies for 400G
3.1 Alcatel-Lucent (France/United States)
3.1.1 Photonic Service Switch (PSS)
3.1.2 Photonic Service Engine (PSE)
3.1.3 FP3 400G Chip
3.1.4 Wavelength Tracker
3.1.5 Nextgen (Australia)
3.1.6 Orange-France Telecom/RENATER (France)
3.1.7 SaskTel (Canada)
3.1.8 Shaw Communications (Canada)
3.1.9 Telefónica España (Spain)
3.1.10 Zain (Saudi Arabia)
3.2 Ciena (United States)
3.2.1 WaveLogic 3
3.2.2 Ciena 6500
3.2.3 BT (United Kingdom)
3.2.4 Sprint (United States)
3.2.5 Comcast (United States)
3.2.6 Verizon (United States)
3.3 Cisco (United States)
3.3.1 NCS Platform
3.3.2 nPower X1 Network Processor
3.4 Coriant (Germany)
3.4.1 FlexiGrid ROADM nodes
3.4.2 hiT 7100 and 7300
3.4.3 Netia (Poland)
3.4.4 Telekom Austria – A1 (Austria)
3.5 Cyan (United States)
3.5.1 GlobalConnect (Denmark)
3.6 Ericsson (Sweden)
3.6.1 MHL 3000 Platform
3.6.2 SPO 1410 Platform
3.6.3 Smart Service Routers 8000
3.6.4 Telefónica España (Spain)
3.7 Fujitsu and NEC (Japan)
3.7.1 NTT (Japan)
3.7.2 Verizon (United States)
3.8 Huawei (China)
3.8.1 NE5000E Router
3.8.2 WDM Transport Solutions
3.8.3 EXATEL (Poland)

3.8.4 Jazztel (Spain)
3.8.5 KPN International (Netherlands)
3.8.6 Mobily (Saudi Arabia)
3.8.7 True (Thailand)
3.8.8 Telefonica Chile (Chile)
3.8.9 400G Photonics Integration Program
3.9 Infinera (United States)
3.9.1 DTN-X
3.9.2 DANTE (Europe)
3.9.3 TeliaSonera (Sweden/Finland)
3.9.4 Zayo (International)
3.10 Juniper (United States)
3.11 TE SubCom (United States)
3.12 Xtera (United States)
3.13 ZTE (China)
3.13.1 Recent 400G Trial
3.13.1 Deutsche Telekom (Germany)

Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts
4.1 Forecasting Methodology
4.1.1 Assumptions About Network Requirements and Sources of Information
4.1.2 Getting to Market in a Hurry: 400G Backbones without Standards
4.1.3 Assumptions about Technology Evolution
4.2 Eight-Year Forecast of 400G Transport Equipment: Core Analysis
4.3 Eight-Year Forecast of 400G Equipment: Breakout by Type of Network
4.4 Eight-Year Forecast of Optical Components for 400G Deployment
4.5 Possible 400 Gbps Service Offerings

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report
About the Author

List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Eight-Year Forecast of 400G Transport Equipment: Core Analysis
Exhibit 2-1: Goals of the 400 Gbps Ethernet Study Group
Exhibit 4-1: Eight-Year Forecast of 400G Transport Equipment: Core Analysis
Exhibit 4-2 Eight-Year Forecast of 400G Equipment: Breakout by Type of Network
Exhibit 4-3: Eight-Year Forecast of Optical Components for 400G Deployment ($ Millions)

New Report Says 400G Transport Market will Reach $528 Million by 2019

Industry analyst firm CIR has announced the release of a new report titled, “400G, OTN and Next-Generation Transport: A Market and Technology Forecast.” The report identifies equipment and component opportunities presented by the deployment of 400G transport in public networks. It also profiles the approximately 25 400G trials underway worldwide. This report also contains eight-year revenue and port forecasts for the 400G transport market with projections for both the equipment and components.

About the report:

The equipment covered in this forecast comprises OTN/WDM boxes, optical packet platforms and core routers. Deployments in metro/regional and long-haul/submarine networks are both included. In the analysis of 400G transport components it focuses on the growing roles of DSP, proprietary network processors, optical integration and WDM superchannels.

Finally, this report provides strategic profiles of major players in 400G transport space including Alcatel-Lucent, BT, Ciena, Cisco, Comcast, Coriant, Cyan, DANTE, Deutsche Telekom, Ericsson, EXATEL, France Telecom, Fujitsu, GlobalConnect, Huawei, Infinera, Jazztel, Juniper, KPN, Mobily, NEC, Netia, Nextgen, NTT, SaskTel, Shaw Communications, Sprint, Telefonica Chile, Telefonica Espana, Telekom Austria, TE SubCom, True, TeliaSonera, Verizon, Xtera, Zain, Zayo and ZTE.

From the report:

Equipment sales for 400G transport networks are expected to reach $528 million by 2019, while total consumption of optical and silicon components for this market is expected to reach almost $195 million by 2019.

Meanwhile, traffic patterns are changing in way that is radically reshaping opportunities in transport networks. By 2019, the author expects metropolitan/regional networks to be buying around $240 million in transport network equipment, only slightly less than that bought for long-haul pipes. In addition, 400G transport bandwidth will be “intelligent.” Thus the author expects 400G transport networks to be designed around Software Defined Network (SDNs) concepts that speed up provisioning time for high data rate services.

Mobile broadband sources do not require much bandwidth individually, but collectively they can easily clog up fat backbones. This situation will only get worse as data from the Internet-of-Things hits the transport network. Mobile broadband traffic is also highly unpredictable. As a result, 400G transport pipes will have to adapt bandwidth to rapidly changing conditions.

The author believes that this need for intelligent 400G transport network will create growing opportunities for network processors and DSP chips. By 2019 shipments of network silicon of this kind will be worth around $47 million, growing to $95 million by 2021. These chipsets will effectively deal with analog/digital conversion, chromatic dispersion, PMD compensation, spectral efficiency, advanced modulation and non-linearities. However, many of the critical chips will be built in house by the equipment vendors.

Finally, the author notes that the move to 400G transport will inevitably lead to the need for many more optical components. As a result, the author believes that all the major platform vendors are going to make optical integration an increasing part of their product design strategy.

For now, the opportunity for integration in the 400G space is all about putting as many functions on an optical chip as possible. These functionalities could include muxes, lasers, modulators, detectors, VOAs, and various control elements. Going forward, new functionalities are going to be integrated into such chips: amplification (SOA) and tunability, for example.

- Alcatel-Lucent
- BT
- Ciena
- Cisco
- Comcast
- Coriant
- Deutsche Telekom
- Ericsson
- Fujitsu
- Huawei
- Infinera
- Jazztel
- KPN International
- Mobily
- NEC
- Netia
- NextGen
- NTT
- Orange-France Telecom/Renater
- SaskTel
- Shaw Communications
- Sprint
- TE Subcom
- Telefonica Chile
- Telef?nica Espana
- Telekom Austria
- Verizon
- WaveLogic 3
- Xtera
- Zain
- ZTE

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