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Future of Communication 2020 - Telco & OTT communication – Market forecasts - Product Image

Future of Communication 2020 - Telco & OTT communication – Market forecasts

  • Published: January 2013
  • 54 Pages
  • IDATE

Communication being ubiquitous and IP-based solutions taking increasingly a bigger part in it, this market still remains essential despite decreasing revenues.

This report provides analyses on quantitative changes until 2020, in terms of usages and revenues. It also describes the latest trends, the re-positioning of telcos in an OTT world.

- What will be the key trends in communication by 2020? Will the total revenue pie of communication shrink or grow?

- How are telco margins evolving for communication? Simple substitution from fixed to mobile or revenue loss?

- In terms of usages, how will communication services evolve until 2020? What about OTT VoIP & SMS?

- What are the impacts of new technologies such as WebRTC or RCSe?

- Can telcos recover their territory from OTT players? Moreover, how much territory are they really losing, if any?

About the Contributors

Soichi NAKAJIMA, Senior Consultant
Soichi joined IDATE as a senior consultant in January 2009. His main area of endeavour is the mobile communications market, such as the mobile Internet, applications, contents and services, the analysis of strategies employed by READ MORE >

1. Executive Summary
1.1. The six key trends shaping the market
1.2. Key developments in usage of communication services
1.3. The quantification of the communication market
2. Methodology
3. Communication 2020 in figures
3.1. Key usage developments by 2020
3.1.1. Mobile users still much more dominant than OTT VoIP users
3.1.2. Messaging users of both telcos and OTTs expected to grow
3.1.3. Number of SMS sent still set to grow, but OTT messages are rapidly catching up
3.2. The quantification of communication revenue by 2020
3.2.1. Overall communication services market expected to see very slight decline over eight years from 2012 to 2020
3.2.2. Increase in mobile communication revenues cannot compensate for the decline in fixed communication revenues
3.2.3. Increase in telco messaging revenues cannot compensate for the decline in telco voice revenues
3.2.4. OTT communication revenues cannot compensate for decline in telco communication revenues
4. The six key trends in communication
4.1. The aggregation of communication types
4.1.1. Introduction
4.1.2. Facebook
4.1.3. Google
4.1.4. WhatsApp
4.1.5. Apple
4.1.6. Operators
4.2. Beyond traditional communication for telcos
4.2.1. Introduction
4.2.2. Operators providing their own OTT service
4.2.3. Partnerships between OTT and operators
4.2.4. joyn (RCSe)
4.3. Voice and messaging becoming a telco commodity
4.3.1. Introduction
4.3.2. Mobile voice and messaging offered in abundance
4.3.3. Fixed voice and Internet access also unlimited
4.3.4. Bundling it all for an even cheaper experience
4.4. Mobile data and WiFi makes strong case for OTTs
4.4.1. Introduction
4.4.2. Unlimited mobile data still rare
4.4.3. WiFi over mobile allows unlimited OTT communication including video
4.5. The rise of video communication
4.5.1. Introduction
4.5.2. Telco video communications
4.5.3. OTT video communications
4.6. Genuinely free OTT offers in exchange of user data
4.6.1. Introduction
4.6.2. Free or low-cost OTT services
4.6.3. Advertising and data usage

Tables
Table 1: Communication providers aggregating communication types
Table 2: Communication providers aggregating communication types

Figures
Figure 1: Fixed telephony lines, mobile subscriptions and OTT VoIP users forecast, USA, 2012-2020
Figure 2: Number of messages sent forecast by type, EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 3: Total communication revenue forecast by market segment, EU5 2012-2020
Figure 4: Telco revenue forecast by market segment, EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 5: Fixed telephony lines, mobile subscriptions and OTT VoIP users forecast, USA, 2012-2020
Figure 6: Fixed telephony lines, mobile subscriptions and OTT VoIP users forecast, EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 7: Messaging users forecast by type of message, USA, 2012-2020
Figure 8: Messaging users forecast by type of message, EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 9: Number of messages sent forecast by type, USA, 2012-2020
Figure 10: Share of messages sent, USA, 2012 and 2020
Figure 11: Number of messages sent forecast by type, EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 12: Share of messages sent, EU5, 2012 and 2020
Figure 13: Total communication revenue forecast by market segment, USA, 2012-2020
Figure 14: Total communication revenue share by market segment, USA, 2012 and 2020
Figure 15: Total communication revenue forecast by market segment, EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 16: Total communication revenue share by market segment, EU5, 2012 and 2020
Figure 17: Telco fixed and mobile communication revenue forecast, USA, 2012-2020
Figure 18: Total fixed telco revenue forecast (both communication and Internet & data), USA, 2012-2020
Figure 19: Total mobile telco revenue forecast (both communication and Internet & data), USA, 2012-2020
Figure 20: Total telco revenues forecast (fixed and mobile, communication and noncommunication), USA, 2012-2020
Figure 21: Telco fixed and mobile communication revenue forecast, EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 22: Total fixed telco revenue forecast (both communication and Internet & data), EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 23: Total mobile telco revenue forecast (both communication and Internet & data), EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 24: Total telco revenues forecast (fixed and mobile, communication and noncommunication), EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 25: Telco fixed voice, mobile voice and messaging revenues forecast, USA, 2012-2020
Figure 26: Share of messaging revenue, USA, 2012 and 2020
Figure 27: SMS and other messaging services revenues forecast, USA, 2012-2020
Figure 28: Share of SMS and other messaging services revenues, USA, 2012 and 2020
Figure 29: Telco fixed voice, mobile voice and mobile messaging revenue forecast, EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 30: Share of messaging revenue, EU5, 2012 and 2020
Figure 31: SMS and other messaging services revenues forecast, EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 32: Share of SMS and other messaging services revenues, EU5, 2012 and 20
Figure 33: OTT communication revenue forecast by segment, USA, 2012-2020
Figure 34: Share of OTT communication revenue by segment, USA, 2012 and 2020
Figure 35: Comparison of telco and OTT communication revenues, USA, 2012-2020
Figure 36: OTT communication revenue forecast by segment, EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 37: Share of OTT communication revenue by segment, EU5, 2012 and 2020
Figure 38: Comparison of telco and OTT communication revenues, EU5, 2012-2020
Figure 39: The new look of Facebook messages
Figure 40: Bobsled, by T-Mobile, allows voice calls on Facebook chat
Figure 41: Video-calling option within Facebook
Figure 42: FaceTime from Apple
Figure 43: Media Centre Cloud service by Deutsche Telekom
Figure 44: The TU Me app by Telefonica
Figure 45: Key features of the Bobsled app by T-Mobile USA
Figure 46: International Favourites, by O2 UK
Figure 47: The Skype-on-Three offer which incurs no data charges
Figure 48: Skype on KDDI
Figure 49: WhatsApp offering from Three Hong Kong
Figure 50: The ‘joyn' service, led by the GSMA
Figure 51: OEM ecosystem for joyn
Figure 52: Orange France mobile plans offer unlimited calls and SMS in their cheapest plans
Figure 53: BT offers unlimited calls (national) and Internet
Figure 54: Quadruple bundle from Orange, further commoditising voice and messaging
Figure 55: Penetration of bundled services in European households
Figure 56: A comparison of Sprint, AT&T and Verizon's smartphone data plan, by Sprint
Figure 57: Video call tariffs
Figure 58: A FaceTime video communication between an iPhone user and an iPad user
Figure 59: A Skype video communication using the Skype application
Figure 60: An example of WebRTC integration for video calls on Google Chrome
Figure 61: A GTalk video chat (using the Flash plug-in)
Figure 62: A Windows Live Messenger window with an ad at the bottom
Figure 63: Falcon Pro for Twitter sold inn the Google Play app store at 0.79 EUR
Figure 64: WhatsApp Messenger price information before downloading the app
Figure 65: Facebook targeted advertising on the user's wall

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown

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