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World Telecoms and Technology Outlook 2nd Quarter Product Image

World Telecoms and Technology Outlook 2nd Quarter

  • Published: April 2013
  • Region: Global
  • 20 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

Rising political risks are combining with fading economic performance in key countries to dampen the global business and financial outlook. A sharp increase in tensions on the Korean peninsula has emerged as the greatest geo-political risk: a military conflict between the two Koreas, which inevitably would involve the US, would shred economic and investor confidence in the region and push key parts of the world economy back into recession. Although we expect Korean tensions to stop well short of war, they come at a time of mounting pressures on other fronts. Virtually no progress has been made between Western powers and Iran over its nuclear programme; China and Japan remain at odds over ownership of a small group of islands, and the civil war in Syria continues to pose a spill-over risk within the region. Tensions within the euro zone over bail-outs and fiscal austerity leave the region vulnerable to political miscalculation-Cyprus is the latest example-and the seemingly endless budget showdowns in the US between the two political parties threaten to hold back what otherwise appears to be an improving economic outlook.

These political tensions come at a time when key parts of READ MORE >

World Telecoms and Technology Outlook 2nd Quarter

World growth and inflation
Political pressures as well as economic woes threaten the global recovery
A second half pick-up in growth is now less likely
Conflict on the Korean peninsula could result in catastrophe
Economic policy feuds are undermining business and consumer confidence
Global GDP growth in 2013 will be no better than the year before
The Bank of Japan is the latest central bank to take unconventional measures
The euro zone continues to struggle economically and politically
US growth outlook is reasonably strong
China's economy continues to grow, but the recovery is fragile

World telecommunications outlook

World telecommunications outlook: Key forecasts

World telecommunications outlook: Infrastructure and networks
Capex will rise substantially, fuelling fibre and mobile network expansion
LTE networks will proliferate
Returns on infrastructure investments will remain uncertain
Cable and internet competitors will continue to spur disruption, increasingly in operators' backyards

World telecommunications outlook: Services and content
Mobile and broadband subscriptions to grow rapidly
Operators will increasingly position themselves as something more than telecommunications companies
Mobile banking will grow in popularity, especially in emerging markets

World telecommunications outlook: Connected devices
PC penetration will grow and usage will remain steady, despite threat from tablets and smartphones
The Apple-Samsung global smartphone duopoly will be challenged by local rivals in emerging markets
Operating systems will be an important battlefield in the war between telecoms operators and the over-the-tops

World telecommunications outlook: Policy and regulation
China will open the door to market forces, slowly
Consolidation likely for the US
Mexico to undergo radical reforms to drive foreign investment
European operators to partner on networks under the regulator's approving eye

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