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The Faultline Revisited: Disruption in Video Delivery 2013-2023

  • ID: 2628737
  • Report
  • June 2013
  • 63 Pages
  • Rethink Research
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This report is a prediction of disruptive technologies that will shape digital media and video delivery in the next 10 years.

The next generation of digital media could be determined by any number of potential changes in business or technology. Anticipating them is, by its very nature, something that is open to debate. In this report, we focus on six major issues that we reason will have the greatest effect on video infrastructure over the next 10 years.

This 63 page report argues that the following six areas will be the key drivers of change for the next ten years:

- TV will shift from free to air radio to over the internet streaming OTT (from wireless to wired);
- Cellular offload will make WiFi the leading wireless network (from fixed line to wireless);
- Some 75% of TV viewing will shift to tablets, savaging TV sales forever (from a non-smart shared device to a smart personal wireless device);
- Mass social viewing platforms will lead major motion picture releases (from a physical location shared experience to an online WiFi and cellular driven experience);
- TV Channel unbundling will see the death of 75% of TV channels (more content available OTT over WiFi and cellular driving this change);
- TV Everywhere will become the largest App on the planet (from fixed line to wireless delivery.

“Every business layer of video and content delivery is potentially threatened with oblivion”

The ‘faultline’ is so called because it locates the creaks, lurches and in some cases, entire collapses of the rich seams traditionally mined by media and technology companies. It states that during a period of technological change, the ownership of entire industries changes hands, as some companies try to support the status quo, whilst others embrace the change.

For the last ten years this faultline was about how music and video moved from being an analog delivery to a digital delivery. This change was at the heart of the ascent of Apple over previous consumer electronics giants such as Sony, Samsung, Toshiba and Panasonic. It contributed to the demise in importance of Microsoft and at the same time the rise of ARM architectures over Intel.

The “Faultline Revisited” report argues that the next change will be movements from wired to wireless delivery or in the case of broadcast TV, the other way around. What will typify pay TV video development over the next ten years is the move from largely fixed line delivery to almost exclusively wireless delivery, something that in some cases is already happening.

The digital media eco-system is therefore faced with a massive amount of disruption. So much so that every business layer of video and content delivery is potentially threatened with oblivion. The report, therefore, is vital reading for anyone in every business layer of video and content delivery that doesn’t want to be caught in the cross-fire and who wants to build a strategy to survive and thrive in the ensuing disruptive eco-system.

Who should read “Faultline Revisited – Disruption in Video Delivery from 2013 to 2023”?

This is essential research for content and rights’ owners in entertainment, publishing and music; Consumer Electronics device and component vendors; Pay TV operators, broadcasters, all types of network operators, telcos, cablecos, broadband carriers, satellite and IPTV operators, and equipment and software suppliers to these companies, including STB and encoder manufacturers, DRM specialists, handset makers, chip designers and sellers of advertising; apps and software developers; strategy formulators and buyers; consultants; financial analysts and any company with an interest in the future of content delivery.
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1. The Timeline of outcomes that Faultline proposes

2. Methodology and how to use Faultline Revisited

3. The Faultline Revisited Timeline in more detail

4. The Faultline A business concept for the

5. Century

6. Conclusion: It’s going to get mighty scary out there
- Who’s in the firing line
- 50% of the content workforce looking at the web for work
- The CE industry will go virtually bankrupt overnight
- WiFi: The biggest wireless network - gets even bigger
- From 100m broadband lines to 1 billion

7. The Faultline Revisited—Key Changes

8. Those issues in a bit more detail
- TV shifts from free to air to internet delivery OTT
- Cellular offload to make WiFi the leading wireless network
- 75% of TV viewing will shift to tablets, savaging TV sales
- Social viewing platforms lead major motion picture release
- Facebook represents a threat to Netflix 45
- TV channel unbundling means death to 75% of channels
- TV Everywhere becomes the biggest App on the planet

9. Economic Turmoil

10. Megadeals
- Vodafone profits crash, but the share price stays same

11. TV ARPU down, broadband ARPU up or steady

12. Other Changes the market will see

Faultline Revisited Timeline

2013 - US broadcast channels lose case against Aereo
2013 - First WiFi Homespots
2014 - 30% of all IP data goes to Tablets
2014 - 10 million Homespots
2014 - TV shipments fall under 200 million a year
2014 - One or more major studios change hands
2015 - Tablet shipments overtake PC sales
2015 - Netflix 4K channels launched
2015 - First generation attempts at channel unbundling
2015 - Cheap whole wall TVs launched
2015 - CE bankruptcies, drop TVs
2015 - Apple stock under $300 bn
2015 - 25% of Movies launch online in theatrical window
2016 - 120 million Homespots
2016 - TV sales fall under 180 million a year
2016 - Mass piracy from tablets targeted
2016 - Cellular valuations begin to plummet
2017 - First dual signal broadband introduced
2017 - 50% of Cinema chains bust
2017 - Homespot operator market caps surge
2017 - OTT overtakes broadcast TV
2017 - 120 million Wi-Fi enabled flat panel TVs ship
2017 - 15 Exabytes of data delivered monthly to Smartphones
2018 - Euro Broadcasters for sale or broken-up
2018 - US cable consolidation rules challenged
2018 - 50% of pay TV delivered with no set top
2018 - Smart TV saturation US and Europe
2019 - Cellular consolidation and mega mergers
2019 - All movies launch online and theatrical window together
2019 - 75% of all TV watched on tablets, PCs or phones
2019 - Pan European telcos empires through megamergers
2020 - Top end super tablets down to $250
2021 - Apple value under $200 bn
2021 - Half Broadcasters cease broadcasting
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