Australia Rooftop Solar - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

Australia rooftop solar market size in 2026 is estimated at 31.33 gigawatt, growing from 2025 value of 28.45 gigawatt with 2031 projections showing 50.78 gigawatt, growing at 10.14% CAGR over 2026-2031. This report is Segmented by Panel Technology (Mono-PERC, HJT/TOPCon, Polycrystalline, and Thin-Film), System Size (Up To 5 KW, 5 To 10 KW, 10 To 30 KW, 30 To 100 KW, and 100 KW To 1 MW), Ownership Model (Outright Purchase, Solar Lease/PPA, and Community and VPP), and End User (Residential and Commercial and Industrial). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Installed Capacity (GW).

Australia Rooftop Solar Market Trends and Insights

Declining PV & Battery Costs

Combined module and storage prices continue falling. The average home solar payback period dropped below five years in 2024, while battery packs approached AUD 10,000, encouraging paired installations. CSIRO’s perovskite research achieved 11% efficiency on printed cells, signalling future cost declines via roll-to-roll manufacturing. Price deflation coincides with rising retail tariffs, thereby accelerating the adoption of both products across households and businesses. With virtual power plant revenue stacking, batteries now generate grid services income that further shortens returns. Cost trends, therefore, underpin a self-reinforcing adoption loop in the Australian rooftop solar market.

SRES & State-Level Rebates Continuity

The federal Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme remains in force to 2030, underwriting certificate income that de-risks purchases. Victoria’s battery rebate and NSW’s Empowering Homes package add upfront discounts that sway system sizing decisions. These layered incentives lift installation volumes, stabilise installer pipelines, and steer buyers toward larger arrays that future-proof consumption. Consistent rebate rules across jurisdictions reduce stop-start cycles and sustain installer employment, anchoring growth in the Australian rooftop solar market.

Grid Export Limits & Congestion

High-penetration feeders experience voltage rise and thermal constraints that compel dynamic export caps. South Australian trials across 2,835 inverters verified software limits that safeguard stability while returning AUD 250 annually to a 10 kW system. AEMO earmarked AUD 16 billion for transmission upgrades to absorb renewable peaks. Until these lines are built, rooftop export ceilings limit revenue, prompting households to opt for batteries and curbing unconstrained growth in the Australian rooftop solar market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Rising Retail Tariffs Shortening Payback
• Virtual-Power-Plant (VPP) Program Uptake
• Import-Linked Supply-Chain Volatility

Segment Analysis

Mono-PERC cells delivered 69.35% of system shipments in 2025, maintaining a price-performance sweet spot. Yet, heterojunction and TOPCon lines are scaling swiftly, registering a 16.3% CAGR to 2031 and edging towards parity on a $/W installed basis. Lifespans above 30 years and temperature coefficients below 0.3% per °C drive commercial site preference for these higher-efficiency modules. Polycrystalline shares continue to contract due to lower efficiency, while thin-film technology positions itself in weight-constrained structures.

SunDrive’s copper-plated heterojunction cell has reached commercial pilot runs with Trina, opening a local high-efficiency supply. CSIRO’s printed flexible cell roadmap targets building-integrated photovoltaic cladding that could revolutionise supermarkets and warehouses. Maxeon’s 24.1% IBC module offering launched in Q3 2024 anchors the premium residential segment. Technology choices, therefore, revolve around space constraints, degradation rates, and embodied-carbon goals, steering differentiation within the Australian rooftop solar market.

Systems between 5 kW and 10 kW secured 44.20% of Australia's rooftop solar market share in 2025, reflecting typical suburban roof space and electricity use. Average installs hit 9.9 kW that year as households future-proofed for electric vehicles. Simultaneously, the 30 to 100 kW commercial class is forecast to register the fastest growth, with a 13.9% CAGR, fueling capacity uplift among warehouses, schools, and shopping centers. The up to 5 kW tier is being phased out as small-scale tariffs decline, while the 10 to 30 kW tier suits boutique commercial premises and larger homes.

Large roofs above 100 kW, though a smaller count, yield outsized megawatt additions. Smart inverters in this bracket participate in frequency markets, monetising otherwise curtailed energy. Businesses cluster charging stations under solar canopies, coupling daytime photovoltaic output with fleet electrification strategies. Module efficiencies near 24% reduce the surface area for a given wattage, allowing tighter footprints to accommodate higher ratings and enhancing the mid-range class's appeal. Thus, size dynamics continue to diversify as the Australian rooftop solar market matures.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Panel Technology
  • Mono-PERC
  • HJT/TOPCon
  • Polycrystalline
  • Thin-film (CdTe/Perovskite)
• By System Size
  • Up to 5 kW
  • 5 to 10 kW
  • 10 to 30 kW
  • 30 to 100 kW
  • 100 to 1 MW
• By Ownership Model
  • Outright Purchase
  • Solar Lease/PPA
  • Community and Aggregated VPP
• By End User
  • Residential
  • Commercial and Industrial

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Trina Solar
• JinkoSolar
• LONGi Green Energy
• Maxeon Solar Technologies
• Canadian Solar
• Risen Energy
• Tindo Solar
• Infinite Energy
• Energy Matters
• GEM Energy
• Adam Solar
• Soltek Energy
• RACV Solar
• Origin Energy Solar
• NRG Solar

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support