North America Online Grocery Delivery - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

North america online grocery delivery market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 195.7 billion, growing from 2025 value of USD 180.2 billion with 2031 projections showing USD 295.34 billion, growing at 8.60% CAGR over 2026-2031. This report is Segmented by Product Type (Retail Delivery, Quick Commerce and More), Delivery Speed (Standard, Same-Day and More), Platform Type (Mobile App, Web Portal and More), Customer Type (Household, Corporate), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

North America Online Grocery Delivery Market Trends and Insights

Subscription Services’ Recurring-Revenue Flywheel

Paid memberships such as Walmart+ convert one-off shoppers into predictable, high-frequency customers. Bundled perks - free delivery, fuel discounts, streaming content - reduce churn and lift average order frequency, letting retailers subsidize shipping without eroding margin. Amazon, Safeway and regional grocers alike exploit first-party data from subscriptions to personalize offers and optimize inventory, deepening competitive moats around scale.

SNAP Online Expansion & EBT Digitization

Forty-one million SNAP participants now enjoy digital purchase capability, after the USDA expanded the program to every state in 2024. Kroger, DoorDash and Shipt quickly integrated EBT check-out, unlocking incremental demand from food-insecure households and cutting fraud through chip-enabled cards. California’s statewide chip-and-tap rollout beginning January 2025 accelerates the shift, widening the addressable base for the North America online grocery delivery market.

Last-Mile Cost Inflation Outpacing Basket Value

Urban minimum-wage ordinances for gig workers lift delivery costs faster than basket values grow. Platforms must choose between absorbing losses or raising fees, pressuring unit economics in the North America online grocery delivery market. Regulatory scrutiny of fee structures, such as the CFPB’s probe into Walmart, compounds compliance expense.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Same-Day Fulfilment Infrastructure Roll-Out
• AI-Powered Demand Forecasting for Perishables
• Driver & Warehouse Labor Shortages

Segment Analysis

Retail delivery held 62.38% of the North America online grocery delivery market share in 2025. Consumers favour full-basket shopping that mirrors in-store experiences, driving sustained volume through omnichannel retailers. Quick commerce, though only a minority today, is the fastest-growing slice at a 20.3% CAGR thanks to urban demand for immediacy. Meal-kit providers face margin pressure as HelloFresh anticipates double-digit revenue decline, while supermarkets roll out in-house kits to win back share.

Quick commerce startups like Gopuff launch convenience hubs across major metros, but unit profitability hinges on dense order pools and premium fees. Specialty ethnic and wellness categories gain traction as demographic diversity rises. Pharmacy integration boosts basket size, reinforcing the revenue potential embedded within the North America online grocery delivery market.

Same-day options commanded 45.35% of the North America online grocery delivery market size in 2025 and continue to expand as retailers retrofit stores into micro-fulfilment nodes. Instant services promise sub-2-hour turnaround and are projected to grow at 25.9% CAGR. Yet sustainability of ultra-rapid delivery remains in question outside dense cores, where order density fails to absorb high fixed costs.

Next-day delivery survives for bulk pantry staples and value-oriented customers. Platforms now segment service levels, charging premiums for speed while keeping standard tiers price-competitive, allowing refined revenue management across the North America online grocery delivery market.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Product Type
  • Retail Delivery
  • Quick Commerce (?30-min)
  • Meal-kit Delivery
  • Specialty and Ethnic Grocery
  • Pharmacy and Health Items
• By Delivery Speed
  • Standard (next-day +)
  • Same-day
  • Instant (< 2 hours)
• By Platform Type
  • Mobile App
  • Web Portal
  • Voice / Smart-device
• By Customer Type
  • Household Consumers
  • Corporate / Institutional
• By Country
  • United States
  • Canada
  • Mexico

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Walmart Inc.
• Amazon.com Inc. (Amazon Fresh)
• Instacart
• Albertsons Companies Inc.
• Ahold Delhaize USA (Peapod)
• The Kroger Co.
• FreshDirect LLC
• Shipt LLC (Target)
• Thrive Market Inc.
• DoorDash Inc. (DashMart)
• Gopuff LLC
• Misfits Market Inc.
• Boxed.com Inc.
• Imperfect Foods Inc.
• Costco Wholesale Corp. (Costco Grocery)
• H-E-B, LP (Favor Delivery)
• Loblaw Companies Ltd. (PC Express)
• Metro Inc. (Metro Online)
• Publix Super Markets Inc.
• 7-Eleven, Inc. (7NOW)

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support