United States Commercial Real Estate - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The united states commercial real estate market size is expected to increase from USD 1.7 trillion in 2025 to USD 1.75 trillion in 2026 and reach USD 2.02 trillion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 2.91% over 2026-2031. This report is Segmented by Business Model (Sales, Rental), by Property Type (Offices, Retail, Logistics, Others), by End-User (Individuals/Households, Corporates & SMEs, Others), and by State (Texas, California, Florida, New York, Illinois, Rest of US). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

United States Commercial Real Estate Market Trends and Insights

Strong Demand for Industrial and Logistics Space Driven by E-Commerce and Supply-Chain Needs

E-commerce exceeded 16.3% of United States retail sales in 2025, pushing tenants to secure 250 million square feet of new warehouse capacity. Prologis posted 7.2% same-store rent growth and maintained a 50 million square-foot development pipeline in last-mile markets . Nearshoring added 475,000 residents to Texas in 2025, fueling record industrial absorption in Dallas-Fort Worth. Cold-storage rents ran 30-40% higher than conventional warehouses, yet supply remained scarce due to complex build-outs. Industrial REITs delivered a 17% total return in 2025, the second-best performing subsector after health-care assets.

Increased Investor Interest in Multifamily and Mixed-Use Properties Expanding Capital Markets Activity

Multifamily transaction volume jumped 28% year over year to USD 185 billion in 2025. Sunbelt rent growth of 5-7% attracted pension funds seeking inflation-protected yields. Mixed-use projects earned premium valuations as cities promoted transit-oriented developments via tax-increment financing. Brokerages saw a 35% rise in equity-placement mandates for multifamily refinancings at stabilized 5.0-5.5% cap rates. Institutional buyers acquired 18% of single-family homes in targeted metros, integrating them with multifamily portfolios for financing scale.

Rising Interest Rates and Higher Borrowing Costs Slowing Deal Volumes

Commercial-mortgage coupons averaged 6.4% in 2025, still 300 basis points above 2019, depressing leveraged returns. Deal flow stayed 35% below prior peaks as bid-ask spreads widened to 20% on office trades. Floating-rate debt covering 40% of outstanding balances faced repricing shocks that triggered distressed sales. Regional banks curtailed lending after 2023’s turmoil, creating a USD 150 billion annual funding gap partly filled by CMBS and debt funds. The Fed’s guidance for only 50 basis points of easing through 2026 suggests borrowing costs will remain a drag on the United States commercial real estate market.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Recovery in Office and Retail Leasing Boosting Demand for Brokerage and Leasing Services
• Adoption of PropTech and data analytics enhancing market transparency and transaction efficiency
• Office Sector Headwinds from Hybrid Work Reducing Occupancy and Valuations

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

The rental segment captured 76.2% of 2025 revenue, underlining institutional appetite for predictable cash flows and CPI-linked escalators. Core-plus strategies delivered 4.2% same-store NOI growth, comfortably above the overall United States commercial real estate market CAGR, because most new industrial leases in 2025 embedded 3-4% annual bumps. Rental ownership also skirts mark-to-market risk, letting investors ride out valuation swings while collecting distributions.

Sales activity, forecast to grow at a 3.19% CAGR through 2031, revolves around distressed office conversions, subdivision land, and single-tenant deals priced 150 basis points over replacement-cost cap rates. Transaction velocity should accelerate once financing costs ease, potentially unleashing USD 200 billion of pent-up deals. Still, rental’s dominance in the United States commercial real estate market looks durable as insurers and pensions expand allocations to net-lease assets for liability matching.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Business Model
  • Sales
  • Rental

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• CBRE
• JLL
• Cushman & Wakefield
• Newmark
• Colliers
• Marcus & Millichap
• SVN International
• Transwestern
• Brookfield Properties
• Prologis
• Simon Property Group
• RE/MAX Commercial
• Century 21 Commercial
• Keller Williams Commercial
• Coldwell Banker Commercial
• Franklin Street
• Mohr Partners
• Crexi
• HqO
• VTS

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support