A key feature of each month’s report is an analysis of the latest published industrial production figures and leading indicators for all major economies. Typically a preliminary estimate of the actual change in global output two periods earlier is provided. In addition, quarterly forecasts for each country in the index are shown for 12-18 months ahead. A global aggregate monthly forecast is projected several years into the future to highlight the evolution of the business cycle going forward.
Global IP Watch has been designed to provide producers and consumers of industrial raw materials with an up-to-date assessment of industrial activity around the world. By focusing on the latest data, readers are alerted immediately to changes in sentiment and rates of growth, pinpointing turning points in the industrial business cycle.
While medium to longer-term forecasts are modelled on developments observed in earlier cycles, it is recognised that each cycle has its own characteristics. By closely monitoring the key factors influencing growth, it is possible to modify forecasts in a timely manner providing the earliest possible warning of changes in the rate of global growth.