Emerging Markets Smart Grid: Outlook 2018 is the seventh edition of its annual look at smart grid infrastructure opportunities in the developing world. Since the first edition, smart grid plans, regulations, and deployments have progressed from nascent pilots to large-scale rollouts. For this reason, for the first year, this study focuses on investment over a five-year period rather than a ten-year period. Over the next decade, almost all emerging market countries will see significant smart grid investment. But now there are extensive near-term opportunities to take note of and quantify over the next five years. This study highlights the 50 emerging market countries that will see the most smart grid investment in the near term.
The focus on emerging markets is increasingly relevant for parallel reasons. After some delays, most major deployments are already awarded and being deployed in developed countries in North America, Western Europe, and East Asia. These markets represent over 75% of the current installed base of smart meters. As these projects wrap up, vendors will need to focus on new opportunities. These opportunities are now opening up across emerging market countries, with notable tenders and plans for full rollouts across all emerging market regions. In short, smart grid infrastructure in emerging markets will quickly transition from a potential future opportunity to concrete near-term awards.
Smart grid projects in emerging markets are not without risk. Several previously forecast rollouts have failed to materialize, and even recent tenders have been rescinded. But market conditions have improved increasingly every year - at the start of 2018 there are more tenders and more smart meter regulatory targets than in any previous year. Meanwhile, nontechnical loss rates remain high, GDP and electricity consumption rates continue to grow, and for the first time, perendpoint AMI prices have begun to steadily decline. As a result, the conditions are now in place for these 50 countries to invest over $67 billion in smart grid infrastructure over the next five years.
Key questions answered in this study:
- Which 50 emerging market countries will deploy the most AMI meters over the next five years?
- Which tenders are expected for 2018 and which tenders are stalling?
- Which countries were most active in developing smart grid-related policies and which countries took a step back?
- What is the forecast market for AMI, distribution automation, wide area measurement, home energy management, IT and battery storage in each emerging market region?
- How do emerging markets compare with developed countries in forecast deployments?
1. What’s new in 2018
2. Emerging markets smart grid indicators
3. Emerging markets smart grid market forecast
4. Country dashboards
5.2 Smart grid overview
5.3 Global smart grid activity
5.4 List of companies and acronyms
List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables
Figure 1.1: Changes to the countries included in this Outlook study
Figure 1.2: Annual AMI deployments across 50 emerging market countries
Figure 1.3: Annual AMI deployments by country
Figure 1.4: Leading emerging market smart grid markets
Table 1.1: Countries with significant existing AMI deployments
Table 1.2: Countries with near-term AMI tenders and/or plans
Table 1.3: Countries with medium-term AMI plans
Figure 1.5: Cumulative AMI deployments (2018 - 2022)
Figure 1.6: 2018 AMI annual forecast
Figure 1.7: Notable AMI deployments and announcements in 2017
Figure 1.8: Largest utilities in emerging market countries
Table 1.4: Notable smart meter targets in emerging markets
Figure 1.9: Emerging markets smart meter potential
Figure 1.10: Average global AMI price per endpoint
Figure 1.11: All-in per-endpoint costs per region
Figure 2.1: Smart grid regulatory country index
Figure 2.2: Smart grid potential benefit country index
Figure 2.3: Emerging markets smart meter potential
Figure 2.4: T&D losses by % and dollars lost
Figure 2.5: Electricity consumption per capita
Figure 2.6: Average residential electricity tariff
Figure 2.7: Average GDP growth (2018 - 2022)
Figure 2.8: Typical number of outages per month (SAIFI)
Table 2.9: Typical duration of outages, in hours (SAIDI)
Figure 3.1: Emerging markets smart grid forecast by region
Table 3.1: Emerging markets smart grid forecast data by region
Figure 3.2: Emerging markets smart grid forecast by segment
Table 3.2: Emerging markets smart grid forecast data by segment
Figure 3.3: Emerging markets AMI forecast by region (cumulative)
Table 3.3: Emerging markets cumulative AMI forecast data by region
Figure 3.4: Emerging markets AMI forecast by region (annual)
Table 3.4: Emerging markets annual AMI forecast data by region
Figure 3.5: Regional residential electricity meter market size in 2017
Figure 3.6: Regional residential electricity meter market size in 2022
Figure 3.7: Global AMI forecast comparison
Figure 3.8: Global smart grid forecast comparison
Figure 4.1: Countries with in-depth smart grid dashboards
Figure 5.1: Smart grid value chain
Figure 5.2: Global smart grid activity
Figure 5.3: Cumulative smart grid investment by region
Figure 5.4: Annual smart grid and AMI investment by region
Table 5.1: Global smart grid drivers and activity
In addition to the figures and tables shown above, each country summary includes the following:
- Table: Industry structure;
- Table: Regulatory framework;
- Chart: Regional smart meter potential;
- Chart: Regional electricity consumption per capita (kWh);
- Chart: Regional electricity prices (cents per kWh);
- Chart: Regional T&D losses (%).
Therefore, this study includes over 100 additional unique charts and tables in addition to those cited above.