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Strategic Analysis of Indonesia Commercial Vehicle Industry, Forecast to 2025

  • Report

  • 130 Pages
  • January 2018
  • Region: Indonesia
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 4458826

Annual Demand for Pickups, Light-medium-heavy Trucks, and Buses to Touch 742,000 Units by 2025

The commercial vehicle market in Indonesia has been shrinking from 2014 to 2016, with the market experiencing its lowest decline in 2016. Consequently, the production has also witnessed a decline over the years. Small Commercial Vehicles (SCVs) account for the largest segment in both sales and production. Japanese brands have the widest commercial vehicle distribution and service network in Indonesia. During the forecast period, the Indonesian commercial vehicle market is expected to witness a positive growth, despite challenges in terms of increased down payment rate, restriction on subsidized fuel, increasing price of raw materials, and global economic crisis. In all, 80% of Indonesia’s vehicle sales are financed, but in 2012, Indonesian Central Bank (ICB) raised the minimum down payment from 10% to 25% for CVs and 30% for passenger vehicles. This is likely to have a serious negative impact on overall vehicle sales in the country throughout the forecast period. However, OEMs can overcome these challenges and restraints due to the various trends supporting the growth of the commercial vehicle market. This includes stable politics and positive economic growth, Indonesia emerging as a manufacturing hub, positive implications of AFTA and AEC, government FDI promotions, and growth of alternative fuel commercial vehicles. Indonesia has been on the path of political stability and reformist democracy, contributing to the country’s significant GDP growth for over the last 4 years. The government projects a continued steady growth in the short to medium term.

Research Scope

This study aims to research, analyze, and forecast the commercial vehicles market in Indonesia during 2012-2025. The scope of the study is

  • To provide a strategic overview of the commercial vehicles market, including key technology trends, market trends, and market drivers and restraints
  • To provide market size for pickups, LCVs (SCVs, LTs), and MCVs, HCVs, and bus (LBs, MHBs) segments by OEM and sales breakdown for 2012–2025
  • To provide forecasts for current and future roadmaps for commercial vehicles by segments for 2012–2025
  • To provide competitor analysis, including competitive factors, competitor market shares, and product portfolio analysis and capabilities
  • To provide a strategic analysis of the commercial vehicles market from an OEM’s perspective

Key Issues Addressed

  • How is the business and economic environment as a whole impacting the sales of commercial vehicles?
  • How are commercial vehicles classified and how is the market structured?
  • Who are the market leaders and what are their market shares?
  • What are the technology trends?
  • Is there potential for growth within the market?

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
  • Executive Summary-Market Engineering Measurements
  • Executive Summary-Total Market Unit Shipment Snapshot
  • Indonesian CVs Market-Lifecycle Analysis
  • Market and Technology Trends
  • Total CVs Market-Sales Scenario Analysis

2. Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions this Study will Answer
  • Research Background
  • Research Methodology
  • Key OEM/Participant Groups Compared in this Study

3. Definitions and Segmentation
  • Vehicle Definitions
  • Vehicle Segmentation

4. CVs Market Overview
  • CVs Market-Unit Sales Breakdown by Segments
  • CVs Market-Sales Breakdown by Brands
  • CVs Market-Sales Breakdown by Region
  • CVs Market-Production Breakdown by Segments
  • CVs Market-Production Breakdown by Brands
  • Powertrain Mix by Fuel Type
  • CVs Age Analysis
  • CVs Age Analysis-New Versus Used CVs
  • CVs Fleet Type and Size
  • The Indonesian CVs Industry-Outlook of Value Chain by 2023
  • Applications of CVs by Fleet Type

5. Market Network and Dealership
  • CVs Market-Dealership Analysis
  • CVs Market-Dealership Analysis by Region
  • CVs Market-Major Dealers

6. Regulatory Environment
  • Emission Norms and Legislations
  • Safety and Fuel Efficiency Regulations

7. Key Industry Sectors Outlook-Total CVs Market
  • Key Industries Impacting Indonesia’s CVs Market
  • Top Industries Impacting Indonesia’s CVs Market
  • Key Industry #1-Agriculture Industry: Development and Impact
  • Agriculture Industry-Future Growth
  • Key Industry #2-Manufacturing Industry: Development and Impact
  • Manufacturing Industry-Future Growth
  • Key Industry #3-Construction Industry: Development and Impact
  • Construction Industry-Future Growth

8. External Challenges-Drivers and Restraints: Total CVs Market
  • Market Drivers
  • Market Drivers Explained
  • Market Restraints
  • Market Restraints Explained

9. Forecasts and Trends-Total CVs Market
  • Market Engineering Measurements
  • Total CVs Market-Sales Scenario Analysis
  • Total CVs Market-Optimistic Scenario Analysis
  • Total CVs Market-Scenario Analysis
  • Total CVs Market-Conservative Scenario Analysis
  • Total Market Unit Shipment Snapshot

10. Market Share and Competitive Analysis-Total CVs Market
  • Competitive Environment-CVs Market
  • CVs Market-Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
  • Pickup Segment-Competitive Environment
  • Pickup Segment-Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
  • Pickup Segment-Key Best-selling Models
  • SCV Segment-Competitive Environment
  • SCV Segment-Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
  • SCV Segment-Key Best-selling Models
  • LT Segment-Competitive Environment
  • LT Segment-Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
  • LT Segment-Key Best-selling Models
  • MCV Segment-Competitive Environment
  • MCV Segment-Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
  • MCV Segment-Key Best-selling Models
  • HCV Segment-Competitive Environment
  • HCV Segment-Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
  • HCV Segment-Key Best Selling Models
  • LB Segment-Competitive Environment
  • LB Segment-Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
  • LB Segment-Key Best Selling Models
  • MHB Segment-Competitive Environment
  • MHB Segment-Manufacturer Market Share Analysis
  • MHB Segment-Key Best-selling Models

11. CV Industry and OEM Profile
  • Top Market Participants
  • Manufacturing Locations
  • Local Supply Base
  • CVs Manufacturers-Mitsubishi
  • CVs Manufacturers-Daihatsu Motors
  • CVs Manufacturers-Suzuki Motors
  • CVs Manufacturers-Hino Motors
  • Recent Activities

12. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
  • Growth Opportunity 1-Economic Growth
  • Growth Opportunity 2-Indonesia Emerging as Large Manufacturing Base
  • Growth Opportunity 3-Tax Exemptions
  • Growth Opportunity 4-Alternative Fuel Vehicles
  • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

13. Conclusions and Future Outlook
  • Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
  • Strategic Recommendations for Local OEMs
  • Strategic Recommendations for Global OEMs
  • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

14. Appendix
  • Table of Acronyms Used
  • List of Exhibits

Companies Mentioned

A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes:

  • Daihatsu Motors
  • Hino Motors
  • Isuzu
  • Mitsubishi
  • Suzuki Motors
  • Yoyota