NB-IoT: Market Dynamics

  • ID: 4479891
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 122 Pages
  • ON World Inc
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Synopsis:

Narrowband Internet of Things (NB-IoT) has reached critical mass with announced deployment plans growing exponentially. Last year, the NB-IoT market was driven by a handful of operators, primarily in Asia and Europe. Today, there are dozens of network operators with NB-IoT networks or plans including in the U.S. where Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile are fast tracking their NB-IoT development. By the end of 2018, most of the U.S., Europe and Asia Pacific will be covered by at least one NB-IoT network.

Despite the early lead by unlicensed Low Power Wide Area (LPWA) networking technologies such as LoRa® and Sigfox, the NB-IoT ecosystem is rapidly over taking them. Dual mode options have driven much of the initial NB-IoT market where both LTE-M-- a higher bandwidth option that supports voice and mobility-- and NB-IoT protocols are integrated into the same chipset. Lower chip costs, better performance and a roadmap that includes over-the air-updates, voice and mobility will ensure that NB-IoT overtakes LTE-M in the near term and Sigfox and LoRa within the next five years.

Our interviews and reviews of hundreds of LPWA network operator announcements found that NB-IoT makes up about 40% of the these. The pace of activity has accelerated over the past year and based on the high rate of news and announcement over the past six months, the NB-IoT activity level will increase by 18X over the past two years.

Smart city applications such as metering, streetlight monitoring, waste management and parking solutions make up 80% of the announced NB-IoT applications to date. However, the number of NB-IoT applications is growing rapidly including solutions for traffic and waste management, healthcare, smart buildings, retail and wearables such as health monitors and smartwatches that will increasingly compete with short range wireless technologies such as Bluetooth and Zigbee.

Our analysis of nearly 100 LPWA network operators found that 1 in 4 are planning/developing NB-IoT networks today including many top tier mobile operators. Over half of the NB-IoT network operators today are from the Asia Pacific region. A few examples of NB-IoT network operators with varying stages of network rollouts include China Telecom, China Unicom, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom and its subsidiary T-Mobile, KDDI, NTT Docomo, Singtel, SoftBank, Sprint, Telecom Italy, Telefónica, Telia, Telkomsel, Verizon and Vodafone.

By 2025, there will be 1.3 billion LPWA connections worldwide and NB-IoT will make up over half by this time up from <5% in 2017.

In this report we analyze the market opportunity, competitive threats and status of NB-IoT network rollouts and commercial deployments, based on 250 interviews by phone and online surveys as well as an exhaustive review of the NB-IoT value system. It includes market size forecasts (2016-2022) for connected devices, annual unit shipments and breakdowns by market, application, technology, geography and equipment/services; the results from several surveys; an in-depth technology evaluation that compares NB-IoT to LoRaWAN™ and other LPWA technologies; and an in-depth analysis of the growing NB-IoT ecosystem.

*The LoRa® Mark is a trademark of Semtech Corporation or its subsidiaries.
*LoRa Alliance™ and LoRaWAN™ are marks used under license from the LoRa Alliance.

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1. Executive Summary

2. Report Scope & Methodology

3. The Ecosystem

  • The LPWA Value Proposition
  • NB-IoT Network Rollouts Accelerating
  • LPWA Network Operator Trends
  • NB-IoT Network Analysis by Region
  • Asia Pacific
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Latin America, Middle East and Rest of the World
  • The NB-IoT Value System
  • The LPWA Market Opportunity

4. The Smart City IoT Market Opportunity

  • Market Segmentation
  • NB-IoT Markets & Applications
  • Current Deployments & Pilots
  • Utilities/Energy
  • Smart Metering
  • Distributed Energy Resources
  • Smart Water Networks
  • Smart Cities
  • Streetlight Monitoring
  • Traffic Management
  • Parking Management
  • Waste Management
  • Geotechnical Sensing
  • Environmental Monitoring
  • Industrial, Agriculture & Logistics
  • Smart Tags & Asset Tracking
  • Smart Buildings
  • Enterprise Services
  • Smart Buttons
  • Consumer IoT
  • Wearables
  • Bike Tracking

5. Survey Results
Respondent Overview

6. Wireless Sensor Networks

  • Wireless Sensor Networks
  • Most Important Features
  • Satisfaction with Current WSN Systems
  • Future WSN Applications
  • Adoption Inhibitors
  • Innovation Areas
  • Strategic Investments
  • IoT Platforms Used

7. Low Power WANs

  • LPWA Awareness
  • LPWA Applications
  • Product Development
  • LPWA Channels
  • Market Impact
  • LPWA Disruption
  • Future Projections
  • Surveyed Organizations

8. Technology Dynamics
Summary

9. Cellular Based LPWA Technologies

  • 3GPP
  • LTE-M1
  • NB-IoT

10. Non-Cellular LPWA Technologies

  • Sigfox
  • LoRa Alliance
  • Weightless SIG
  • ETSI’s Low Throughput Networks (LTN)
  • IEEE 802.15.4k (Low Energy Critical Infrastructure Networks)

11. Other LPWA Technologies

  • RPMA (Ingenu)
  • Qowisio
  • Link Labs
  • NB-Fi (WAVIoT)
  • Telematics Wireless
  • vMonitor (Rockwell)

12. Related Standards Initiatives

  • Wi-SUN Alliance
  • JupiterMesh
  • IEEE 802.11ah (HaLow)
  • TALQ Association

13. LPWA Network Tests

  • Network Range
  • Network Test 1: Near Real-time Parking Availability
  • Network Test 2: City Irrigation Monitoring
  • Network Test 3: City Asset Tracking

14. Global Total Market Size Forecasts

  • Global Connected WSN/LPWA Devices
  • Global Connected LPWA Devices by Market
  • Global Connected LPWA Devices, NB-IoT & Others
  • Global Connected NB-IoT Devices, Moderate & Aggressive
  • Global Connected NB-IoT Devices by Market
  • Global Total NB-IoT Revenues by Market
  • Global Total NB-IoT Revenues by Equipment & Services
  • Global Total NB-IoT Units by Application
  • Global Total NB-IoT Units by Geography
  • Global Total LPWA Units by Technology

15. Target Markets

16. Utilities

  • Summary
  • Value System
  • Market Size Forecasts
  • LPWA Connections
  • Connected NB-IoT Devices
  • Connected Devices by Market
  • Revenues by Market
  • Revenues for Equipment & Services
  • Units by Geography
  • Units by Technology

17. Smart Cities

  • Summary
  • Value System
  • Market Size Forecasts
  • LPWA Connections
  • Connected NB-IoT Devices
  • Connected Devices by Market
  • Revenues by Market
  • Revenues for Equipment & Services
  • Units by Application
  • Units by Geography
  • Units by Technology

18. Industrial, Agriculture & Logistics

  • Summary
  • Value System
  • Market Size Forecasts
  • LPWA Connections
  • Connected NB-IoT Devices
  • Connected Devices by Market
  • Revenues by Market
  • Revenues for Equipment & Services
  • Units by Application
  • Units by Geography
  • Units by Technology

19. Smart Buildings

  • Summary
  • Value System
  • Market Size Forecasts
  • LPWA Connections
  • Connected NB-IoT Devices
  • Revenues for Equipment & Services
  • Units by Application
  • Units by Geography
  • Units by Technology

20. Consumer & Others

  • Summary
  • Market Size Forecasts
  • LPWA Connections
  • Connected NB-IoT Devices
  • Connected LPWA Devices by Market
  • Revenues by Market
  • Revenues for Equipment & Services
  • Units by Application
  • Units by Geography
  • Units by Technology

21. Competitive Landscape

  • Components
  • Segmentation
  • Company Profiles
  • IoT Connectivity, Device Management & Network Infrastructure
  • Segmentation
  • Company Profiles
  • Devices, Systems & Platforms
  • Segmentation
  • Network Operators
  • Company Profiles

List of Figures
Figure 1: Global LPWA Connections by Technology & NB-IoT Penetration Rate (2017-2025)
Figure 2: NB-IoT Activity (2016 – 2018)
Figure 3: Network Operators by LPWA Technology
Figure 4: LPWA Network Operators by Geography
Figure 5: NB-IoT Network Operators by Geography
Figure 6: Total Potential WSN/IoT Connected Devices by Market
Figure 7: Total Addressable WSN/IoT Chipset Shipments, Long Range & Short Range
Figure 8: Most Common LPWA Target Markets
Figure 9: Most Common LPWA Applications
Figure 10: Global Smart Street Lights (2017-2025)
Figure 11: Parking Management, Smart Parking & Others (2017-2025)
Figure 12: Global Connected Bikes in Use (2017-2025)
Figure 13: Qualcomm’s LTE IoT Connected Wearable Devices Platform
Figure 14: Respondents by Industry Role
Figure 15: Respondents by Job Position
Figure 16: Respondents by Geographical Region
Figure 17: Respondents by Targeted Industry
Figure 18: Most Important WSN Features Rated
Figure 19: Satisfaction with WSN Systems
Figure 20: Planning Future/Additional WSN
Figure 21: Planned WSN Applications
Figure 22: WSN Inhibitors Rated
Figure 23: Most Important IoT Innovations
Figure 24: Most Important Strategic Investments
Figure 25: IoT Platforms Used
Figure 26: LPWA Adoption Status
Figure 27: Awareness of LPWA Technologies
Figure 28: Wireless Sensing/M2M Applications Requiring >1K Bytes/Day
Figure 29: LPWA Most Likely Types of Applications
Figure 30: LPWA Product Timeline
Figure 31: Most Likely LPWA Channels
Figure 32: LPWA’s Impact by Market
Figure 33: LPWA’s Disruption on Existing WSN Technologies
Figure 34: LPWA IoT Penetration Rate by 2025
Figure 35: Most Likely LPWA Technologies
Figure 36: Global Connected WSN Devices, LPWA & Others (2016-2022)
Figure 37: Global Connected LPWA Devices by Market (2016-2022)
Figure 38: Global Connected LPWA Devices by Market (2016-2022)
Figure 39: Global Connected NB-IoT Devices, Moderate & Aggressive (2016-2022)
Figure 40: Global Connected NB-IoT Devices by Market (2016-2022)
Figure 41: Global NB-IoT Revenues by Market (2016-2022)
Figure 42: Global NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services (2016-2022)
Figure 43: Global NB-IoT Units by Application (2016-2022)
Figure 44: Global NB-IoT Units by Geography (2016-2022)
Figure 45: Global NB-IoT LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others (2016-2022)
Figure 46: Global Connected Utility WSN Devices, LPWA & Others (2016-2022)
Figure 47: The Utility IoT/LPWA Value System
Figure 48: Global Utility LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Figure 49: Global Connected Utility NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Agg (2016-2022)
Figure 50: Global Connected Utility NB-IoT Devices by Market (2016-2022)
Figure 51: Global Utility NB-IoT Revenues Market (2016-2022)
Figure 52: Global Utility NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services (2016-2022)
Figure 53: Global Utility NB-IoT Device Units by Geography (2016-2022)
Figure 54: Global Utility LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others (2016-2022)
Figure 55: Global Connected Smart City WSN Devices, LPWA & Others (2016-2022)
Figure 56: The Smart City IoT/LPWA Value System
Figure 57: Global Smart City LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Figure 58: Global Connected Smart City NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Agg (2016-2022)
Figure 59: Global Connected Smart City NB-IoT Devices by Market (2016-2022)
Figure 60: Global Smart City NB-IoT Revenues Market (2016-2022)
Figure 61: Global Smart City NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services (2016-2022)
Figure 62: Global Smart City NB-IoT Device Units by Application (2016-2022)
Figure 63: Global Smart City NB-IoT Device Units by Geography (2016-2022)
Figure 64: Global Smart City LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others (2016-2022)
Figure 65: Global Connected Ind/Ag/Log WSN Devices, LPWA & Others (2016-2022)
Figure 66: The Industrial IoT/LPWA Value System
Figure 67: Global Ind/Ag/Log LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Figure 68: Global Connected Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Agg (2016-2022)
Figure 69: Global Connected Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Devices by Market (2016-2022)
Figure 70: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Revenues Market (2016-2022)
Figure 71: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services (2016-2022)
Figure 72: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Device Units by Application (2016-2022)
Figure 73: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Device Units by Geography (2016-2022)
Figure 74: Global Ind/Ag/Log LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others (2016-2022)
Figure 75: Global Connected Building WSN Devices, LPWA & Others (2016-2022)
Figure 76: The Smart Building IoT/LPWA Value System
Figure 77: Global Building LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Figure 78: Global Connected Building NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Agg (2016-2022)
Figure 79: Global Building NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services (2016-2022)
Figure 80: Global Building NB-IoT Device Units by Application (2016-2022)
Figure 81: Global Building NB-IoT Device Units by Geography (2016-2022)
Figure 82: Global Building LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others (2016-2022)
Figure 83: Global Connected Consumer/Other WSN Devices (2016-2022)
Figure 84: Global Consumer/Other LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Figure 85: Global Connected Consumer/Other NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Agg (2016-2022)
Figure 86: Global Connected Consumer/Other NB-IoT Devices by Market (2016-2022)
Figure 87: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Revenues Market (2016-2022)
Figure 88: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services (2016-2022)
Figure 89: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Device Units by Application (2016-2022)
Figure 90: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Device Units by Geography (2016-2022)
Figure 91: Global Consumer/Other LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT & Others (2016-2022)

List of Tables
Table 1: Asia Pacific NB-IoT/LTE-M Network Operators by Technology & Status
Table 2: Europe NB-IoT/LTE-M Network Operators by Technology & Status
Table 3: North America NB-IoT/LTE-M Network Operators by Technology & Status
Table 4: The NB-IoT Value System
Table 5: NB-IoT Market Segments & Adoption Drivers
Table 6: LPWA Technologies Summarized
Table 7: Global Connected WSN Devices, LPWA & Others (2016-2022)
Table 8: Global Connected LPWA Devices by Market (2016-2022)
Table 9: Global Connected LPWA Devices, NB-IoT & Others (2016-2022)
Table 10: Global Connected NB-IoT Devices, Moderate & Aggressive (2016-2022)
Table 11: Global Connected NB-IoT Devices by Market (2016-2022)
Table 12: Global NB-IoT LPWA Revenues by Market (2016-2022)
Table 13: Global NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services (2016-2022)
Table 14: Global NB-IoT Units by Application (2016-2022)
Table 15: Global NB-IoT Units by Geography (2016-2022)
Table 16: Global LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Table 17: Global Utilities LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Table 18: Global Connected Utility NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Agg (2016-2022)
Table 19: Global Connected Utility NB-IoT Devices by Market (2016-2022)
Table 20: Global Utility NB-IoT Revenues by Market (2016-2022)
Table 21: Global Utility NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services (2016-2022)
Table 22: Global Utility NB-IoT Device Units by Geography (2016-2022)
Table 23: Global Utility LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Table 24: Global Smart City LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Table 25: Global Connected Smart City NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Agg (2016-2022)
Table 26: Global Connected Smart City NB-IoT Devices by Market (2016-2022)
Table 27: Global Smart City NB-IoT Revenues by Market (2016-2022)
Table 28: Global Smart City NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services (2016-2022)
Table 29: Global Smart City NB-IoT Device Units by Application (2016-2022)
Table 30: Global Smart City NB-IoT Device Units by Geography (2016-2022)
Table 31: Global Smart City LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Table 32: Global Ind/Ag/Log LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Table 33: Global Connected Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Agg (2016-2022)
Table 34: Global Connected Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Devices by Market (2016-2022)
Table 35: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Revenues by Market (2016-2022)
Table 36: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services (2016-2022)
Table 37: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Device Units by Application (2016-2022)
Table 38: Global Ind/Ag/Log NB-IoT Device Units by Geography (2016-2022)
Table 39: Global Ind/Ag/Log LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Table 40: Global Building LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Table 41: Global Connected Building NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Agg (2016-2022)
Table 42: Global Building NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services (2016-2022)
Table 43: Global Building NB-IoT Device Units by Application (2016-2022)
Table 44: Global Building NB-IoT Device Units by Geography (2016-2022)
Table 45: Global Building LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Table 46: Global Consumer/Other LPWA Connections, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Table 47: Global Connected Consumer/Other NB-IoT Devices, Mod & Agg (2016-2022)
Table 48: Global Connected Consumer/Other NB-IoT Devices by Market (2016-2022)
Table 49: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Revenues by Market (2016-2022)
Table 50: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Revenues by Eqpmnt & Services (2016-2022)
Table 51: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Device Units by Application (2016-2022)
Table 52: Global Consumer/Other NB-IoT Device Units by Geography (2016-2022)
Table 53: Global Consumer/Other LPWA Chipsets, NB-IoT and Others (2016-2022)
Table 54: LPWA Component Suppliers by Product Segment
Table 55: LPWA Components – Profiles
Table 56: IoT Connectivity, Device Mgmt & Infrastructure Platforms by Product Segment
Table 57: IoT Connectivity, Device Mgmt & Infrastructure Platforms – Profiles
Table 58: IoT/LPWA Devices & Vertical System Providers by Target Market
Table 59: IoT/LPWA Devices & Vertical System Providers – Profiles
Table 60: (Select) NB-IoT Network Operators

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Narrowband Internet of Things (NB-IoT) has reached critical mass with announced deployment plans growing exponentially.  Last year, the NB IoT market was driven by a handful of operators, primarily in Asia and Europe. Today, U.S. operators Verizon, Sprint and TMobile are fast tracking their NB-IoT development. By the end of 2018, most of the U.S., Europe and Asia Pacific will be covered by at least one NB IoT network.

Despite the early lead by unlicensed Low Power Wide Area (LPWA) networking technologies such as LoRa® and Sigfox, the NB IoT ecosystem is rapidly over taking them.  Dual mode options have driven much of the initial NB IoT market where both LTE-M, a higher bandwidth option that support voice and mobility and NB-IoT protocols are integrated into the same chipset.  Lower chip costs, better performance and a roadmap that includes over the air updates, voice and mobility will ensure that NB-IoT overtakes LTE-M in the near term and Sigfox and LoRa over the next five years.

Metering, streetlight monitoring and parking management make up 80% of the announced NB-IoT applications to date.  However, the number of NB IoT applications is growing rapidly including solutions for traffic and waste management, healthcare, smart buildings, retail and wearables such as health monitors and smartwatches that will increasingly compete with short range wireless technologies such as Bluetooth and Zigbee.

By 2025, there will be 1.3 billion LPWA connections worldwide and NB-IoT will make up over half by this time up from <5% in 2017. 

These numbers are predicated on overcoming the following current NB-IoT limitations:
1) high costs for RF modules, 2) early - stage standards, 3)network confusion , 4) complex network variations, 5) over the air updates 6) lack of mobile operations and 7) waiting on 5G.

NB-IoT module prices are 4X too high to be able to reach hundreds of millions of connections that the mobile network operators are allocating.  Enter fabless semiconductor ARM who has integrated power amplification, SIM and front-end modules into their licensable NB-IoT technology. ARM’s NB-IoT consortium is dedicated to driving down NB-IoT chip costs to less than $5. 

LoRa has emerged as NB-IoT’s nearest competitor that will also capture a significant portion of the LPWA market in the next five years largely due its adaptability to serve different types of applications in private and public network deployments that are complementary to NB-IoT.

Our analysis of nearly 100 LPWA network operators found that 1 in 4 are planning/developing NB-IoT networks today including most of the top tier mobile operators. Over half of the NB-IoT network operators today are from the Asia Pacific region.  A few examples of NB-IoT network operators with varying stages of network rollouts include China Telecom, China Unicom, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom and its subsidiary T-Mobile, KDDI, NTT Docomo, Singtel, SoftBank, Sprint, Telecom Italia, Telefónica, Telia, Telkomsel, Verizon and Vodafone. 

Our phone interviews and analysis of hundreds of LPWA network operator announcements found that NB-IoT makes up about 40% of the these. The pace of activity has accelerated over the past 12 months and at the current rate the activity level will increase by 18X between 2016 and 2018.

In this report we analyze the market opportunity, competitive threats and status of NB-IoT network rollouts and commercial deployments, based on 250 interviews by phone and online surveys as well as an exhaustive review of the NB-IoT value system. It includes market size forecasts (2016-2022) for connected devices, annual unit shipments and breakdowns by market, application, technology, geography and equipment/services; the results from several surveys; an in-depth technology evaluation that compares NB-IoT to LoRaWAN™ and other LPWA technologies; and an in-depth an alysis of the growing NB-IoT ecosystem.

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  • KDDI
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  • Orange
  • NTT Docomo
  • Proximus
  • Qowisio
  • Senet
  • Sigfox
  • Singtel
  • SK Telecom
  • SoftBank
  • Sprint
  • Swisscom
  • Tata
  • Telecom Italia (TIM)
  • Telefónica
  • Telia
  • Telkomsel
  • Telstra
  • Telus
  • Verizon
  • Vodafone
  • Zain
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