Global Electric Vehicle Market Outlook, 2018

  • ID: 4515813
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 148 Pages
  • Frost & Sullivan
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More than 1.6 Million EVs are Likely to be Sold Globally

The electric vehicle market reached the 1.2-million sales mark for the first time, with more than 165 models available for sale. China is leading the market with 48% market share followed by Europe with 26%. Solid-state batteries are likely to be the 'game changers' of future battery chemistries, as they render 2.5 times higher density than lithium-ion. In the last 6 months, more than 10 automakers have announced future EV launch plans. Based on the announcements, EVs now have a market potential of about 25 million units that will be sold by 2025; more than 400 models will be made available.

The Tesla Gigafactory is currently 35% operational and aims to produce 50 GWh of batteries in 2018. On full capacity, it will manufacture 150 GWh which will power an equivalent of 1.5 million vehicles with a 100 kWh battery capacity. Toyota, Fisker and BMW are likely to be the first automakers to adopt the battery in its electric vehicles by 2023. The electric vehicle charging infrastructure challenge has not yet been addressed, as there is a need for more charging stations globally.

Currently, the density of charging stations is high in limited areas or regions where an EV sale is highest. EVs are likely to cost the same as conventional cars by 2020 which will be a huge threat to the conventional car industry. The EV industry will no longer require financial support from the government to regularise the price of an EV in the form of cash incentives. Logistics companies, such as DHL, DPD, TNT, etc., are switching to a 100% electric fleet by replacing current conventional vehicles with electric vehicles that are equally competent and a perfect fit for the business model. OEMs are shifting to 100% electric vans by 2020.

11 OEMs have announced EV milestones and targets. If all the announcements made so far were to come true, there will be about 25 million EVs sold by 2025 or 20% of all cars sold would be EVs. Energy and petrochemical companies have started investing heavily in establishing electric vehicle charging stations, as they are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of the electric vehicle market. Shell acquired the largest infrastructure operator 'The New Motion' in the Netherlands which owns a network of 30,000 charging stations.

Key Questions This Research Will Answer

  • What are the current and future market trends of the electric vehicle market?
  • How will the market transform in 2018 in terms of the geographic growth?
  • What are the current and future trends in eLCV market?
  • What is the retail strategy adopted to promote electric vehicles?
  • What is the future of DC and ultra-fast charging?
  • Which models are likely to be launched in next 2 to 3 years?
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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Top 7 Findings Expected to Influence the EV Car Market
  • Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Sales Mix to 2025
  • EV Market Outlook 2017 - Global
  • EV Sales by Country - Top 10
  • EV Targets Announced by OEMs in 2017
  • Battery Capacity Range and Impact on Battery Price Roadmap
  • Geographical Distribution of Charging Stations
  • Battery Portfolio - Battery Value Chain Mapping
  • Ecosystem - Electric Vehicles and Energy Management System
  • Analysis of Motor Rating Broken Down by Power Range
  • Why Urban Logistics will Shape the Electric Light Commercial Vehicle?
  • Key Factors Shaping the Future of Electric Light Commercial Vehicle
  • Trends in Automotive Retail Stores
  • New Dedicated Platforms - Powertrain Flexibility Comparison

2. RESEARCH SCOPE AND SEGMENTATION

  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions this Study will Answer
  • Research Background
  • Research Methodology
  • Key OEMs or Participant Groups Compared in this Study

3. 2017 INDUSTRY KEY FINDINGS

  • Top 7 Findings Expected to Influence the EV Car Market
  • Key Predictions for 2018
  • EV Targets Announced by OEMs in 2017
  • Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Sales Mix to 2025
  • xEV Passenger Car Breakdown by Region, Including Hybrids - 2025

4. MARKET MEASUREMENTS

  • Electric Vehicles Sold in the Last Decade
  • EV Market Outlook 2017 - Global
  • EV Market Outlook 2018 - Global
  • Monthly EV Sales by EV Type and Top 5 Selling Models
  • Top 10 OEMs and Model Sales - 2016 and 2017
  • EV Sales by Country - Top 10
  • Sales Forecast by Region and Technology
  • Sales by Top OEM - 2017 vs. 2018
  • Top Five Selling Models - 2017

5. 2017 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

  • Market Outlook - Europe
  • Market Outlook - North America
  • Market Outlook - China
  • Market Outlook - Japan
  • Market Outlook - South Korea

6. 2018 REGIONAL OUTLOOK

  • 2018 Outlook - Europe
  • 2018 Outlook - North America
  • 2018 Outlook - China
  • 2018 Outlook - Japan
  • 2018 Outlook - South Korea

7. ELECTRIC VEHICLES BATTERY ANALYSIS

  • Electric Vehicle Battery Trends
  • Battery Capacity Range and Impact on Battery Price Roadmap
  • Battery Production Capacity to 2020
  • Battery Portfolio - Battery Supply Chain by Battery Cell Chemistry
  • Battery Portfolio - Battery Chemistry Adoption Trend (OEM)
  • Beyond 2025 - Solid-State Batteries
  • Battery Portfolio - Battery Value Chain Mapping
  • Battery Portfolio - Battery Value Chain Mapping (Premium Segment OEM)
  • Current Benchmarking of OEM Sourcing Strategies
  • Battery Active Thermal Management Systems by OEM

8. ELECTRIC VEHICLES MOTOR ANALYSIS

  • Global xEV Motor Market Estimates
  • eMotors - Future Intended Sourcing Strategies
  • Analysis of Motor Rating Broken Down by Power Range
  • Future xEV Motor Technology Migration

9. EV RETAIL SALES

  • Trends in Automotive Retail Stores
  • EV only Retail Store or Mixed Retailing Concept?
  • OEM Retail Strategies
  • Recommended EV Retail Elements - Critical Success Factors
  • Financial Lease Type Segmentation

10. FUTURE EV LAUNCHES

  • BEV Launches
  • PHEV Launches

11. INCENTIVES AND SUBSIDIES

  • Incentives and Subsidies
  • Overview of Incentives
  • Incentive Structure in China
  • Incentives Structure in the US
  • Incentives Structure in Europe
  • Incentives Structure for India, Malaysia and Thailand

12. CHARGING STATION INFRASTRUCTURE TRENDS

  • Charging Station Infrastructure Trends
  • Geographical Distribution of Charging Stations
  • Existing Charging Infrastructure
  • EV Charging Infrastructure Deployment by Type - EU
  • Existing Charging Infrastructure
  • EV Charging Infrastructure Deployment by Type - US
  • The Next Wave of Charging - Ultra-Fast Charging
  • Vehicle-side Charging Technology Roadmap - BEV & PHEV
  • Analysis of Charging Capacity - By OEM
  • Wireless Electric Charging Roadmap - OEM Plans
  • Wireless Charging Market Estimates
  • Establishment of the 1st Pan - European EV Charging Network
  • EV Charging Infrastructure Protocols

13. ELCV OUTLOOK

  • eLCV Outlook
  • Summary of eLCV Market
  • Why Urban Logistics will Shape the eLCV?
  • Key Factors Shaping the Future of Electric Light Commercial Vehicle
  • Vehicle Range and Battery Capacity for eLCVs
  • Global Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Market, 2017
  • Electric Light Commercial Vehicles - Expected Launches
  • Case Study - DHL Goal for Emission-Free Delivery & Logistics
  • Case Study - DHL’s Unique Express ‘City Logistics’ Solutions
  • eLCVs in the Delivery and Logistics Business - DHL
  • eLCVs in the Delivery and Logistics Business - UK Royal Mail
  • Use Case - Municipality of Lisbon

14. FUEL CELLS OUTLOOK

  • Fuel Cells Outlook
  • Regional FCEV Strategies
  • Market Size - Top Markets by Sales Volume
  • Expected Model Launches
  • Cost of Fuel Cell Stack Current and Future Trends

15. GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES AND COMPANIES TO ACTION

  • Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
  • Growth Opportunity
  • Strategic Imperatives for Electric Vehicle Market

16. KEY CONCLUSION AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

  • Key Conclusion and Future Outlook
  • Conclusion and Recommendations
  • Legal Disclaimer

17. APPENDIX

  • Appendix
  • List of Exhibits
  • Market Leaders
  • Large Volume OEMs
  • Core Competencies of Tesla
  • BEV Segmentation
  • Definition of EV Charging Infrastructure
  • Market Engineering Methodology
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  • DHL
  • DPD
  • TNT
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