Middle East & North Africa Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2018 – 2027)

Report
213 Pages
March 2018
Region: Africa, Middle East
Northeast Group, LLC
ID: 4519602

Smart grid infrastructure development is accelerating in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region, showing strong potential in the near-to-medium term. In the Gulf states, high incomes, high electricity consumption, and small populations are driving smart meter deployments. Elsewhere in the region, the prevalence of high non-technical losses and poor energy efficiency are creating positive smart grid business cases. Also, extensive solar power development and grid interconnections across the MENA region are requiring rapid grid modernization.

Smart grid investment in the MENA region will largely be a state-driven process, owing to government control of nearly all power sector activity. This creates both opportunities and challenges. Gulf governments have ample cash on hand and exhibit a strong desire to modernize their countries and their economies. Smart grid deployments offer these countries an excellent opportunity to modernize their infrastructure, lay the foundation for additional energy-saving applications, and ultimately diversify their economies away from dependence on oil and gas.

But governments and investors in the Gulf are also wary of the upheavals seen throughout the MENA region. Support for current governments is built in part on populist policies such as free or nearly free electricity. Some of the benefits of smart meters can only be realized with market or Status of national AMI rollouts in MENA countries near-market prices for electricity, which in some cases governments may be unwilling to implement. Several countries have recently implemented subsidy reform policies, but these are in their early stages and it remains to be seen if cost-recovery can be achieved through properly set tariff levels.

Political risk remains a challenge – and has delayed some projects – but remains low in the highspending Gulf countries. More utilities are announcing large-scale plans, grid interconnections have continued, some electricity price subsidies have been reduced, and solar power plans have grown more ambitious. All of these trends show that MENA governments understand that smart grid infrastructure investment is critical to future growth plans. In particular, MENA countries continue to move forward with “smart city” concepts and are looking to highlight the modernization of their economies. As these projects proliferate, the MENA smart grid market will see steady growth in the near-to-medium term, setting the stage for a very significant market between 2018 and 2027.

Key questions answered in this study:

How large will the smart grid market be across the MENA region?
Which national rollouts in the region are proceeding on time and which are delayed?
How will development of solar power impact smart grid investment in the region?
What major international and local vendors are best positioned to supply the MENA market?

i. Executive Summary1. What’s New in 2018

2. Middle East & North Africa smart grid snapshot

2.1 The region in comparison
2.2 Regional drivers
2.3 Regional challenges

3. Regional market forecast

4. Saudi Arabia

4.1 Electricity industry structure
4.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
4.3 Market forecast
4.4 Utility activity

5. United Arab Emirates

5.1 Electricity industry structure
5.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
5.3 Market forecast
5.4 Utility activity

6. Israel

6.1 Electricity industry structure
6.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
6.3 Market forecast
6.4 Utility activity

7. Egypt

7.1 Electricity industry structure
7.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
7.3 Market forecast
7.4 Utility activity

8. Qatar

8.1 Electricity industry structure
8.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
8.3 Market forecast
8.4 Utility activity

9. Lebanon

9.1 Electricity industry structure
9.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
9.3 Market forecast
9.4 Utility activity

10. Kuwait

10.1 Electricity industry structure
10.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
10.3 Market forecast
10.4 Utility activity

11. Jordan

11.1 Electricity industry structure
11.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
11.3 Market forecast
11.4 Utility activity

12. Bahrain

12.1 Electricity industry structure
12.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
12.3 Market forecast
12.4 Utility activity

13. Oman

13.1 Electricity industry structure
13.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
13.3 Market forecast
13.4 Utility activity

14. Iran

14.1 Electricity industry structure
14.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
14.3 Market forecast
14.4 Utility activity

15. Iraq

15.1 Electricity industry structure
15.2 Smart grid regulatory environment
15.3 Market forecast
15.4 Utility activity

16. Other MENA countries

16.1 Market drivers and barriers
16.2 Algeria
16.3 Morocco
16.4 Tunisia
16.5 The rest of the region
16.6 Battery storage

17. Vendor activity

17.1 MENA-based vendors
17.2 International vendors active in smart grid in MENA
17.3 Battery storage vendors

18. Appendixi. Methodologyii. Smart grid overviewiii. Global smart grid activityiv. List of companies covered in this report

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables:

MENA smart grid: key takeaways
AMI deployments at top MENA distribution utilities
Table 1.1: Recently awarded contracts in Egypt
Figure 1.1: Saudi Arabia smart grid roadmap – proposed timeline
Table 1.2: AMI activity in MENA since 2015
Figure 1.2: Status of national AMI rollouts in MENA countries
Table 1.3 : Upcoming and completed solar projects in the MENA region
Table 1.4.: Storage projects in the MENA region
Figure 1.3: Electricity tariff reform
Figure 1.4: Iraq key points
Figure 1.5: Iraq key points
Figure 1.6: Iran smart meter and economic timeline
Figure 1.7: Other smart grid activity in MENA region
Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential
Figure 2.2: Per-capita electricity consumption
Figure 2.3: Per-capita CO2 emissions
Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth
Figure 2.5: Per-capita electricity consumption in MENA
Figure 2.6: Renewable sources of energy in MENA
Figure 2.7: T&D losses in MENA
Figure 2.8: GCC Interconnection
Table 2.1: Smart grid market drivers and barriers in MENA
Figure 2.9: Electricity prices in MENA
Figure 3.1: MENA AMI penetration rate
Figure 3.2: Gulf AMI penetration rate
Figure 3.3: MENA cumulative smart grid forecast by country
Table 3.1: MENA cumulative smart grid forecast data by country
Figure 3.4: MENA cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 3.2: MENA cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 3.5: Annual AMI deployments in MENA
Figure 3.6: AMI cost breakdown
Figure 3.7: AMI forecast by segment
Table 3.3: AMI forecast data by segment
Figure 3.8: DA forecast by segment
Table 3.4: DA forecast data by segment
Figure 3.9: HEM forecast by segment
Table 3.5: HEM forecast data by segment
Figure 3.10: IT forecast by segment
Table 3.6: IT forecast data by segment
Table 4.1: Saudi Arabia key data
Figure 4.1: Saudi Arabia AMI penetration rate
Table 4.2: Smart grid indicators in Saudi Arabia
Box 4.1: Political risk in Saudi Arabia
Figure 4.2: Saudi Arabia smart grid roadmap
Figure 4.3: Saudi Arabia residential tariff revision
Figure 4.4: Saudi Arabia renewable energy tenders
Figure 4.5: Saudi Arabia cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 4.3: Saudi Arabia cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 4.6: Saudi Arabia cumulative AMI forecast
Table 4.4: Saudi Arabia cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 5.1: UAE key data
Figure 5.1: UAE AMI penetration rate
Table 5.2: Smart grid indicators in UAE
Box 5.1: Political risk in UAE
Figure 5.2: Abu Dhabi residential tariff revision
Figure 5.3: Voluntary dynamic pricing in Abu Dhabi
Figure 5.4: UAE cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 5.3: UAE cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 5.5: UAE cumulative AMI forecast
Table 5.4: UAE cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 5.5: Utility activity in the UAE
Table 6.1: Israel key data
Figure 6.1: Israel AMI penetration rate
Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Israel
Box 6.1: Political risk in Israel
Figure 6.2: Israel smart grid roadmap
Figure 6.3: Israel cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 6.3: Israel cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 6.4: Israel cumulative AMI forecast
Table 6.4: Israel cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 7.1: Egypt key data
Figure 7.1: Egypt AMI penetration rate
Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in Egypt
Box 7.1: Political risk in Egypt
Figure 7.2: Egypt’s 2015 Electricity Law – key points
Figure 7.3: Egypt cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 7.3: Egypt cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 7.4: Egypt cumulative AMI forecast
Table 7.4: Egypt cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 7.5: Recently awarded contracts in Egypt
Table 8.1: Qatar key data
Figure 8.1: Qatar AMI penetration rate
Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Qatar
Box 8.1: Political risk in Qatar
Figure 8.2: Qatar cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 8.3: Qatar cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 8.3: Qatar cumulative AMI forecast
Table 8.4: Qatar cumulative AMI forecast data
Box 8.2: Pearl Qatar
Table 9.1: Lebanon key data
Figure 9.1: Lebanon AMI penetration rate
Table 9.2: Smart grid indicators in Lebanon
Box 9.1: Political risk in Lebanon
Figure 9.2: Lebanon cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 9.3: Lebanon cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 9.3: Lebanon cumulative AMI forecast
Table 9.4: Lebanon cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 10.1: Kuwait key data
Figure 10.1: Kuwait AMI penetration rate
Table 10.2: Smart grid indicators in Kuwait
Box 10.1: Political risk in Kuwait
Figure 10.2: Kuwait cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 10.3: Kuwait cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 10.3: Kuwait cumulative AMI forecast
Table 10.4: Kuwait cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 11.1: Jordan key data
Figure 11.1: Jordan AMI penetration rate
Table 11.2: Smart grid indicators in Jordan
Box 11.1: Political risk in Jordan
Figure 11.2: Jordan cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 11.3: Jordan cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 11.3: Jordan cumulative AMI forecast
Table 11.4: Jordan cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 12.1: Bahrain key data
Figure 12.1: Bahrain AMI penetration rate
Table 12.2: Smart grid indicators in Bahrain
Box 12.1: Political risk in Bahrain
Figure 12.2: Bahrain cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 12.3: Bahrain cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 12.3: Bahrain cumulative AMI forecast
Table 12.4: Bahrain cumulative AMI forecast data
Figure 13.4: Capacity and peak demand in Bahrain in 2011 and 2013
Table 13.1: Oman key data
Figure 13.1: Oman AMI penetration rate
Table 13.2: Smart grid indicators in Oman
Box 13.1: Political risk in Oman
Figure 13.2: Oman cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 13.3: Oman cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 13.3: Oman cumulative AMI forecast
Table 13.4: Oman cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 14.1: Iran key data
Figure 14.1: Iran AMI penetration rate
Table 14.2: Smart grid indicators in Iran
Box 14.1: Political risk in Iran
Figure 14.2: Smart meter and economic timeline
Figure 14.3: Iran cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 14.3: Iran cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 14.4: Iran cumulative AMI forecast
Table 14.4: Iran cumulative AMI forecast data
Figure 14.5: FAHAM Phase I deployments
Table 15.1: Oman key data
Figure 15.1: Oman AMI penetration rate
Table 15.2: Smart grid indicators in Oman
Box 15.1: Political risk in Oman
Figure 15.2: Oman cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 15.3: Oman cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 15.3: Oman cumulative AMI forecast
Table 15.4: Oman cumulative AMI forecast data
Table 16.1: Key data for other MENA countries
Figure 16.1: T&D losses in MENA
Figure 17.1: Market share of leading AMI vendors in MENA
Northeast Group Smart Grid Forecasting Model
Figure 18.1: Smart grid value chain
Figure 18.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in MENA
Table 18.1: Benefits of AMI in MENA
Table 18.2: Demand Response Options
Figure 18.3: Global smart grid activity
Figure 18.4: Cumulative smart grid investment from 2018 – 2027 by region
Figure 18.5: Annual smart grid and AMI investment by region in 2027
Table 18.3: Global smart grid drivers and activity

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