PharmaVitae explores Celgene’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook, encompassing corporate strategy, marketed portfolio, pipeline potential, and financial performance over 2017-27.
Snapshot
Model updates
Analysis structure
Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in Celgene’s portfolio out to 2027 using 10-year in-house sales forecasts segmented by the following sections.
Quarterly review
Company context
Facts and figures
Portfolio analysis
Snapshot
- Overview - Celgene is set to experience a 1.8% CAGR during 2017-27 as its I&;I products grow to offset strong generic headwinds to its oncology portfolio from 2022.
- Key themes - Revlimid will drive strong mid-term growth of Celgene’s oncology portfolio, reaching over $12bn in sales in 2022; Celgene’s I&;I portfolio will continue to make progress, becoming the company’s fastest-growing therapy area, despite recent setbacks to I&;I products; Celgene faces a severe patent cliff beginning in 2022 with generic launches for Revlimid, Abraxane, and Pomalyst set to erode over $9bn from the company’s peak expiry portfolio revenue; Celgene’s outlook hinges on the success of its launch portfolio, which PharmaVitae forecasts to add $6.3bn in new sales by 2027 and to fully offset the company’s declining expiry portfolio revenue.
- Out to 2022 - Over 2017-22 Celgene will experience a 10.1% CAGR, driven by blockbusters Revlimid, Pomalyst, and Otezla.
- Out to 2027 - Sales will peak in 2023 at $21.5bn before declining severely with the launch of Revlimid, Abraxane, and Pomalyst generics. However, product revenue will grow at a CAGR of 1.8% over the forecast period.
- Pipeline - Celgene’s launch products will add $6.3bn in revenue out to 2027, offsetting the company’s expiry portfolio. Additionally, significant potential value lies in the company’s key pipeline assets, including bb2121, JCAR017, and BGB-A317.
- Lifecycle - Celgene faces a severe patent cliff in 2022 with expiry product revenue set to fall by over $9bn during 2022-27, due to losses of exclusivity for Revlimid, Abraxane, and Pomalyst. The company’s mid-term outlook hinges on its success in preventing early entry of Revlimid generics. Celgene continues to follow an aggressive deal-making strategy to supplement its pipeline and fill the revenue void expected from Revlimid’s patent expiry.
- Major events - Acquisitions of Juno and Impact; FDA issued RTF letter for ozanimod in multiple sclerosis; pivotal trial readouts expected for luspatercept, bb2121, and JCAR017.
Model updates
- adjusted Revlimid forecast: removed chronic lymphocytic leukemia indication expansion; removed newly diagnosed follicular lymphoma indication expansion
- early generic entry for Abraxane in Q1 2022
- CC-486’s launch delayed to Q4 2019
- ozanimod’s launch in relapsing multiple sclerosis delayed to Q1 2019
- added fedratinib.
Analysis structure
Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in Celgene’s portfolio out to 2027 using 10-year in-house sales forecasts segmented by the following sections.
Quarterly review
- What were the major highlights from Celgene’s latest earnings call and quarterly performance?
Company context
- How is Celgene strategically poised out to 2027?
- What are Celgene’s key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats?
- What are Celgene’s key catalysts over the next four quarters?
Facts and figures
- What is Celgene’s forecasted sales performance out to 2027?
- What is the revenue trajectory of Celgene’s current top 10 products out to 2027?
- Which therapy areas will experience the largest growth and decline?
- What are the portfolio weightings of Celgene based on the lifecycle of its products?
Portfolio analysis
- Why will specific therapy areas experience the largest growth and decline?
- What are the detailed competitive dynamics at play in Celgene’s important therapeutic markets?
- How is Celgene adapting strategically to internal and external headwinds?
Table of Contents
OVERVIEWSnapshot
Model updates
Analysis structure
Q4 2017
Q4 2017 Review: Celgene finishes 2017 strong with Juno and Impact acquisitions
Q3 2017
Q3 2017 Review: Celgene's outlook is tempered as Otezla loses momentum
STRATEGY ANALYSIS
Celgene is a global leader in oncology
Revlimid will experience strong mid-term growth
Strong investor pressure
Celgene looks to cellular immunotherapy to drive future growth
Long-term outlook
Celgene’s SWOT analysis
Celgene’s key events and catalysts
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
Q4 2017
FACTS AND FIGURES
Celgene’s prescription pharma sales outlook
Celgene’s regional pharma sales outlook
Celgene’s therapy area dynamics
Key therapy area forecasts
Celgene’s top 10 products over 2017-27
Celgene’s growth drivers and resistors
Celgene’s portfolio lifecycle analysis
Celgene’s pipeline analysis
Celgene’s M&A strategy and history
BIBLIOGRAPHY
List of Figures
Figure 1: Phase I data for JCAR017 in relapsed/refractory DLBCL presented at ASH 2017 compared to Phase II data for Yescarta and Kymriah presented at ASCO 2017 and ASH 2017, respectively
Figure 2: Celgene’s prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2014-27
Figure 3: Celgene’s therapy area dynamics, 2017-27
Figure 4: Celgene’s top 10 product sales ($m), 2017-27
Figure 5: Celgene’s launch/core/expiry portfolio configuration, 2017-27
Figure 6: Celgene’s pipeline overview
List of Tables
Table 1: Celgene’s net product sales
Table 2: Celgene’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2017-27
Table 3: Celgene’s prescription pharmaceutical sales by region ($m), 2017-27
Table 4: Celgene’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2017-27
Table 5: Celgene’s oncology portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017-27
Table 6: Celgene’s I&I portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017-27
Table 7: Celgene’s key products, 2017-27
Table 8: Celgene’s sales by launch, core, and expiry portfolio ($m), 2017-27
Table 9: Celgene’s launch portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017-27
Table 10: Celgene’s key merger and acquisition deals, 2008-18
