HVAC Equipment - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The hVAC equipment market size is projected to expand from USD 101.13 billion in 2025 and USD 109.33 billion in 2026 to USD 161.46 billion by 2031, registering an 8.11% CAGR between 2026 and 2031. This report is Segmented by Equipment Type (Heating Equipment, Ventilation Equipment, Air-Conditioning Equipment), Installation Type (New Construction, and Retrofit/Replacement), End User (Residential, Commercial, Industrial), Commercial Building Type (Office Buildings, Healthcare Facilities, Educational Institutions, Data Centers, and More), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global HVAC Equipment Market Trends and Insights

Stringent Building Energy Codes in Europe Accelerating Heat-Pump Adoption

Europe’s 2024 directive outlawed new fossil-fuel boilers from 2025 and requires the worst 16% of non-residential buildings to meet minimum energy-performance thresholds by 2030, forcing owners to install air- or ground-source heat pumps that exceed seasonal performance factors of 3.5. National statutes amplify the push: France’s RE2020 caps carbon intensity at 4 kg CO₂ e /m²-year for homes, Germany’s amended Gebäudeenergiegesetz demands 65% renewable heat, and both frameworks align economically when carbon taxes and avoided gas purchases reduce payback periods below a decade. OEMs have responded. Daikin tripled Belgian capacity to 1.5 million units per year by 2027, underscoring confidence that policy-led demand will persist. Heat-pump adoption, therefore, delivers the single-largest positive uplift to the HVAC equipment market growth outlook.

Surge in Data-Center Construction in Nordics and FLAP-D Region Elevating Precision Cooling Demand

Cloud hyperscalers continue clustering megawatt-scale facilities in the Nordics, where average annual temperatures of 5 °C-12 °C allow air-side economizers to serve up to 70% of cooling hours, cutting power-usage-effectiveness below 1.2. Meta’s 150 MW campus in Odense leveraged seawater cooling to eliminate winter mechanical refrigeration and save USD 12 million per year in energy expense. Microsoft’s Stockholm expansion relies on adiabatic towers operating within 2 °C of ambient. Direct-to-chip liquid solutions now pull 80% of heat before it enters data halls, permitting 30 kW-per-rack densities that command price premiums over legacy air units. Precision cooling, therefore, becomes a high-margin subsegment, pushing the overall HVAC equipment market upwards.

High Upfront Cost of Low-GWP Refrigerant Transition for OEMs

EU F-gas quotas fall to 2.4% of 2015 baselines by 2030, forcing R410A retirement and driving capital spending of USD 50 million-USD 100 million per manufacturing site to retool for mildly flammable A2L refrigerants. Daikin cites USD 18 million to convert a single line; Johnson Controls expects USD 250 million group-wide through 2027, compressing margins by 120 bp during the transition. Larger heat-exchanger coils, additional leak sensors, and new safety certifications add USD 300-USD 500 per unit, costs difficult to pass through in price-sensitive segments. Until tooling amortizes, the drag on profitability acts as a modest brake on HVAC equipment market expansion.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Rapid Uptake of VRF Systems in High-Rise Asian Residential Complexes
• Inflation Reduction Act Tax Credits Catalyzing Early Furnace Replacement Cycles
• Talent Shortage of Certified HVAC Technicians in Mature Markets

Segment Analysis

Heating equipment expanded at an 8.78% CAGR through 2031, outpacing the overall HVAC equipment market as heat pumps displaced furnaces and boilers in both new projects and retrofits. By 2025, heating revenue, heat pumps captured 58%, while boilers and furnaces retained 32%, because large-capacity commercial boilers remain economical for district-heating upgrades in Eastern Europe. The shift widened after EU rules banned standalone fossil-fuel boilers, and the United States, by combining federal and utility rebates, compressed payback periods from 10 to 6 years.

Air-conditioning equipment, although accounting for the largest 27.89% slice of 2025 revenue, grew more slowly because North American and Western European households operate at near-saturation and focus on efficiency-driven replacements. Nonetheless, VRF and liquid-cooling solutions posted double-digit gains inside the air-conditioning category, buoyed by mixed-use high-rises and data-center rack densities. Ventilation products accounted for 22% of 2025 sales, following upgrades in healthcare and education to MERV 13 filtration under ASHRAE 241. The blend of robust heating growth and steady cooling replacements confirms a balanced demand mix that supports the long-run expansion of the HVAC equipment market.

Retrofit and replacement accounted for 62.33% of 2025 revenue, reflecting the aging global building stock and energy-savings math that favor swapping fixed-speed units for inverter-driven models. Replacing a 20-year-old 10 SEER unit with a 2025 model featuring a 16 SEER rating can result in significant energy savings. The older unit consumes 60% more electricity compared to the newer model, leading to annual savings of USD 400 to USD 600 for commercial owners. These savings not only reduce operational costs but also justify the early replacement of outdated equipment.

New construction, however, is advancing at an 8.58% CAGR thanks to data-center campuses in the Nordics and FLAP-D corridor, residential towers in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines that specify VRF at first fit-out, and Middle-Eastern industrial plants requiring precision cooling. Developers frequently allocate 8%-12% of project budgets to mechanical systems in high-performance buildings, driving significant upfront demand. The convergence of retrofit techniques, modular AHUs, ductless minis, and rooftop packaged units blurs boundaries, yet retrofit remains the value anchor of the HVAC equipment market size in the near term.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Equipment Type
  • Heating Equipment
    • Boilers and Furnaces
    • Heat Pumps
    • Unitary Heaters
  • Ventilation Equipment
    • Air Handling Units
    • Humidifiers and Dehumidifiers
    • Air Filters
    • Fan Coil Units
  • Air-Conditioning Equipment
    • Unitary Air Conditioners
      • Ducted Splits
      • Ductless Mini-Splits
      • Packaged Rooftops
      • Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) Systems
    • Room Air Conditioners
    • Packaged Terminal Air Conditioners
    • Chillers
• By Installation Type
  • New Construction
  • Retrofit / Replacement
• By End User
  • Residential
  • Commercial
  • Industrial
• By Commercial Building Type
  • Office Buildings
  • Healthcare Facilities
  • Hospitality and Leisure
  • Retail Stores and Malls
  • Educational Institutions
  • Data Centers
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Europe
    • United Kingdom
    • Germany
    • France
    • Italy
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia Pacific
    • China
    • Japan
    • India
    • South Korea
    • Rest of Asia Pacific
  • Middle East and Africa
    • Middle East
      • United Arab Emirates
      • Saudi Arabia
      • Rest of Middle East
    • Africa
      • South Africa
      • Egypt
      • Rest of Africa

Geography Analysis

Asia Pacific held 38.56% of 2025 revenue, anchored by China’s 85 million room-air-conditioner shipments and India’s surge in inverter-AC penetration from 30% in 2023 to 60% in 2025. Southeast Asian high-rises are increasingly adopting VRF systems, while Japanese households are swapping out their aging split systems for low-GWP models. As a result, the region is set to outpace the global average, with a projected growth rate of 8.3% CAGR.

North America delivered 26% of 2025 turnover and 7.9% CAGR, shaped by the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits and data-center builds in Virginia, Texas, and Oregon. Europe contributed 22% of revenue, advancing at an 8.6% CAGR, as the boiler ban drives heat-pump retrofits and Scandinavia leads ground-source adoption, with seasonal performance factors above 4.5. The Middle East posted 8% share and an 8.8% CAGR on megaprojects such as Saudi Arabia’s NEOM city and United Arab Emirates data hubs, where 45 °C summers require oversizing and redundancy.

South America added 6% of 2025 volume and 7.5% CAGR, buoyed by Brazil’s residential rebound yet tempered by Argentine volatility, while Africa, starting from a USD 4 billion 2025 base, is forecast to expand at a leading 9.12% CAGR as mining camps adopt solar-hybrid packaged units and urban centers retrofit inverters to curb electricity costs. Together, these dynamics position Asia Pacific as the revenue anchor and Africa as the percentage-growth frontier of the HVAC equipment market.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Daikin Industries Ltd.
• Carrier Global Corp.
• Trane Technologies PLC
• Johnson Controls International PLC
• Mitsubishi Electric Corp.
• Lennox International Inc.
• Rheem Manufacturing Co.
• Midea Group
• Gree Electric Appliances Inc.
• NIBE Group
• Panasonic Holdings Corporation
• Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
• LG Electronics Inc.
• Bosch Thermotechnology
• Vaillant Group
• Alfa Laval AB
• Stiebel Eltron GmbH and Co. KG
• Systemair AB
• Greenheck Fan Corporation
• FläktGroup
• TROX GmbH
• Swegon Group AB
• Hitachi-Johnson Controls Air Conditioning
• Danfoss A/S

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support