New Drivers of Network and Equipment Market: Cloud Computing, 5G, and Autonomous Vehicles with Analysis and Forecasts, 2018 - 2023

  • ID: 4541985
  • Report
  • 161 Pages
  • Information Gatekeepers Inc
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Adva Optical Networking
  • CALIENT Technologies
  • ECI
  • Huawei Technologies
  • Kingfisher International
  • Nistica
  • MORE

If you are involved in forecasting, manufacturing, purchasing, or utilizing DWDM, ROADMs, network Routers and network Switches, this report will become your major tool. It offers forecasts for not only units (US and World-wide, 2018-2023) and market forecasts, but also breaks down those forecasts by a number of useful subdivisions.

Today's headlines, even in local newspapers, are full of discussions about events that will directly impact network requirements and equipment markets. Cloud Computing, Autonomous Vehicles, and 5G. are so pervasive that they are common in the mind of 'every-man'. The question for network operators, manufacturers, and everyone directly impacted by network requirements is if, how, and when these popular trends will affect my business. This report is dedicated to providing those answers, as well as to integrate those answers with the requirements expected from normal usage growth.

Each of these three "New Drivers" - Cloud Computing, Autonomous Vehicles, and 5G - is explained, examined and a forecast of network requirements impact is developed and presented. To reach an integrated forecast, a complete update to previous forecasts of network requirements through 2023 is developed.

This report is a continuation of IGI's Lightwave series. This series of reports was one of the earliest to identify the importance and applications of many network elements that underpin today's fiber communications systems. These include the ROADM (Reconfigurable Optical Add/Drop Multiplexer), the DWDM (Dense Wavelength Division Multiplex) and Terabit Routers. This work continues that trend, identifying the impacts of developing technologies on the communications network.

A survey of telecommunications experts is used as an input to this forecast update. This report will use the technique of asking the experts for their view of the future and then distilling from that input (some of which will be contradictory) a consistent, unified, organized view of the next five years of telecommunications in North America. This update is then combined with the expected affect from the new drivers to achieve the overall forecast.

As a part of the consideration of developing equipment forecasts the expected capital investments of major carriers are considered. Also, a new forecast for network traffic by market segment is developed. These inputs are used in developing the unit forecasts.

A US forecast and a World forecast are developed and presented for DWDM, ROADMs, network Routers and network Switches. These forecasts are presented as units forecasts as well as market forecast. In each equipment section a description of the equipment and its major applications are provided.

A review of major vendors of each type of equipment concludes the main section of the report. Appendixes are provided that give detail for the survey used in the report, as well as providing information on traffic concepts.

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Adva Optical Networking
  • CALIENT Technologies
  • ECI
  • Huawei Technologies
  • Kingfisher International
  • Nistica
  • MORE

THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS

The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

  • General Reports on the Network
  • General Market Reports
  • Specific Systems Reports

INTRODUCTION

  • Cloud Computing
  • 5G
  • Autonomous Vehicles

THE NEW DRIVERS

Cloud Computing

  • Web-Scaled Datacenter
  • Cloud Computing Data Center
  • Cloud Computing Models
  • Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS):
  • Platform as a Service (PaaS):
  • Software as a Service (SaaS):

Impact of Cloud Computing on Network Requirements

5G

  • What is 5G?
  • 5G Deployment Plans
  • AT&T
  • Verizon
  • T-Mobile
  • Sprint

Impact of 5G Network Equipment Requirements

Autonomous Vehicles

  • Autonomous Vehicles Benefits
  • Current Versions of Autonomy
  • Issues with Autonomous Development
  • Safety
  • Business Case

Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Network Requirements

  • Summary of Impacts of New Drivers

EQUIPMENT FORECASTS

TRAFFIC - THE OPTICAL NETWORK DEMAND

Major Traffic Sources

Four Major Sources of Traffic

  • AAA Access Lines
  • Mobile Devices
  • International Traffic
  • H-S Access Lines

Demand Growth - Summary

INVESTMENT - THE NETWORK SUPPLY

Carriers' Investments

SUPPLY - CAPITAL INVESTMENT BY THE RBOCS

  • Importance of Wireline

AT&T Investment Plans and Forecast

Verizon Investment Plans and Forecast

EQUIPMENT DESCRIPTIONS AND FORECASTS

Equipment in the Report

ROADMs

Types of ROADMs

  • First Generation ROADM PLC-Based ROADMs
  • Colorless vs. Colored Ports
  • Other Names
  • Benefits and Problems with PLC ROADMs
  • The Second-Generation ROADM - Blocker-Based ROADMs
  • Other Names
  • Alternative Designs for Blockers
  • Problems with Blocker-based ROADMs
  • Third-Generation ROADM - Wavelength Selective Switch (WSS)
  • Other Names
  • Problems and Benefits of WSS ROADMs
  • Fourth-Generation ROADMS - Edge ROADM (ER)

Summary of ROADM Features by Utilization

Summary of ROADM Types by Generation

Summary of ROADM Description

ROADM Forecast

ROADM Systems - US Forecast

  • US Edge ROADMs
  • US Market Forecast

World Market Forecast

DWDM

DWDM Description

  • Physical Components
  • Metro DWDM

What is Metro DWDM?

Types of DWDM - 100, 200 and 400 Gbps Channels

DWDM Forecast

  • North American Forecast
  • World DWDM Forecast

Switches

  • Switch Description

IP and Ethernet Switches

Switch Forecast

  • North American Forecast
  • World DWDM Forecast

ROUTERS

What is a Router?

Why Use Routers?

What is a Terabit Router?

  • Traditional Router Technology

Traditional Router Applications

Router Forecast

  • North American Forecast
  • World Router Forecast

VENDORS

System Vendor Listing

  • Adva Optical Networking
  • Alcatel-Lucent Now Nokia
  • Auxora, Inc.
  • CALIENT Technologies
  • Ciena
  • Cisco
  • ECI
  • Ericsson
  • Fujitsu
  • Infinera
  • Juniper
  • Huawei Technologies
  • Kingfisher International
  • Marconi Corporation plc ( See Ericsson)
  • Meriton Networks (See Xtera)
  • Movaz Networks (ADVA)
  • NEC America Inc.
  • Nistica
  • Nokia Siemens (NSN)
  • Nortel (Now dissolved)
  • Performance Motion Devices
  • Tellabs
  • Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent) - now Nokia
  • Xtera
  • ZTE

APPENDIX I - THE SURVEY OF EXPERTS - FUTURE OF THE NETWORK

  • Analysis
  • General
  • Access Network
  • Transport Network
  • Applications

FORECAST FOR NETWORK OF THE FUTURE BASED ON SURVEY

  • General
  • The continuing forces of disruption
  • Access
  • Access Network - Wired
  • The wired network will tend toward fiber
  • Access Network - Cellular
  • The cellular network will be forced to deploy 5G in some area
  • Transport
  • Transport facilities will become virtually all fiber
  • Applications
  • The Application area will see the most growth

SURVEY DESCRIPTION AND SAMPLE RAW RESULTS

View of Future Network 2016-2021- Base Case from Survey

  • Base Case
  • Network
  • Industry

Response 1

Response 2

Response 3

Response 4

Response 5

Response 6

Response 7

Response 8

APPENDIX II, TRAFFIC STATISTICS RELATIONSHIPS

APPENDIX III, DATA TRAFFIC FUNDAMENTALS

Internet Traffic Calculations

  • Bits and Bytes
  • Transfer Rate
  • Busy Hour Traffic
  • Protocol Efficiencies
  • Peaking

Table of Figures
FIGURE 1, LIGHTWAVE NETWORK
FIGURE 2, HYPERSCALE DATACENTER GROWTH
FIGURE 3, GLOBAL DATA CENTER IP TRAFFIC GROWTH
FIGURE 4, WORLDWIDE 5G GROWTH
FIGURE 5, GLOBAL MOBILE DATA INCREASE
FIGURE 6, SOME CURRENT AUTONOMOUS VERSIONS
FIGURE 7, CHART OF PERCENTAGE IMPACTS OF NEW DRIVERS
FIGURE 8, TRAFFIC FORECAST - AAA LINES
FIGURE 9, MOBILE TRAFFIC FORECAST
FIGURE 10, MOBILE - WIRELINE ACCESS
FIGURE 11, INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC
FIGURE 12, DATA TRAFFIC FROM MAJOR SOURCES
FIGURE 13, COMPARISON OF FOUR MAJOR SOURCES TO TOTAL TRAFFIC
FIGURE 14: INTERNET GROWTH RATE — NEW FORECAST
FIGURE 15, SUMMARY POINTS ON DEMAND
FIGURE 16, SUPPLY DEMAND RELATIONSHIP
FIGURE 17, NETWORK SHOWING WIRELESS ACCESS
FIGURE 18, WIRELESS DATA FORECAST
FIGURE 19, AT&T CAPITAL INVESTMENT 2009-2018 (2018 EST)
FIGURE 20, VERIZON CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 2015-2018 (2018 EST.)
FIGURE 21, EQUIPMENT COVERED IN THIS REPORT
FIGURE 22: ROADM GENERAL CONFIGURATION
FIGURE 23: PLC BASED ROADM
FIGURE 24: DETAILED ROADM ARCHITECTURE
FIGURE 25: ALTERNATIVE M-Z DIODE-BASED BROADCAST ROADM
FIGURE 26: WSS STRUCTURE
FIGURE 27: WSS-BASED ROADM
FIGURE 28: WSS-BASED MULTI-DEGREE NODE INTERCONNECTION
FIGURE 29: TYPICAL BLOCKER ROADM
FIGURE 30: WSS ADDED TO BLOCKER
FIGURE 31: SUMMARY OF ROADM TYPES BY UTILIZATION
FIGURE 32: FOUR GENERATIONS OF ROADMS
FIGURE 33, ROADM SYSTEM UNIT FORECAST - US
FIGURE 34, US MARKET - CHANGE IN PREDOMINANT TYPE OF ROADM OVER TIME
FIGURE 35, US EDGE ROADMS SYSTEMS
FIGURE 36, PRICE FORECAST FOR ROADMS
FIGURE 37, ROADMS MARKET FORECAST - US
FIGURE 38, ROADM MARKET - US - BY TECHNOLOGY
FIGURE 39, WORLD ROADM MARKET BY TYPE
FIGURE 40, WORLD ROADM MARKET
FIGURE 41, TYPICAL DWDM LAYOUT
FIGURE 42, METRO DWDM TYPICAL LAYOUT
FIGURE 43, METRO DWDM SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS
FIGURE 44, NORTH AMERICAN DWM SYSTEM ENDS
FIGURE 45, NORTH AMERICAN DWDM MARKET
FIGURE 46, US DWDM FORECAST BY CHANNEL SPEED
FIGURE 47, DWDM - WORLD FORECAST - SYSTEM ENDS
FIGURE 48, WORLD DWDM MARKET
FIGURE 49, DWDM WORLD FORECAST BY SPEED
FIGURE 50, WORLD SWITCHES UNITS
FIGURE 51, WORLD SWITCH MARKET
FIGURE 52, ROUTER LAYOUT
FIGURE 53, ROUTER APPLICATIONS
FIGURE 54, NORTH AMERICAN ROUTERS - TOTAL - UNITS - WITH NEW DRIVERS
FIGURE 55, NORTH AMERICAN ROUTERS TOTAL MARKET
FIGURE 56, NORTH AMERICAN ROUTER MARKET - BY TYPES
FIGURE 57, WORLD ROUTER FORECAST – UNITS
FIGURE 58, WORLD ROUTER MARKET – TOTAL
FIGURE 59, WORLD ROUTER MARKET - BY TYPES
FIGURE 60: TRAFFIC/SPEED RELATIONSHIPS
FIGURE 61: EXAMPLE OF VARIOUS TRAFFIC SIZES
FIGURE 62, MULTIPLES OF BYTE
FIGURE 63: NEW TRANSFER RATE FORECAST
FIGURE 64: SUMMARY OF CONCEPTS

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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  • Adva Optical Networking
  • Alcatel-Lucent Now Nokia
  • Auxora, Inc.
  • CALIENT Technologies
  • Ciena
  • Cisco
  • ECI
  • Ericsson
  • Fujitsu
  • Huawei Technologies
  • Infinera
  • Juniper
  • Kingfisher International
  • Marconi Corporation plc ( See Ericsson)
  • Meriton Networks (See Xtera)
  • Movaz Networks (ADVA)
  • NEC America Inc.
  • Nistica
  • Nokia Siemens (NSN)
  • Nortel (Now dissolved)
  • Performance Motion Devices
  • Tellabs
  • Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent) - now Nokia
  • Xtera
  • ZTE
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
5 of 4
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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