Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2026

  • ID: 4544563
  • Report
  • Region: Global
  • 319 pages
  • GlobalData
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Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2026

Summary

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) (ICD-10: H35.3) is one of the leading causes of vision loss among persons ages 50 years and over in developed countries and is the third leading cause of vision loss worldwide, after cataract and glaucoma (WHO, 2017). The exact cause of AMD is unknown; however, age is a major risk factor of AMD.

There are two major forms of AMD; “dry” (dAMD; nonexudative or atrophic) and “wet” (wAMD; exudative or neovascular) AMD. AMD is characterized by progression from early to intermediate and subsequently to the two major advanced forms of dAMD and wAMD: geographic atrophy (GA) and choroidal neovascularization (CNV), respectively.

The AMD market is about to enter an exciting phase over the next decade with the arrival of three novel therapies for dAMD, as well as the launches of two longer-duration anti-VEGF therapies and one adjunctive therapies to anti-VEGF for the treatment of wet AMD (wAMD). The AMD market is expected to increase from around $4.9B to $11.5B over the 10-year forecast period from 2016-2026. The launch of new drugs in both dAMD and wAMD will drive a significant market growth and the rapidly aging population will contribute to this growth. The population of wAMD patients in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan) covered in this report is expected to increase from 1.8 million people in 2016 to 2.4 million in 2026. The author estimates the number of dry AMD (dAMD) patients with the late stage of the disease, called geographic atrophy (GA), at 1.5 million, which will increase to 2.1 million by 2026.

The major drivers of growth in the AMD market during the forecast period include:
  • New product launches will be strong drivers in both the wAMD and dAMD markets.
  • The availability of therapies for GA will drive a sustained increase of treated GA cases, expanding this market.
  • The aging populations in the 7MM will contribute to the growth of AMD markets, together with an expected increase in the diagnosis of the disease.
  • The high annual cost of therapy (ACOT) for pipeline drugs means they will generate high sales and drive growth, curtailing the impact of the expiring patent protections of current therapies.
The report "Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2026", provides overview Overview of AMD, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.

In particular, this report provides the following:
  • Annualized AMD therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns in two patient segments (GA due to dry AMD and wet AMD), forecast from 2016 to 2026.
  • Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the AMD therapeutics market.
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for AMD therapy. The most promising candidates in Phase IIb and Phase III developments are profiled.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global AMD therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Companies mentioned in this report: Roche, Genentech, Novartis, Alcon, Regeneron, Bayer, Valeant, Allergan, Ohr, Ophthotech, Apellis, Opthea, Chugai, Pfizer, Santen, PanOptica, SciFluor Life Sciences, Tyrogenex, RXi Pharmaceuticals, Janssen, Astellas Pharma

Scope
  • Overview of AMD, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
  • Annualized AMD therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns in two patient segments (GA due to dry AMD and wet AMD), forecast from 2016 to 2026.
  • Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the AMD therapeutics market.
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for AMD therapy. The most promising candidates in Phase IIb and Phase III developments are profiled.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global AMD therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to:
  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global AMD therapeutics market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global AMD therapeutics market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analysing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Alcon
  • Astellas Pharma
  • Genentech
  • Ohr
  • PanOptica
  • Roche
  • MORE
1 Table of Contents

2 Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Executive Summary
2.1 Significant Growth Expected in the AMD Market from 2016 to 2026
2.2 R&D and Corporate Strategies Within the AMD Market
2.3 Current Therapies for AMD Leave Abundant Unmet Needs
2.4 Opportunities Will Remain for New Entrants
2.5 Late-Stage Pipeline Drugs Entering the AMD Market Will Be a Key Driver of Growth
2.6 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction
3.1 Catalyst
3.2 Related Reports
3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview
4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
4.1.1 Overview
4.1.2 dAMD
4.1.3 wAMD
4.1.4 Genetic Targets of Interest
4.2 Classification
4.3 Symptoms
4.4 Prognosis

5 Epidemiology
5.1 Disease Background
5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
5.3 Global and Historical Trends
5.4 Forecast Methodology
5.4.1 Sources Used
5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
5.4.3 Total Prevalent Cases of AMD, Early AMD, Late AMD, Late Dry AMD, Late Wet AMD, and Large Drusen
5.4.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of AMD, Early AMD, Late AMD, Late Dry AMD, Late Wet AMD, and Large Drusen
5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for AMD (2016-2026)
5.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases of AMD
5.5.2 Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AMD
5.5.3 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AMD
5.5.4 Total Prevalent Cases of Early AMD
5.5.5 Total Prevalent Cases of Late AMD
5.5.6 Total Prevalent Cases of Late Dry AMD
5.5.7 Total Prevalent Cases of Late Wet AMD
5.5.8 Total Prevalent Cases of Large Drusen
5.5.9 Diagnosed Incident Cases of AMD
5.5.10 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of AMD
5.5.11 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of AMD
5.5.12 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Early AMD
5.5.13 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Late AMD
5.5.14 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Late Dry AMD
5.5.15 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Late Wet AMD
5.5.16 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Large Drusen
5.6 Discussion
5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
5.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis
5.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis

6 Disease Management
6.1 Diagnosis Overview
6.2 Treatment Overview
6.2.1 Treatment Guidelines and Leading Prescribed Drugs
6.2.2 Clinical Practice
6.2.3 dAMD
6.2.4 wAMD

7 Competitive Assessment
7.1 Overview
7.2 Lucentis (Ranibizumab)
7.2.1 Overview
7.2.2 Efficacy
7.2.3 Safety
7.2.4 Forecast
7.3 Avastin (Bevacizumab)
7.3.1 Overview
7.3.2 Efficacy
7.3.3 Safety
7.3.4 SWOT Analysis
7.3.5 Forecast
7.4 Eylea (Aflibercept)
7.4.1 Overview
7.4.2 Efficacy
7.4.3 Safety
7.4.4 SWOT Analysis
7.4.5 Forecast
7.5 Macugen (Pegaptanib Sodium)
7.5.1 Overview
7.5.2 Efficacy
7.5.3 Safety
7.6 Visudyne (Verteporfin)
7.6.1 Overview
7.6.2 Efficacy
7.6.3 Safety
7.6.4 SWOT Analysis
7.6.5 Forecast

8 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
8.1 Overview
8.2 Treatment for Dry AMD
8.2.1 Unmet Need
8.2.2 Gap Analysis
8.2.3 Opportunity
8.3 Longer Acting Therapy
8.3.1 Unmet Need
8.3.2 Gap Analysis
8.3.3 Opportunity
8.4 Increased Anti-VEGF Efficacy
8.4.1 Unmet Need
8.4.2 Gap Analysis
8.4.3 Opportunity
8.5 Less Invasive Formulations
8.5.1 Unmet Need
8.5.2 Gap Analysis
8.5.3 Opportunity
8.6 Early Diagnosis and Disease Management
8.6.1 Unmet Need
8.6.2 Gap Analysis
8.6.3 Opportunity

9 Pipeline Assessment
9.1 Overview
9.2 Clinical Trial Mapping
9.2.1 Clinical Trials by Patient Population
9.3 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development
9.3.1 Brolucizumab
9.3.2 Abicipar pegol
9.3.3 OPT-302
9.3.4 APL-2
9.3.5 Zimura
9.3.6 Brimo DDS
9.4 Promising Drugs in Early-Stage Development
9.4.1 Complement Inhibitors
9.4.2 Anti-Angiogenic Agent
9.4.3 Anti-angiogenic (Topical)
9.4.4 Anti-angiogenic (Oral)
9.4.5 Anti-Fibrotic Agent
9.4.6 Stem Cell Therapy
9.5 Other Drugs in Development
9.6 Biosimilars

10 Current and Future Players
10.1 Overview
10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy
10.3 Roche/Genentech
10.3.1 Overview
10.3.2 Portfolio Assessment
10.4 Novartis/Alcon
10.4.1 Overview
10.4.2 Portfolio Assessment
10.5 Regeneron
10.5.1 Overview
10.5.2 Portfolio Assessment
10.6 Bayer
10.6.1 Overview
10.6.2 Portfolio Assessment
10.7 Valeant
10.7.1 Overview
10.7.2 Portfolio Assessment
10.8 Allergan
10.8.1 Overview
10.8.2 Portfolio Assessment
10.9 Ohr Pharmaceutical
10.9.1 Overview
10.9.2 Portfolio Assessment
10.10 Apellis
10.10.1 Overview
10.10.2 Portfolio Assessment
10.11 Ophthotech
10.11.1 Overview
10.11.2 Portfolio Assessment
10.12 Opthea
10.12.1 Overview
10.12.2 Portfolio Assessment

11 Market Outlook
11.1 Global Markets
11.1.1 Forecast
11.1.2 Drivers and Barriers - Global Issues
11.2 US
11.2.1 Forecast
11.2.2 Key Events
11.2.3 Drivers and Barriers
11.3 5EU
11.3.1 Forecast
11.3.2 Key Events
11.3.3 Drivers and Barriers
11.4 Japan
11.4.1 Forecast
11.4.2 Key Events
11.4.3 Drivers and Barriers

12 Appendix
12.1 Bibliography
12.2 Abbreviations
12.3 Methodology
12.3.1 Forecasting Methodology
12.3.2 Diagnosed Patients
12.3.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients
12.3.4 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class
12.3.5 General Pricing Assumptions
12.3.6 Individual Drug Assumptions
12.3.7 Generic Erosion
12.3.8 Pricing of Pipeline Agents
12.4 Primary Research - KOLs Interviewed for This Report
12.5 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey
12.6 About the Authors
12.6.1 Analyst
12.6.2 Therapy Area Director
12.6.3 Epidemiologist
12.6.4 Managing Epidemiologist
12.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology
12.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy
12.7 About
12.8 Contact
12.9 Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: AMD: Key Metrics in the 7MM
Table 2: Biological Pathways Associated with AMD Risk Genes
Table 3: The Four-Stage AREDS Classification of AMD
Table 4: Symptoms of AMD
Table 5: Severity Scale to Assess Five-Year Risk of Progression to Advanced AMD
Table 6: Risk Factors and Comorbid Conditions Associated with AMD
Table 7: Classification of AMD
Table 8: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of AMD, Both Sexes, Ages =50 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 9: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of Early AMD, Both Sexes, Ages =50 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 10: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of Late AMD, Both Sexes, Ages =50 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 11: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of Late Dry AMD, Both Sexes, Ages =50 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 12: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of Late Wet AMD, Both Sexes, N, Ages =50 Years, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 13: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of Large Drusen, Both Sexes, Ages =50 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 14: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of AMD, Both Sexes, Ages =50 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 15: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Early AMD, Both Sexes, Ages =50 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 16: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Late AMD, Both Sexes, Ages =50 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 17: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Late Dry AMD, Both Sexes, Ages =50 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 18: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Late Wet AMD, Both Sexes, Ages =50 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 19: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Large Drusen, Both Sexes, Ages =50 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 20: Treatment Guidelines for AMD
Table 21: AMD Disease Management - US
Table 22: AMD Disease Management - 5EU
Table 23: AMD Disease Management - Japan
Table 24: Most Prescribed Drugs for AMD in the Global Markets, 2017
Table 25: Product Profile - Lucentis
Table 26: Lucentis SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 27: Product Profile - Avastin
Table 28: Avastin SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 29: Product Profile - Eylea
Table 30: Eylea - Common Adverse Reactions
Table 31: Eylea SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 32: Product Profile - Macugen
Table 33: Product Profile - Visudyne
Table 34: Visudyne SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 35: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for AMD, 2016-2026
Table 36: Product Profile - Brolucizumab
Table 37: Brolucizumab and Eylea - Ocular Treatment-Emergent Adverse Events In the Study Eye
Table 38: Brolucizumab SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 39: Product Profile - Abicipar Pegol
Table 40: Abicipar Pegol SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 41: Product Profile - OPT-302
Table 42: OPT-302 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 43: Product Profile - APL-2
Table 44: APL-2 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 45: Product Profile - Zimura
Table 46: Mean Visual Acuity in a Subgroup of Anti-VEGF-Naïve wAMD patients who Received Lucentis and Zimura
Table 47: Zimura SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 48: Product Profile - Brimo DDS
Table 49: Brimo DDS SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 50: Innovative Early-Stage Approaches for AMD, 2017
Table 51: Product Profile - Squalamine
Table 52: CNTO-2476 - Ocular Adverse Events Reported for All Surgical Subjects in the CNTO-2476 Phase I/IIa Study
Table 53: Drugs in Development for AMD, 2017
Table 54: Ranibizumab Biosimilars in Phase III of Development Within the 7MM, 2017
Table 55: Bevacizumab Biosimilars in Phase III of Development Within the 7MM, 2017
Table 56: Key Companies in the AMD Market in the 7MM, 2017
Table 57: Roche/Genentech’s AMD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 58: Novartis/Alcon’s AMD Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 59: Regeneron’s AMD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 60: Bayer’s AMD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 61: Valeant’s AMD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 62: Allergan’s AMD Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 63: Apellis’ AMD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 64: Ophthotech’s AMD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 65: Opthea’s AMD Portfolio Assessment, 2017
Table 66: AMD Market - Global Drivers and Barriers, 2016-2026
Table 67: Key Events Impacting Sales for AMD in the US, 2016-2026
Table 68: AMD Market - Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2016-2026
Table 69: Key Events Impacting Sales for AMD in the 5EU, 2016-2026
Table 74: AMD Market - Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2016-2026
Table 71: Key Events Impacting Sales for AMD in Japan, 2016-2026
Table 72: AMD Market - Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2016-2026
Table 73: Key Projected Launch Dates for AMD
Table 74: Key Projected Patent Expiry Dates for AMD
Table 75: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, by Country

List of Figures
Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for AMD in 2016 and 2026
Figure 2: Company Portfolio Gap Analysis in AMD During the Forecast Period
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that the author Expects to be Licensed for the Treatment of AMD During the Forecast Period
Figure 4: Anatomy of the Eye and Macula: Healthy, dAMD, and wAMD
Figure 5: 7MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of AMD (%), Men and Women, Ages =50 Years, 2016
Figure 6: 7MM, Sources Used, Total Prevalent Cases of AMD, Early AMD, Late AMD, Late Dry AMD, Late Wet AMD, and Large Drusen
Figure 7: 7MM, Sources Used, Diagnosed Incident Cases of AMD, Early AMD, Late AMD, Late Dry AMD, Late Wet AMD, and Large Drusen
Figure 8: 7MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AMD, Both Sexes, N, 2016
Figure 9: 7MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of AMD, Ages =50 Years, N, 2016
Figure 10: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of AMD, Both Sexes, N, 2016
Figure 11: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of AMD, Ages =50 Years, N, 2016
Figure 12: Amsler Grid, as Viewed by Patients with Normal Vision and with wAMD
Figure 13: Color Fundus Photographs of Dry and Wet AMD
Figure 14: FAF Imaging of GA
Figure 15: Imaging of wAMD
Figure 16: AMD Clinical Treatment Flowchart
Figure 17: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in AMD
Figure 18: Overview of the Development Pipeline in AMD
Figure 19: Key Phase II/III Trials for Promising Pipeline Agents for wAMD
Figure 20: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents for dAMD
Figure 21: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents
Figure 22: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Brolucizumab
Figure 23: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Abicipar Pegol
Figure 24: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of OPT-302
Figure 25: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of APL-2.
Figure 26: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Zimura
Figure 27: Clinical and Commercial Positioning of Brimo DDS
Figure 28: Global Sales of Branded Products for AMD, by Company, 2016 and 2026
Figure 29: Company Portfolio Gap Analysis in AMD, 2016-2026
Figure 30: Global (7MM) Sales Forecast for AMD, by Country, 2016 and 2026
Figure 31: Global (7MM) Sales Forecast for AMD, by Country, 2016 and 2026
Figure 32: Individual Drug Sales for AMD in 2016 and 2026
Figure 33: Sales Forecast for AMD in the US, by Drug, 2016 and 2026
Figure 34: Sales Forecast by Drugs for AMD in the 5EU in 2016 and 2026
Figure 35: Sales Forecast for AMD in Japan, by Drug, 2016 and 2026
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  • Roche
  • Genentech
  • Novartis
  • Alcon
  • Regeneron
  • Bayer
  • Valeant
  • Allergan
  • Ohr
  • Ophthotech
  • Apellis
  • Opthea
  • Chugai
  • Pfizer
  • Santen
  • PanOptica
  • SciFluor Life Sciences
  • Tyrogenex
  • RXi Pharmaceuticals
  • Janssen
  • Astellas Pharma
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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