India LNG Market Forecast 2018-2030

  • ID: 4564209
  • Report
  • Region: India
  • 110 Pages
  • Mergen Advisory
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India charms Global LNG Trade with Double-Digit LNG Consumption Growth


  • Adani
  • GAIL
  • GSPC
  • IGL
  • MGL
  • Petronet LNG
  • MORE

India has been registering a sustained growth in terms of demand for natural gas and its outlook towards sourcing LNG from global supply destinations has been promising. The positive sentiments around India as a promising LNG buyer received a significant push when India (at COP 21, Paris) committed to reduce its carbon intensity by a third from 0.37kg per capita of GDP in 2005. All the same, the government’s plan to double the share of natural gas in India's energy mix - from 6.5% in 2015 to 15% over the medium term goes well with the positive perception of India’s outlook towards developing its gas market.

LNG supplier interest has shifted towards India and China as the next major demand centres. India has been registering a steady growth in LNG imports for more than a decade. The share of LNG in India’s gas basket is close to 50%. The global LNG supply glut and drop in LNG prices has further favoured India’s appetite towards LNG which has resulted in a positive outlook towards a robust LNG imports scenario in the times to come.

The positive outlook towards a robust natural gas demand growth amid the ground realities such as domestic supply constraints, under-balanced gas pipeline and RLNG terminal infrastructure signals that significant ground needs to be covered in terms of infrastructure development and adopting innovative supply-chain approach towards penetrating gas markets through LNG. New disruptions and infrastructure developments are expected to happen in the times to come due to technological evolutions in storage and regasification of LNG at end-user point of use across industrial (ISO Containers and Cryogenic Storage) and transport segment (LCNG, LNG in M&HCV). PNGRB looking aggressive in terms of bidding for city gas distribution projects as well as pushing for gas pipeline development the upcoming CGD bidding round IX with 86 geographical areas is a major step in this direction.

This report is meant for stakeholders with direct or indirect interests in the natural gas value chain and LNG market in India:

  • RLNG Terminal Companies
  • Bulk LNG Buyers
  • LNG Sellers
  • Gas Marketing Companies
  • Oil Marketing Companies
  • Gas Pipeline Companies
  • Manufacturers
  • LNG Tank & Infrastructure Companies
  • Government Agencies/Policy Makers
  • Banks/Investors/Financing Institutions
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  • Adani
  • GAIL
  • GSPC
  • IGL
  • MGL
  • Petronet LNG
  • MORE

1. Executive Summary

2. Introduction
2.1. India’s positioning on Global LNG map
2.2. Changing Primary Energy Mix in India and contribution of natural gas
2.3. India recognizing the versatility of natural gas: Accessible, Reliable, Affordable and Clean
2.3.1. Government’s focus
2.3.2. Public sector interests
2.3.3. Private sector interests

3. Natural Gas Industry Structure - Important authorities and their roles & responsibilities

4. Analysis of Natural Gas Value Chain Infrastructure
4.1. Natural Gas Pipelines: Readiness, Regional spread, Capacity and Usage
4.2. Domestic Natural Gas supply trend
4.3. Natural Gas Demand trend: Quantum, Growth and Drivers
4.4. Demand-Supply Balance: What can be learnt from the last 3 year trend?
4.5. LNG Imports trend and shortfall met

5. Current & Evolving State of Play in RLNG Terminals in India - 2018
5.1. Sourcing/portfolio
5.2. Existing Capacities (and utilization) and expansion plans (and their status)
5.3. New capacities: Proposed, Advanced planning stage, Under-construction, Completed

6. Natural Gas Demand Elasticity - Status in 2018
6.1. Affordability basis alternate fuels
6.2. Affordability basis cut-off tariffs

7. Domestic Natural Gas supply outlook from 2018 to 2030

8. Assessment of Total Demand Universe of Natural Gas in India from 2018 to 2030
8.1. Existing gas consumption level (anchor load, CGD/PNG and CNG)
8.2. Existing capacities (refineries, fertilizer, power, etc.)
8.3. New and Expansion capacities (refineries, fertilizer, power, etc.)
8.4. Convertible demand from alternate fuels (FO, HSD, LPG, etc.)

9. Total Unmet Demand Universe of Natural Gas in India from 2018 to 2030

10. Total Unmet Demand of Natural Gas (on Pipeline Grid) in India from 2018 to 2030

11. Total Unmet LNG Demand Universe (basis RLNG terminal capacities) in India from 2018 to 2030

12. Scenarios for Total Balance Unmet LNG Universe (balance of contracted LNG volumes) in India

13. Elasticity of Natural Gas Demand on Pipeline Grid relative to affordability in India
13.1. Consumer Segment wise
13.2. State/Region wise
13.3. Convertible demand based on different fuel types (for industrial and commercial category)

14. New LNG market creation opportunities
14.1. Segmentation of new market creation opportunities in LNG in India
14.2. Case Study of some existing innovative solutions for creating LNG market
14.3. Highlighting possible avenues for LNG market development
14.3.1. LNG as a transport fuel - LNG for M&HCV and Waterways
14.3.2. LNG supply chain avenues: LCNG station, LNG dispensing stations, Hub-n-spoke and linear supply

15. Conclusion

List of Tables & Figures

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  • IGL
  • MGL
  • GGL
  • CUGL
  • Indian Oil
  • Adani
  • GAIL
  • MoPNG
  • MNGL
  • IMC limited
  • BPCL
  • HPCL
  • Gujarat Gas
  • GSPC
  • Petronet LNG
  • Shell
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