Global Risk Report - Q1 2018

  • ID: 4601526
  • Country Profile
  • Region: Global
  • 77 pages
  • GlobalData
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Global Risk Report - Q1 2018

Summary

Synchronized upturn of developed nations, along with high growth of developing economies, firmed up the global economic activity in 2017. Higher export demand, strengthening of consumption expenditure and revival of investor’s confidence is anticipated to strengthen the world economic activity further over the next year. Inflationary pressure globally is expected to rise marginally in 2018 on the rebound in commodity prices.

Global risk score stood at 40.1, out of 100 in Q1 2018, unchanged from Q3 2017, following a reduction from 40.4 in Q2 2017. Europe witnessed a reduction in risk score (32.8 in Q1 2018 vs 32.7 Q3 2017) on improved economic outlook of the region. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Bosnia, Belarus and Belgium whereas overall risk increased in Greece, UK and Czech Republic in GCRI Q1 2018 update.

Asia-Pacific region has the second lowest regional risk after Europe. Taiwan, Bangladesh, Cambodia and New Zealand registered improvements in their risk score whereas overall risk in Pakistan, Uzbekistan and the Philippines increased in Q1 2018. The Middle East and African regions witnessed an increase in risk score in Q1 2018 on the back of heightened geopolitical risk due to events such as the Qatar crisis, Yemen conflict, sanctions on Iran along with weak economic performance in the region.

Whereas, the risk score of the Americas remained unchanged over the previous update in Q1 2018, following a decline in Q3 2017 over Q2 2017. Colombia, Peru and Chile recorded an improvement in the ranking whereas overall risk in the US and Venezuela increased in Q1 2018.

Global Risk Report is based on the Country Risk Index (CRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from the Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, the author analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Scope
  • Europe witnessed a reduction in risk score (32.8 in Q1 2018 vs 32.7 Q3 2017) on improved economic outlook of the region. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Bosnia, Belarus and Belgium whereas overall risk increased in Greece, UK and Czech Republic in GCRI Q1 2018 update.
  • Asia-Pacific region has the second lowest regional risk after Europe. Taiwan, Bangladesh, Cambodia and New Zealand registered improvements in their risk score whereas overall risk in Pakistan, Uzbekistan and the Philippines increased in Q1 2018 over the last update.
  • The risk score of the Americas remained unchanged over the previous update in Q1 2018, following a decline in Q3 2017 over Q2 2017. Colombia, Peru and Chile recorded an improvement in the ranking whereas overall risk in the US and Venezuela increased in Q1 2018
  • The Middle East and African regions witnessed an increase in risk score in Q1 2018 on the back of heightened geopolitical risk due to events such as the Qatar crisis, Yemen conflict, sanctions on Iran along with weak economic performance in the region.
Reasons to buy
  • The fifth update version of the Country Risk Index (CRI) Q1 2018 ranks Singapore at the top followed by Sweden and Switzerland.
  • 30 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 35 countries in the low risk zone, 36 countries under manageable risk, 28 countries under high risk and seven countries in the very high risk zone in GCRI Q1 2018.
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1 Table of Contents

2 Flashback (January to June 2018)

3 Key Events: July - December 2018

4 Global Overview - Summary
4.1 Global growth to strengthen further in 2018
4.2 Global Overview - Key Highlights

5 GCRI - Country Ranking

6 GCRI: Global Landscape 2018

7 Regional Analysis
7.1 Asia Pacific
7.1.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood
7.1.2 Asia Pacific Region - Risk Highlights
7.1.3 Political Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region
7.1.4 Economic Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region
7.1.5 Economic Outlook: Asia-Pacific
7.1.6 Social Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region
7.1.7 Technology Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region
7.1.8 Legal Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region
7.1.9 Environment Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region
7.2 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q1 2018
7.3 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q1 2018
7.4 Europe Region
7.4.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood
7.4.2 Europe - Risk Highlights
7.4.3 Political Outlook: Europe Region
7.4.4 Economic Outlook: Europe
7.4.5 Economic Outlook: Europe
7.4.6 Social Outlook: Europe
7.4.7 Technology Outlook: Europe Region
7.4.8 Legal Outlook: Europe
7.4.9 Environment Outlook: Europe Region
7.5 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q1 2018
7.6 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q1 2018
7.7 Americas
7.7.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood
7.7.2 Americas - Risk Highlights
7.7.3 Political Outlook: Americas
7.7.4 Economic Outlook: Americas
7.7.5 Economic Outlook: Americas
7.7.6 Social Outlook: Americas
7.7.7 Technological Outlook: Americas
7.7.8 Legal Outlook: Americas
7.7.9 Environment Outlook: Americas
7.8 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q1 2018
7.9 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q1 2018
7.10 Middle East and Africa
7.10.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood
7.10.2 Middle East and Africa - Key Highlights
7.10.3 Political Outlook: Middle East and Africa
7.10.4 Economic Outlook: Middle East and Africa
7.10.5 Social Outlook: Middle East and Africa
7.10.6 Technological Outlook: Middle East and Africa
7.10.7 Legal Outlook: Middle East and Africa
7.10.8 Environment Outlook: Middle East and Africa
7.11 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q1 2018
7.12 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q1 2018

8 Methodology and Appendix
8.1 Country Ranking and Scores
8.1.1 Europe
8.1.2 Americas
8.1.3 Asia Pacific
8.1.4 Middle East and Africa
8.2 GCRI - Methodology and Sources
8.2.1 Snapshot of Methodology
8.2.2 Secondary sources
8.3 Contact
8.4 Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: Asia Pacific Region - Risk Highlights
Table 2: Key Economic Variables - Asia-Pacific
Table 3: Europe - Risk Highlights
Table 4: Key Economic Variables - Europe Region
Table 5: Americas - Risk Highlights
Table 6: Key Economic Variables - Americas
Table 7: Middle East and Africa - Key Highlights
Table 8: Key Economic Variables
Table 9: GCRI - Methodology and Sources

List of Figures
Figure 1: Flashback (January to June 2018)
Figure 2: Key Events: July - December 2018
Figure 3: Global Growth and Inflation
Figure 4: Risk Movement Q1 2018
Figure 5: GCRI - Global Risk Heat Map
Figure 6: Global Risk Score - Q1 2018
Figure 7: Global Risk - At a Glance
Figure 8: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood
Figure 9: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018
Figure 10: Regional Risk Scores: Q1 2018
Figure 11: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 12: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 13: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 14: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 15: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key Asean Nations
Figure 16: Key Regional Indices
Figure 17: China’s Debt Reached 256% of GDP in 2017
Figure 18: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 19: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 20: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 21: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 22: Nations with lowest legal risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 23: Nations with highest legal risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 24: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 25: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 26: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood
Figure 27: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018
Figure 28: Regional Risk Scores: Q1 2018
Figure 29: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Europe
Figure 30: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Europe
Figure 31: Euro Sentiments Rises Across the EU
Figure 32: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Europe
Figure 33: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Europe
Figure 34: Market Sentiments in Euro Area
Figure 35: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key European Nation
Figure 36: Key Regional Indices
Figure 37: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Europe
Figure 38: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Europe
Figure 39: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Europe
Figure 40: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Europe
Figure 41: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Europe
Figure 42: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Europe
Figure 43: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Europe
Figure 44: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Europe
Figure 45: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood
Figure 46: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018
Figure 47: Regional Risk Scores: Q1 2018
Figure 48: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Americas
Figure 49: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Americas
Figure 50: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Americas
Figure 51: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Americas
Figure 52: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key American Nations
Figure 53: Key Regional Indices
Figure 54: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Americas
Figure 55: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Americas
Figure 56: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Americas
Figure 57: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Americas
Figure 58: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Americas
Figure 59: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Americas
Figure 60: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Americas
Figure 61: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Americas
Figure 62: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood
Figure 63: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018
Figure 64: Regional Risk Scores: Q1 2018
Figure 65: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in MEA
Figure 66: Nations with Highest Political Risk in MEA
Figure 67: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in MEA
Figure 68: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in MEA
Figure 69: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key Nations in MEA
Figure 70: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in MEA
Figure 71: Nations with Highest Social Risk in MEA
Figure 72: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in MEA
Figure 73: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in MEA
Figure 74: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in MEA
Figure 75: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in MEA
Figure 76: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in MEA
Figure 77: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in MEA
Figure 78: Country Ranking and Scores, Europe
Figure 79: Country Ranking and Scores, Americas
Figure 80: Country Ranking and Scores, Asia Pacific
Figure 81: Country Ranking and Scores, Middle East and Africa
Figure 82: Broad Categories and Weights Behind the Index
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