Retail Industry - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2021 - 2026)

The retail industry has witnessed several changes during the study period with changing economic conditions across the world. The global economy, which slowed in 2019, has crashed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak resulting in a challenging forecast period for the retail industry. As the majority of products in the industry are sensitive to the economic cycles, the retail industry is expected to show slow recovery during the initial forecast period, yet the customer necessity for the majority of products is anticipated to drive the market once the situation settles down.

The global retail industry is mature and highly competitive in the developed economies of Europe and North America. On the other hand, the developing economies of Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America have been instrumental in driving the market growth. Countries, such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, are popular shopping destinations in the Asia-Pacific region, with visitors contributing substantially to the retail sectors in the respective markets. Tourists are augmenting the demand for products related to fashion, apparel, and electronics. Consumer spending, which typically accounts for more than two-thirds of the GDP, has been a key indicator of the health of the retail market. Moreover, the increasing strength of online shopping has been a major driver (especially, during the Covid crisis). Apart from this, the growing smartphone penetration across countries is driving the e-commerce channel. Also, IoT, Augmented Reality, and other disruptive technologies are reshaping the retail industry. However, price variation between online and brick & mortar stores can challenge the retail market growth.

Key Market Trends

E-Commerce is the Fastest Growing Segment in Retail Industry

Internet retailing is the modern way of shopping. With the growing penetration of smartphones and mobile devices and internet services, e-commerce has emerged as a major shopping platform in the world. The e-commerce retail market is driven by an increasing set of suppliers selling online and a change in the buying behavior of consumers, among others. The rise of online fresh groceries sales along with growing numbers of prepared food delivery companies entering this space could propel category growth by several-fold times in the next five years. Mobile-first sites, dedicated apps, emerging payment methods, and other tools are making shopping on smartphones much easier. Many retailers operate an omnichannel model, which aims to integrate offline and online channels. Asia has some of the biggest retail markets in the world in China, Japan, and India. E-Commerce sales in Q2 2020 accounted for 16.1% of total sales in the US market.

Asia Pacific is Expected to Witness the Fastest Growth Rate in Retail Industry

As rural and urban households witnessed a steady growth of disposable incomes, the spending power of the Chinese population has also increased dramatically and the retail market has matured into one of the largest and still growing consumer markets worldwide. It is highly competitive and diversified, and the market shares of the leading Chinese retail chains were receding over the past few years. In India, government policies, like FDI up to 100% allowed in single-brand retail and FDI up to 51% in multi-brand retail is further expected to fuel up the competition in the country’s retail market. The growth of the tourism sector in Asia-Pacific countries including Thailand and Indonesia is expected to increase the demand for imported products, especially in the HORECA (hotel/restaurant/café) sector. Currently, the region's tourism sector is benefitting from an expanding luxury hotel sector and greater international air connectivity. Additionally, supporting growth in the tourism sector and widespread country-level government-led investments in transport infrastructure are driving the region's growth.

Competitive Landscape

The retail market is highly competitive with few key players occupying the major market share. The organized retail market has been growing significantly with companies expanding stores and considering the business potential in new areas. Most of the unorganized retail outlets are increasingly being replaced with big retail hypermarkets, supermarkets, and other retail chains. This is expected to continue on a large scale during the forecast period, which will significantly lead to market growth.

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