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Mexico Smart Grid and Smart Cities: Market Forecast (2018 – 2027)

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  • 116 Pages +
  • July 2018
  • Region: Mexico
  • Northeast Group, LLC
  • ID: 4726711

By 2027, CFE will have Deployed Smart Meters to Over 50% of its Customers

Mexico is steadily progressing in developing one of the largest smart grid infrastructure and smart cities markets in both Latin America and among all emerging market countries.

Since the third volume of this study was published back in 2015 , Mexico has institutionalized smart grid regulations and significantly increased its near - term smart metering plans.

The country is also progressing with large-scale deployments of LED street lighting and is in the early stages of smart, or connected, street lighting.

Mexico’s smart grid development is driven by both regulatory incentives and business case benefits. Overall transmission and distribution (T&D) losses and electricity consumption rates are average for emerging markets. However, in some cities non-technical loss rates are among the highest in the world and in other areas average electricity consumption rivals levels seen in developed countries.

Slumping energy supplies and high carbon emissions have vaulted energy reform to the top of the political agenda. Recent reforms have expanded the number of small-scale generators in the electricity market, meaning that Mexico will need a more flexible and resilient grid.

The transmission and distribution segments remain entirely controlled by a single state-owned utility (CFE), and ultimately CFE and the regulator CRE will dictate the pace and scale of smart grid deployments in Mexico. All relevant smart grid regulations have been developed under outgoing President Peña Nieto and there is some risk with a new administration taking office in December 2018.

President - elect López Obrador has been critical of many recent energy reforms – reforms that have been critical in driving smart grid development. But the overall goals of smart grid infrastructure align with the new administration’s interests and changes are not expected. Increased appetite for infrastructure investment could also lead to financing for more ambitious smart city projects, which are only just getting started in the country.

Until recently, Mexico’s smart grid plans were mostly only that – roadmaps, plans, and pilots. Deployment is now well underway, and while details of a national rollout have failed to emerge,  investment  plans  have  been increased in recent years, setting the stage for large-scale investment in the 2020s.

By 2027, CFE will have deployed smart meters to over 50% of its customers and added large-scale investments in distribution automation, wide area measurement, home energy management, information technology, and battery storage.

Key questions answered in this study:

  • What smart grid tenders have been announced and who has won the most recent tenders?
  • What smart grid regulations have been institutionalized in Mexico’s T&D investment plans?
  • Which smart city and smart street lighting projects are developing in Mexico?
  • How will the recent Mexican elections affect smart grid infrastructure plans?
  • Which local vendors are active and who are they likely to partner with?

Table of Contents

i. Executive Summary

1. What’s new in 2018

2. Mexico smart grid snapshot

3. Current smart grid regulations

4. Current and planned smart grid activity

5. Smart grid market forecast

6. Smart city policies and activity

7. Vendor activity

8. Appendix

8.1 Methodology
8.2 Smart grid overview
8.3 Global smart grid activity
8.4 List of companies and acronyms

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables

Mexico smart grid: key takeaways

Mexico smart grid: leading indicators

Figure 1.1: Timeline of regulatory development in Mexico
Table 1.1: Recent PIDIREGAS tenders in Mexico
Figure 1.2: PIDIREGAS smart metering tenders in Mexico
Figure 1.3: AMI forecasts in Mexico
Figure 1.4: Recent smart street lighting announcements in Mexico
Figure 1.5: Market share of leading AMI meter hardware vendors in Mexico
Table 1.2: Smart grid partnerships between Mexican and international vendors
Table 2.1: Key indicators in Mexico
Figure 2.1: Current installed base of AMI meters in Latin America
Figure 2.2: Emerging markets smart meter potential
Figure 2.3: Per-capita electricity consumption
Figure 2.4: Per-capita CO2 emissions
Figure 2.5: Projected GDP growth
Figure 2.6: Global electricity prices
Figure 2.7: The divisions of CFE
Figure 2.8: Electricity generation mix in Mexico
Figure 2.11: T&D losses in Latin America
Table 2.4: Consumer appliance ownership in Mexico
Table 2.5: Smart grid drivers and barriers in Mexico
Figure 2.14: Ten-year price per kWh of AMI deployments
Figure 3.1: Timeline of regulatory development in Mexico
Figure 3.2: Government bodies involved in electricity regulation in Mexico
Table 3.1: Key smart grid regulatory terms
Figure 3.3: Earlier proposed smart grid goals and tasks at CFE
Box 3.1: Political risk in Mexico
Table 4.1: Recent PIDIREGAS AMI tenders in Mexico
Figure 4.1: Projected cumulative AMI deployments from 2017–2021 by region (2016 Sener projection and 2018 PRODESEN projection)
Table 4.2: AMI meters by region in Mexico, according to smart grid program in 2017
Table 4.3: AMI meters by region in Mexico, according to PRODESEN in 2018
Table 4.4: GWh saved in PIDIREGAS projects (through end of 2016)
Figure 5.1: Mexico smart grid forecast
Table 5.1: Mexico smart grid forecast data
Figure 5.2: Mexico smart meter penetration rate
Figure 5.3: Annual AMI deployments
Figure 5.4: AMI cost breakdown
Figure 5.5: AMI forecast by segment
Table5.2: AMI forecast data by segment
Figure 5.6: DA forecast by segment
Table 5.3: DA forecast data by segment
Figure 5.7: HEM forecast by segment
Table 5.4: HEM forecast data by segment
Figure 5.8: IT forecast by segment
Table 5.5: IT forecast data by segment
Figure 6.1: LED streetlights deployed by Mexico’s national program
Table 6.1: Companies participating in national public lighting program in 2018
Figure 6.2: LED streetlight forecast in Mexico
Figure 6.3: Connected streetlight forecast in Mexico
Figure 6.4: Recent smart street lighting announcements in Mexico
Figure 6.5: Smart city pilot projects in Mexico
Figure 7.1: Market share of leading AMI meter hardware vendors in Mexico
Figure 7.2: Market share of leading AMI communications vendors in Mexico
Table 7.1: Mexican vendors that have won PIDIREGAS contracts
Table 7.2: International smart meter vendors with manufacturing facilities in Mexico
Figure 7.3: Projects carried out by Tecnologías EOS, in partnership with Honeywell
Table 7.3: Companies participating in national public lighting program in 2018
Figure 8.1: Smart grid value chain
Figure 8.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in Mexico
Table 8.1: Benefits of AMI in Mexico
Table 8.2: Demand Response Options
Figure 8.3: Global smart grid activity
Figure 8.4: Cumulative smart grid investment from 2018–2027 by region ($m)
Figure 8.5: Annual smart grid and AMI investment by region in 2027
Table 8.3: Global smart grid drivers and activity