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Future of the Ukrainian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

  • ID: 4745118
  • Report
  • Region: Ukraine
  • 111 pages
  • GlobalData
1h Free Analyst Time

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Antonov ASTC
  • AvtoKrAZ Holding Company
  • Motor Sich
  • Raytheon
  • RPC Fort
  • The Malyshev Plant
  • MORE
Future of the Ukrainian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023

Summary

Driven by the need to bridge the critical capability gap and restructure its armed forces, Ukraine has embarked upon a major defense modernization initiative and is attempting to reform the fighting capability of its armed forces along the western model of network centric maneuver warfare. The Ukrainian government is also attempting to reorganize the country’s armed forces and bring it up to NATO standards, and although the progress to this end has been extremely slow, the country is nevertheless expected to steadily transform its doctrine from the Soviet model to western NATO standards.

The country allocated US$3.2 billion for defense, and the allocations for national defense are likely to increase form US$3.7 billion in 2019 to US$7.6 billion in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 19.53%. With one of the highest annual defense expenditure growth rates in the world, Ukraine is an attractive defense market. Between 2014 and 2018, the country’s capital expenditure allocation stood at an average of 19% of the total defense budget, and is expected to slightly decline to 18.1% over the forecast period. Overall, Ukraine is projected to spend a total of US$5.1 billion on the acquisition of military hardware between 2019 and 2023. The country is likely to allocate cumulative expenditure of US$27.7 billion over the forecast period.

Over the forecast period, Ukraine is expected to invest in modernizing its anti-aircraft warfare capabilities and is likely to invest in the acquisition of advanced air-defense systems. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also likely to invest heavily in procuring advanced defense technologies such as Autonomous Vehicles and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles; communication and electronic warfare equipment, trainer helicopters and aircraft, and engineering vehicles like trenchers, excavators, and armored recovery vehicles.

The report "Future of the Ukrainian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023", provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Companies mentioned: Raytheon, Antonov ASTC, RPC Fort, The Kharkiv Morozov Machine Building Design Bureau (KMDB),The Malyshev Plant, AvtoKrAZ Holding Company and Motor Sich.

Scope
  • This report offers detailed analysis of the Ukrainian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.
  • In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:
  • The Ukrainian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Ukrainian defense industry during 2019-2023, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities:list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Ukrainian defense industry.
Reasons to Buy
  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Ukrainian defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers . This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Ukrainian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Key Trends , and latest industry contracts.
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
2 of 3

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Antonov ASTC
  • AvtoKrAZ Holding Company
  • Motor Sich
  • Raytheon
  • RPC Fort
  • The Malyshev Plant
  • MORE
1. Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. About

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Current Market Scenario
3.1.1. Primary threat perception
3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy
3.1.3. Military Fleet Size
3.1.4. Procurement Programs
3.1.5. Social, Political and Economic Environment & Support for Defense Projects
3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances
3.1.7. Ukraine’s defense expenditure to register a CAGR of 19.53% over 2019-2023
3.1.8. Threat from Russia, coupled with threats of protracted insurgency in Donbass, will continue to drive Ukrainian defense expenditure
3.1.9. The defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to be 5% over the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. The majority of Ukraine’s defense budget is earmarked for revenue expenditure
3.2.2. Capital expenditure forecast to increase at a CAGR of 23.61% over 2019-2023
3.2.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Ukrainian homeland security market expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.06% over the forecast period
3.3.2. Measures to curb illegal activities such as drug trafficking, human trafficking, and organized crime to drive homeland security expenditure over the forecast period
3.3.3. Ukraine is “highly affected” by terrorism
3.3.4. Ukraine faces a high level of threat from terrorist organizations
3.3.5. Ukraine has a terrorism index score of 6.6
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Ukraine to be one of the largest defense spenders in the Eastern Europe
3.4.2. The US has the largest defense expenditure in the world
3.4.3. Ukrainian defense expenditure expected to reach 4.4% of GDP by 2023
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. Top 10 Defense Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - Projections over 2018-2023
3.5.2. Transport Aircraft
3.5.3. Land-based C4ISR
3.5.4. Critical Infrastructure Protection - Physical Security

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. A relatively small defense budget limits Ukraine’s defense imports
4.1.2. Canada accounted for 47.4% of Ukrainian defense imports during 2013-2017
4.1.3. Armored vehicles accounted for the majority of Ukrainian defense imports
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Ukraine exports a major portion of its domestic defense production
4.2.2. Russia, China, and Thailand emerged as the largest importers of Ukrainian defense equipment
4.2.3. Missiles, sensors and air defense systems were the most exported defense goods

5. Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Low-Medium
5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: Low
5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: Medium to High
5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Low to Medium
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: High

6. Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Defense sector liberalization bodes well for domestic defense industry
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Budgeting Process
6.2.2. Procurement Policy and Process
6.2.3. Joint development of defense goods provides investors with a market entry opportunity
6.2.4. Foreign investors can enter the industry through direct sales
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Small defense budget offers equipment manufacturers limited investment potential
6.3.2. Lack of necessary infrastructure impedes growth of domestic defense industry
6.3.3. Corruption and a lack of transparency discourages investors from entering the market

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.1.1. Domestic companies fulfill the majority of Ukrainian defense requirements

8. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
8.1. Key Foreign Companies
8.1.1. Raytheon: Overview
8.1.2. Raytheon: Products
8.1.3. Raytheon: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
8.1.4. Raytheon: Alliances
8.2. Key Public Companies
8.2.1. Antonov ASTC: overview
8.2.2. Antonov ASTC: products and services
8.2.3. Antonov ASTC: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
8.2.4. Antonov ASTC: alliances
8.2.5. Antonov ASTC: recent contract wins
8.2.6. RPC Fort: overview
8.2.7. RPC Fort: products
8.2.8. RPC Fort: alliances
8.2.9. RPC Fort: recent contract wins
8.2.10. KMDB: overview
8.2.11. KMDB: products
8.2.12. KMDB: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
8.2.13. KMDB: recent contract wins
8.2.14. Malyshev Plant: overview
8.2.15. Malyshev Plant: products
8.2.16. Malyshev Plant: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
8.2.17. Malyshev Plant: recent contract wins
8.2.18. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: overview
8.2.19. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: products
8.2.20. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
8.2.21. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: recent contract wins
8.2.22. Motor Sich: overview
8.2.23. Motor Sich: products and services
8.2.24. Motor Sich: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
8.2.25. Motor Sich: alliances
8.2.26. Motor Sich: recent contract wins

9. Business Environment and Country Risk
9.1. Economic Performance
9.1.1. GDP Per Capita
9.1.2. GDP, Current Prices
9.1.3. Export of Goods and Services (LCU Billion)
9.1.4. Import of Goods and Services (LCU Billion)
9.1.5. Local Currency Unit per US Dollar
9.1.6. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies
9.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)
9.1.8. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP
9.1.9. Goods exports as a Percentage of GDP
9.1.10. Goods imports as a Percentage of GDP
9.1.11. Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP
9.1.12. Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP
9.1.13. Foreign Direct Investment
9.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP
9.1.15. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Bn)

10. Appendix
10.1. About
10.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: Ukrainian - Army Strength
Table 2: Ukrainian - Air Force Strength
Table 3: Ukrainian - Navy Strength
Table 4: Ukrainian - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs, 2018
Table 5: Ukrainian - Future Procurement Programs, 2018
Table 6: Ukrainian Top Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023
Table 7: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (UAH Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Table 8: Ukrainian State Procurement of New and Refurbished Weapons and Military Equipment 2014-2017
Table 9: Ukrainian Restoration and Repairs of Basic Weapons and Military Equipment in Number of Items 2015-2017
Table 10: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2014-2023
Table 11: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023
Table 12: Ukrainian Defense Capital Expenditure, (UAH Million & US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Table 13: Ukrainian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
Table 14: Ukrainian Homeland Security Expenditure, (UAH Billion & US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Table 15: Terrorism Index, 2018
Table 16: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023
Table 17: Top Ukrainian Defense Sectors by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023
Table 18: Ukrainian Budget Formation Timetable
Table 19: Top Defense Suppliers in the Ukrainian Defense Industry By Value (US$ Million), 2018-2023
Table 20: Raytheon - Products
Table 21: Raytheon - Alliances

List of Figures
Figure 1: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (UAH Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 2: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 3: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2014-2023
Figure 4: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2014-2023
Figure 5: Ukrainian Capital Budget Allocation (UAH Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 6: Ukrainian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 7: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2014-2023
Figure 8: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (UAH Billion), 2014-2023
Figure 9: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2014-2023
Figure 10: Terrorism Heat Map, 2018
Figure 11: Terrorism Index, 2018
Figure 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2014-2018 vs 2019-2023
Figure 13: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2018 and 2023
Figure 14: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018
Figure 15: Ukraine’s Transport Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023
Figure 16: Ukraine’s Land Based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023
Figure 17: Ukraine’s Physical Security Market Size (US$ Million), 2018-2023
Figure 18: Top Ukrainian Defense Procurements in Terms of Their Supplier Relationships
Figure 19 : Ukrainian Arms Imports by Country, 2013-2017
Figure 20: Ukrainian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017
Figure 21 : Ukrainian Defense Exports TIV Value (US$ million), 2013-2017
Figure 22 : Ukrainian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2013-2017
Figure 23 : Ukrainian Defense Exports by Category (%), 2013-2017
Figure 24: Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 25: Ukrainian GDP Per Capita, 2015-2025
Figure 26: Ukrainian GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025
Figure 27: Ukrainian Export of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 28: Ukrainian Import of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 29: Local Currency per US$, 2015-2024
Figure 30: Ukrainian Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
Figure 31: Ukrainian Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012
Figure 32: Ukrainian Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 33: Ukrainian Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
Figure 34: Ukrainian Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
Figure 35: Ukrainian Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
Figure 36: Ukrainian Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
Figure 37: Ukrainian Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 38: Ukrainian Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
Figure 39: Ukrainian Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Bn), 2005-2014
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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  • Raytheon
  • Antonov ASTC
  • RPC Fort
  • The Kharkiv Morozov Machine Building Design Bureau (KMDB)
  • The Malyshev Plant
  • AvtoKrAZ Holding Company
  • Motor Sich
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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