The walnut market size was valued at USD 9.0 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 9.68 billion in 2026, further projected to grow to USD 13.91 billion by 2031, expanding at a CAGR of 7.52% during the forecast period (2026-2031). This report is Segmented by Form (In-Shell and Shelled) and Geography (North America and More). The Report Includes Production Analysis (Volume), Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume), Import Analysis (Value and Volume), Export Analysis (Value and Volume), Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast, List of Key Players, and More. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Metric Tons).
The shelled premium kernels are projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.8% through 2031. Demand for shelled formats is rising because shoppers want ready-to-eat snacks, ingredient-ready nuts for baking and cooking, and plant-based dairy products that call for pre-processed kernels. Processors such as Olam Food Ingredients and Borges Agricultural and Industrial Nuts increased their shelling and sorting capacity by 15% after 2024. Their new color sorters and laser graders now separate light halves, light pieces, and amber kernels with precision that meets the demands of premium buyers. The latest electronic graders screen more than 2 metric tons per hour, identifying defects that would have been missed in manual checks, allowing suppliers to charge 15-25% more for extra-light halves with uniform color and smooth surfaces.
North America supplied a smaller but still meaningful portion of global volume. The United States harvest in 2024 was impacted by drought in California’s Central Valley, and water allocations remain tight, encouraging investment in drip irrigation and high-density plantings. Canada filled domestic snack manufacturing needs with imports, and Mexico’s orchards in Chihuahua and Sonora gained acreage on the back of favorable United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement terms. Across the Atlantic, European producers in France, Romania, and Ukraine worked to modernize aging orchards even as import dependence persisted, particularly for premium kernel grades.
South America relies primarily on Chile, whose counter-season harvest provides exporters with a prized off-season window, offering premium pricing in Asia and Europe. Peru and Brazil continued to expand small orchards, but they still face logistics bottlenecks that limit export scale. In the Middle East, Iran’s large crop struggled under trade sanctions, channeling much of its kernels through gray routes, while Turkey’s growers balanced domestic demand with small but stable sales to Western Europe. Africa’s output stayed modest, yet pilot plantings in Morocco and Egypt hinted at long-term diversification in suitable mountain zones.
Global Walnut Market Trends and Insights
Government support programs and subsidy extensions for walnut orchards
Federal and state incentives help cushion orchard economics, funding irrigation improvements and integrated pest management. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) disbursed USD 3.1 billion in 2024 for climate-smart commodities; walnut agroforestry systems are eligible for multi-year grants that cover the costs of installing micro-irrigation and mechanical harvesting. California’s Walnut Marketing Order lifted its assessment rate to USD 0.0276 per kilogram for the 2024-25 season, funneling research dollars to drought-tolerant rootstocks. Chile’s Programa de Fomento Agrícola provides up to USD 17,000 (CLP 15 million) per hectare for orchard modernization through 2027. The European Union secured USD 1.3 billion (EUR 1.2 billion) in 2025 for permanent-crop support, cushioning producers in France, Romania, and Spain. Collectively, these measures stabilize acreage and underpin the walnut market trajectory.Rising demand for plant-based protein and healthy snacking
Health-driven consumers are making walnuts a pantry staple due to their high omega-3, protein, and polyphenol content. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA)’s formal recognition of walnuts as “healthy” offers new labeling leverage that can boost supermarket sales velocity. Emerging research indicates that walnut pellicle lipids, including oxylipins and endocannabinoids, support the positioning of functional foods. Premium processors like Omega Walnuts, which exports 100% United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) No. 1 grade kernels, are capitalizing on this demand in Japan, Korea, and Australia. Convenience-oriented packaged snacks and ingredient-ready kernels are driving the growth of shelled formats at a faster rate than in-shell counterparts within the walnut market.High Water Footprint and Increasing Irrigation Restrictions
Walnut orchards require 1,200-1,500 cubic meters of water per metric ton. California’s Department of Water Resources cut surface-water allocations by 25% in 2024, driving orchard fallowing or investment in USD 2,500-4,000 per acre micro-irrigation. Chile’s Directorate General of Water capped withdrawals at 80% of historical averages in 2025, prompting the implementation of deficit-irrigation protocols. Xinjiang introduced tiered water pricing in 2024, raising irrigation bills 30% for high-volume users. These constraints threaten output in legacy zones and shape the development of new plantings.Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
- Premiumization in Emerging Consumer Markets
- Surge in Walnut Usage in Plant-Based Dairy and Nut-Protein Beverages
- Rising Orchard Labor Scarcity and Picking Costs
Segment Analysis
In-shell walnuts accounted for 60% of the walnut market share in 2025. In-shell walnuts continue to attract consumers in China, Iran, and Turkey, where the shell serves as a signal of freshness and authenticity. Even there, urban lifestyles and tighter schedules are nudging shoppers toward shelled kernels that remove the work of home cracking. Value-added processing keeps margins healthy. Shelled kernels sell for USD 6,500-8,500 per metric ton, while in-shell nuts bring only USD 3,000-4,000. Brands are investing in resealable, nitrogen-flushed pouches that stretch shelf life to 18 months and protect omega-3 oils from rancidity. Flavor launches are accelerating, too. Roasted-and-salted, honey-glazed, and chili-lime options captured 22% of North American retail sales in 2025, up from 14% in 2023. Food-service chains are incorporating walnut pieces into salads, grain bowls, and bakery items to highlight the benefits of plant-based protein and heart health. Costco and Whole Foods saw private-label kernel sales rise 18% in 2025, supported by single-serve packs that fit on-the-go snacking habits. Competition is squeezing commodity-grade margins, yet suppliers that invest in origin branding, omega-3 claims, and traceable sourcing continue to secure premiums.The shelled premium kernels are projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.8% through 2031. Demand for shelled formats is rising because shoppers want ready-to-eat snacks, ingredient-ready nuts for baking and cooking, and plant-based dairy products that call for pre-processed kernels. Processors such as Olam Food Ingredients and Borges Agricultural and Industrial Nuts increased their shelling and sorting capacity by 15% after 2024. Their new color sorters and laser graders now separate light halves, light pieces, and amber kernels with precision that meets the demands of premium buyers. The latest electronic graders screen more than 2 metric tons per hour, identifying defects that would have been missed in manual checks, allowing suppliers to charge 15-25% more for extra-light halves with uniform color and smooth surfaces.
Complete Report Scope:
- By Geography
- North America
- United States
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Mexico
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- United States
- Europe
- France
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Ukraine
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Germany
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Italy
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Spain
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Netherlands
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- France
- Asia-Pacific
- China
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- India
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Japan
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- South Korea
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Australia
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- China
- Middle East
- Iran
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Turkey
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Iran
- Africa
- Egypt
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Morocco
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Egypt
- South America
- Chile
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Brazil
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Peru
- Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
- Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
- Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
- Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
- Regulatory Framework
- List of Key Players
- Logistics and Infrastructure
- Seasonality Analysis
- Chile
- North America
- By Form (Value)
- In-shell
- Shelled
Geography Analysis
Asia-Pacific remained the clear anchor of the walnut market. The region accounted for 65% of the walnut market size in 2025 and is projected to grow at an 8.0% CAGR between 2026 and 2031. China produced more than 1.1 million metric tons in 2025 and consumed nearly all of it, yet it still imported premium kernels to satisfy the rising demand for light halves. India’s import needs continued to climb as organized retail spread into tier-two cities, while Japan and South Korea provided a steady pull for United States and Chilean origins.North America supplied a smaller but still meaningful portion of global volume. The United States harvest in 2024 was impacted by drought in California’s Central Valley, and water allocations remain tight, encouraging investment in drip irrigation and high-density plantings. Canada filled domestic snack manufacturing needs with imports, and Mexico’s orchards in Chihuahua and Sonora gained acreage on the back of favorable United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement terms. Across the Atlantic, European producers in France, Romania, and Ukraine worked to modernize aging orchards even as import dependence persisted, particularly for premium kernel grades.
South America relies primarily on Chile, whose counter-season harvest provides exporters with a prized off-season window, offering premium pricing in Asia and Europe. Peru and Brazil continued to expand small orchards, but they still face logistics bottlenecks that limit export scale. In the Middle East, Iran’s large crop struggled under trade sanctions, channeling much of its kernels through gray routes, while Turkey’s growers balanced domestic demand with small but stable sales to Western Europe. Africa’s output stayed modest, yet pilot plantings in Morocco and Egypt hinted at long-term diversification in suitable mountain zones.
List of Companies Covered in this Report:
- Market Overview
- Market Drivers
- Market Restraints
- Opportunities
- Challenges
- Value Chain Analysis
- Technologies and usage of AI in the Industry
- Input Market Analysis
- Distribution Channel Analysis
- Market Sentiment Analysis
- PESTLE Analysis
- Overview of the Competition
- Recent Developments
- Market Concentration Analysis
Additional Benefits:
- The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
- 3 months of analyst support
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
4 Market Landscape
5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value and Volume)
6 End Use Applications and Industries
7 Competitive Landscape
