Economic & Retail Update - Q2 2018
Summary
The UK's GDP performance continued to soften in Q1 2018, falling to 1.2% growth. This is the lowest level of quarterly growth since Q2 2012 and highlights the detrimental effect that higher prices have had in curbing a core area of GDP: consumption. GDP will improve throughout the year with Q1 2018 being the low point for the UK economy and while GDP will remain significantly lower than the highs of pre-recession UK, growth will exceed 2.0% by 2021.
The dominance of rapidly growing online pureplays has accelerated the value of the online market within total retail. However, while the online market is set to grow by 33.1% over the next five years, this is less than the 54.0% growth achieved between 2013 and 2018.
Inflation has remained consistently above the 2% target since Q1 2017, a result of increased cost prices from a weaker currency. Throughout 2017, increased costs continued to push up the price of retail goods, however, while CPI is forecast to remain above target throughout 2018, the steps to recovery have now begun. Nevertheless, the inflation is forecasted to remain at or just below the 2% target from 2019 onwards. This will be driven primarily through the rising cost of essential goods such as food & groceries.
Total retail sales increased by 2.1% in 2017, however, this was driven by high inflation of 1.9%. While volumes remained flat and did not dip into negative territory, this was a significant reduction in volume growth compared to previous years as consumer confidence plummeted and consumers had to spend more of their income on essential items.
The report "Economic & Retail Update - Q2 2018", report offers comprehensive insight and analysis of the UK economy and retail environment (including forecasts up to 2023). It provides in-depth analysis of the key issues regarding the UK economy (including CPI, unemployment rate and etc.), and the key issues regarding the UK retail market (including online, offline and non-food markets).
The report helps user to -
Scope
Reasons to buy
Summary
The UK's GDP performance continued to soften in Q1 2018, falling to 1.2% growth. This is the lowest level of quarterly growth since Q2 2012 and highlights the detrimental effect that higher prices have had in curbing a core area of GDP: consumption. GDP will improve throughout the year with Q1 2018 being the low point for the UK economy and while GDP will remain significantly lower than the highs of pre-recession UK, growth will exceed 2.0% by 2021.
The dominance of rapidly growing online pureplays has accelerated the value of the online market within total retail. However, while the online market is set to grow by 33.1% over the next five years, this is less than the 54.0% growth achieved between 2013 and 2018.
Inflation has remained consistently above the 2% target since Q1 2017, a result of increased cost prices from a weaker currency. Throughout 2017, increased costs continued to push up the price of retail goods, however, while CPI is forecast to remain above target throughout 2018, the steps to recovery have now begun. Nevertheless, the inflation is forecasted to remain at or just below the 2% target from 2019 onwards. This will be driven primarily through the rising cost of essential goods such as food & groceries.
Total retail sales increased by 2.1% in 2017, however, this was driven by high inflation of 1.9%. While volumes remained flat and did not dip into negative territory, this was a significant reduction in volume growth compared to previous years as consumer confidence plummeted and consumers had to spend more of their income on essential items.
The report "Economic & Retail Update - Q2 2018", report offers comprehensive insight and analysis of the UK economy and retail environment (including forecasts up to 2023). It provides in-depth analysis of the key issues regarding the UK economy (including CPI, unemployment rate and etc.), and the key issues regarding the UK retail market (including online, offline and non-food markets).
The report helps user to -
- Build proactive, profitable growth strategies by offering comprehensive, relevant analysis of key economic indicators and retail sectors
- The broad but detailed perspective will help manufacturers and retailers understand and succeed in the challenging retail market.
- Helps discover which segments of the market are forecast to prosper out to 2023, and how alterations in economic policy will impact the retail market's future prospects
- Considering how to exploit online potential and deciding how best to target consumers via the channel by utilizing our online forecasts to 2023.
Scope
- The dominance of rapidly growing online pureplays has accelerated the value of the online market within total retail. However, while the online market is set to grow by 33.1% over the next five years, this is less than the 54.0% growth achieved between 2013 and 2018.
- Inflation has remained consistently above the 2% target since Q1 2017, a result of increased cost prices from a weaker currency. Throughout 2017, increased costs continued to push up the price of retail goods, however, while CPI is forecast to remain above target throughout 2018, the steps to recovery have now begun.
- Total retail sales increased by 2.1% in 2017, however, this was driven by high inflation of 1.9%. While volumes remained flat and did not dip into negative territory, this was a significant reduction in volume growth compared to previous years as consumer confidence plummeted and consumers had to spend more of their income on essential items.
Reasons to buy
- This report helps executives build proactive, profitable growth strategies by offering comprehensive, relevant analysis of key economic indicators and retail sectors.
- The broad but detailed perspective will help manufacturers and retailers understand and succeed in the challenging retail market.
- Discover which segments of the market are forecast to prosper out to 2023, and how alterations in economic policy will impact the retail market's future prospects.
- Utilise our online forecasts to 2023 to consider how to exploit your online potential and decide how best to target consumers via the channel.
Table of Contents
ECONOMIC UPDATEHeadlines
Economic update: GDP
Economic update: inflation
Economic update: interest rates
Economic update: unemployment
Economic update: real wage growth
Economic update: savings ratio
Economic update: consumer confidence
Economic update: house prices
Economic update: house transaction change
RETAIL UPDATE
Headlines
Retail update: total retail sector size
Retail update: total retail sector growth
Retail update: total retail sector share
Retail update: sector expenditure
Retail update: sector changes
Retail update: expenditure changes by sector
Retail update: sector growth
Retail update: total retail online expenditure
Retail update: total retail online growth
Retail update: online sector shares
Retail update: online sector expenditure
Retail update: online sector changes
Retail update: total retail offline expenditure
Retail update: total retail offline growth
Retail update: non-food retail offline growth
METHODOLOGY
Market sizing
List of Tables
Growth rates by sector, 2018
List of Figures
GDP growth, quarterly (Q4 2015-Q3 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Inflation, quarterly (Q4 2015-Q3 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Interest rates, quarterly (Q4 2015-Q3 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Unemployment rate, quarterly (Q4 2015-Q3 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Average weekly earnings growth vs. consumer price index, monthly (October 2015- March 2018)
Savings ratio, quarterly (Q4 2015-Q3 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Confidence, monthly (April 2017-March 2018) and annually (2013-2017)
House price change, quarterly (Q4 2015-Q3 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
House transaction change, quarterly (Q4 2015-Q3 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Total retail: size of the market, 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e
Total retail: annual growth rates overall and split by inflation and volume, 2013-2023e
Sector shares of total retail, 2018e & 2023e
Expenditure by sector, 2018e & 2023e
Expenditure changes by sector (%), 2018e-2023e
Expenditure changes by sector (£m), 2018e-2023e
Total retail: online expenditure (£bn) and online penetration(%), 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e
Total retail: online annual growth rates, 2013-2023e
Sector shares of total online retail, 2018e & 2023e
Online expenditure by sector, 2018e & 2023e
Online expenditure changes by sector (%), 2018e & 2023e
Total retail: offline expenditure, 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e
Total retail: offline annual growth rates, 2013-2023e
Non-food retail: offline annual growth rates, 2013-2023e
