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Global Electric LCV Market Opportunity Analysis, Forecast to 2025

  • Report

  • 123 Pages
  • January 2019
  • Region: Global
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 4750038

The demand for electric light-duty (LD) trucks will surge globally with the framing of strict emission regulations. This study provides an overview of the key regional trends in light commercial vehicles (LCVs) ranging up to 6 tonnes of the global electric truck market between 2016 and 2025. Several legislative and environmental factors favouring the electrification of trucks and the top challenges are studied in brief. Analysts predict the electric powertrain penetration in the global LCV market to be 15.9% and forecast that the eLCV market will grow progressively at a CAGR of 28.2% between 2017 and 2025. China will clearly dominate, with an approximately 44% share of the global eLCV market by 2025, driven mainly by aggressive incentive structures for fully electric and fuel cell electric vehicles, technology readiness and the installation of recharging stations in large scale. Europe and Japan are expected to be the next largest markets for eLCVs after China, with more number of product line-ups planned by the native manufacturers. North America will follow suit with approximately a 6.4% market share.

Electrification is poised to pick up pace in the short term with falling battery prices. As the demand for batteries increases, prices are expected to fall below the $100 per KWh by 2023 with high battery production capacities of 250+ GWh globally. With increasing battery availability and technology readiness, fully-electric vehicles will gain prominence and largely used across all regions by 2025. This trend will also be influenced by reducing vehicle purchase costs. Fuel cell technology will gain traction by 2020 due to advantages in packaging size and weight of the components. China, with a large number of fuel cell vehicles in the market by 2020, will be the frontrunner with approximately a 12.5% share of the total eLCV market. As the latest EV technologies are expected to satisfy market sentiments, huge investments from existing OEMs and start-ups are expected in the near term. However, electric trucks will have to prove their robustness and reliability in real-world commercial vehicle duty cycles in which diesel and gasoline powertrains have been tested and improved for over 100 years. The resulting analysis shows that sales of electric trucks will increase significantly post 2020, influenced by reducing battery costs, stringent emission regulations, broader incentive policies and developments in regards to the charging infrastructure. OEMs have announced firm production plans to manufacture electric trucks with range-extended powertrains for numerous commercial applications. Along with technology acquisition, intense competition is foreseen among manufacturers to gain market share. With the technology evolution, improving economics and policy changes across the globe, the market opportunity for electric LD trucks is forecast to reach 1.09 million units by 2025.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
  • Electric LCV Market Outlook 2025
  • Technology Advancements Aiding Electric Trucks
  • Factors Driving Electrification
  • Top Challenges in the Adoption of Electric Trucks
  • Snapshot of the Global LCV Market in 2025
  • Snapshot of the Global eLCV Market in 2025
  • Future eLCV Strategy of Key OEMs
  • Platformisation of eLCVs by Key OEMs

2. Research Scope and Segmentation
  • Research Scope
  • Powertrain Technology Segmentation
  • Definitions
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Research Background
  • Key Questions this Study will Answer

3. Market Environment and Dynamics
  • Key Factors Impacting Electrification
  • Legislative Factors Analysis
  • Economic Factors Analysis
  • Infrastructure Factors Analysis
  • Technological Factors Analysis

4. Global Market Snapshot of eLCVs
  • Global eLCV Market Forecast
  • Market Scenario Analysis of eLCVs
  • 2025 Regional eLCV Outlook
  • Regional eLCV Launches of Key OEMs
  • Regional Price Analysis of eLCVs

5. Electrification Technology Overview
  • Key Components of EVs
  • Electric Driveline Architecture Benchmarking
  • Electric Motor Roadmap
  • Electric Motor Benchmarking
  • Power Electronics Roadmap
  • Future of Battery Chemistries
  • Lithium Ion Batteries Comparative Analysis
  • Lithium Ion Batteries Continue to Make Promising Gains
  • Battery Production Capacity to 2025
  • CHAdeMO Charging
  • Charging Interface Initiative (CHARIN)
  • Fuel Cell Technology Future Roadmap

6. Regional eLCV Market Analysis - China
  • China - eLCV Market: Key Influencing Trends
  • Key Influencing Trends
  • Fuel Cell Electric LCVs - Purchase Incentive by Regional Governments
  • China VI Emission Targets
  • China - eLCV Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap
  • China - eLCV Market Adoption Forecast by Type
  • China - Market Scenario Analysis of eLCVs
  • Profile - Shaanxi
  • Profile - Cherry Karry
  • Profile - Dongfeng

7. Regional eLCV Market Analysis - Europe
  • Europe - eLCV Market: Key Influencing Trends
  • Incentives and Subsidies
  • Emission Reduction and Fuel Efficiency Targets
  • Charging Infrastructure
  • Public Charging Points
  • Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap
  • Product Benchmarking
  • Vehicle Range and Battery Capacity
  • Powertrain Split
  • Electric LCV Sales Scenario
  • Profile - DHL Street Scooter
  • Profile - Daimler
  • Profile - Piaggio Porter Electric

8. Regional eLCV Market Analysis - North America
  • North America - eLCV Market: Key Influencing Trends
  • Incentives and Support Systems
  • Key Trends in the eLCV Market
  • Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap
  • Powertrain Split
  • Electric LCV Sales Scenario
  • Vehicle Range and Battery Capacity
  • Profile - VIA Motors

9. Regional eLCV Market Analysis - Latin America
  • Latin America - eLCV Market: Key Influencing Trends
  • Incentives and Support Systems
  • Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap
  • Powertrain Split
  • Electric LCV Sales Scenario
  • Profile - Renault
  • Profile - Volkswagen

10. Regional eLCV Market Analysis - Asia-Pacific
  • Asia-Pacific - eLCV Market: Key Influencing Trends
  • Government Mandate and Support
  • Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap
  • OEM Activities
  • Powertrain Split
  • Electric LCV Sales Scenario
  • Profile - Mitsubishi
  • Profile - Treeletrik
  • Profile - ACE-EV

11. Regional eLCV Market Analysis - India
  • India - eLCV Market: Key Influencing Trends
  • Key Drivers for Electrification
  • Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap
  • Powertrain Split
  • Electric LCV Sales Scenario
  • Profile - Mahindra

12. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
  • Growth Opportunity
  • Strategic Imperatives for the Electric LCV Market

13. Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
  • Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
  • The Last Word - 3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

14. Appendix
  • Market Engineering Methodology
  • List of Exhibits

Companies Mentioned (Partial List)

A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes, but is not limited to:

  • ACE-EV
  • Cherry Karry
  • Daimler
  • DHL Street Scooter
  • Dongfeng
  • Mahindra
  • Mitsubishi
  • Piaggio Porter Electric
  • Renault
  • Shaanxi
  • Treeletrik
  • VIA Motors
  • Volkswagen