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Nuclear Industry Value Chain

  • ID: 4753342
  • Report
  • 488 Pages
  • UxC LLC
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Introduction & Overview

This report on the Nuclear Industry Value Chain (NIVC) provides an overview of each of the market sectors within the nuclear industry, including the front-end fuel markets, the overall nuclear reactor sector, as well as the back-end of the fuel cycle. This includes detailed data and analysis of every aspect of the global nuclear markets with balanced perspectives on commercial and technical issues affecting all parts of the value chain.

Although the nuclear industry continues to be impacted by the fallout from the Fukushima accident in March 2011 as well as other shifts in the broader energy markets, such as the shale gas boom in the U.S. and increasing levels of renewables, there are still many reasons for a continued expansion of global nuclear power, especially in key countries like China, India, and parts of the Middle East. The key arguments for nuclear expansion include rapid growth in electricity demand, increased concerns over greenhouse gas emissions, and a desire by nations to diversify their energy portfolios in the name of "energy security." Now is the time to assess the prospects and future course of each of the market sectors in this evolving, global industry. Each market sector has its own unique characteristics, and this report provides the reader with all the necessary tools to start the process of understanding the opportunities and potential pitfalls within each sector.

Purpose of Report

This report’s primary objective is to provide comprehensive analyses of each of the sectors that make up the global nuclear industry. The goal is to examine the current status and future prospects (through 2035) for each sector comprising the entire "nuclear industry value chain," so as to support future decisions by investors, potential new entrants, as well as current participants in the global nuclear markets.

Combining the author’s decades of experience and knowledge of the nuclear industry, this report provides detailed data and information along with practical analysis for anyone considering entry or expansion in the dynamic nuclear marketplace. Whatever your position in the nuclear power arena, it is vital to seriously explore the future of the nuclear industry and the broader trends that will impact it going forward.

While the report attempts to follow a standard format in describing each market sector, it is important to understand that each sector is unique and requires special attention to the characteristics that define it. As this is an overview report, it can obviously not do every market sector justice in describing each detail. Nonetheless, the aim is to provide a thorough analysis and context to allow for a broader understanding of the current and future prospects of each market sector.

It should also be noted that although this report is intended as an introduction to the global nuclear markets, it assumes a reasonable level of knowledge of nuclear-related Nuclear Industry Value Chain - Dec 2018 Introduction & Overview

Key Questions in the Nuclear Markets Today 15 technologies as well as familiarity with the history of the nuclear industry and developments in the nuclear fuel cycle since the inception of the peaceful use of the atom in the 1950s. If further explanation of anything in this report or related topics is required, the author’s team of nuclear market and technical experts are available for specialized consultations.

Key Questions in the Nuclear Markets Today

The following list presents some of the major issues and concerns that are present in the nuclear energy markets in late 2018. This NIVC report attempts to provide information and analysis to help inform and respond to many of these critical questions.

  • Are the nuclear phase-out policies in various countries permanent, or will they realize that turning their back on nuclear may not be in their best interest?
  • Can state and federal policies in the U.S. be enacted to keep additional reactors from shutting down?
  • Is France’s nuclear target to reduce reliance on nuclear power to 50% (down from 75%) achievable? And if so, what time frame will reactor shutdowns occur?
  • When and how many of Japan’s reactors restart? Can Japan build new reactors in the future to maintain its nuclear capacity level?
  • What is causing the slowdown in China’s nuclear program and is this a temporary issue or a sign of more trouble in the future?
  • Will geopolitics and economic factors impact Russia’s domestic reactor program and efforts to export numerous nuclear power plants?
  • How can the UK manage the Brexit fallout for its nuclear industry and related international trade?
  • Which potential newcomer countries can achieve real progress in developing nuclear power programs?
  • Can real progress be made on small modular reactors (SMR) and other advanced reactor designs to make them viable for future deployment?
  • What are the competitive positions of the various reactor vendors? Which companies have the upper hand in the current global marketplace?
  • Have the uranium, conversion, and enrichment markets hit their bottoms and are the recent price upticks a sign of further upward moves?
  • Will the current high level of nuclear fuel inventories lead to rapid dispositions on the part of some utilities?
  • Can countries finally make progress with spent nuclear fuel disposal plans?
  • Is the decommissioning market primed for fast growth due to all the reactor closures since Fukushima?

What’s New in the 2018 Report?

  • Given that this is the seventh edition of the NIVC report, the author has once again endeavored to make significant improvements over past editions in terms of the content, presentation of the information, and overall analysis in this global review of the nuclear marketplace. Highlights of the latest improvements in this new report include:
  • The report begins with a broad introductory section on "Nuclear Power in the World Today," which has been updated to the current market situation as of late 2018. This section provides the overarching context for the global nuclear industry to help inform the follow-on analyses of the specific nuclear market sectors.
  • Forecasts for nuclear power as well as supply/demand and prices for each market sector have been updated and extended out to 2035 based on the author’s complete review of the world on a country-by-country basis.
  • Current and future market trends are provided for each industry sector with a view to describing how the new realities in today’s market will lead to significant changes in each market sector over the coming two decades.
  • Each of the four front-end fuel chapters includes detailed discussions of how recent events (e.g., reduced demand, increased enricher underfeeding, cutbacks in production at mines and fuel cycle facilities, high inventory levels, shifts in contracting activity, etc.) are creating significant changes in each market sector.
  • As part of the updated chapter on reactor capital upgrades, the author has analyzed the potential impacts of nuclear plants operating up to 80 years. The possibility of "Life After 60" for numerous reactors could have huge implications for the global nuclear industry and the capital spending profile for the existing fleet.
  • A brand new chapter on advanced and small modular reactors (SMRs) has been included for the first time in this edition of the NIVC. The SMR/AR market is extremely dynamic with considerable activity by existing reactor designers as well as numerous new entrants developing groundbreaking new technologies to fit an array of specialized energy applications.
  • Given the high rate of reactor shutdowns in many parts of the world, the decommissioning chapter in this edition has been greatly expanded. This is one of the fastest growing sectors of the nuclear market, and it deserves increased attention.
  • Enhanced data and modeling support all of the price and market size forecasts presented in this report for each sector. This new modeling relies on extensive research of empirical market data as well as expert insights to provide the most accurate outlooks possible for the nuclear marketplace through 2035.
  • Nuclear Industry Value Chain - Dec 2018 Introduction & Overview

Structure of the Report

This report includes separate chapters for the different market sectors in the nuclear industry. Given the structure of the nuclear energy markets, this report is split into four main parts as follows:

  • Part I - Nuclear Power in the World Today introduces the nuclear energy markets with a broad overview of all the main issues affecting the current state of nuclear power. This section reviews the history and current state of nuclear power, leading countries, and technologies in the industry, as well as forecasts for future developments in nuclear power.
  • Part II - Front-End Market Overview provides a broad overview of the nuclear fuel cycle front-end markets with some initial market size forecasts for the entire front-end of the fuel cycle (i.e., uranium mining through fuel fabrication). Chapter 1 - Uranium Mining and Milling offers a detailed review of the uranium mining and milling market as it relates to the supply of uranium ore concentrate (U3O8 or "yellowcake"). Chapter 2 - Uranium Conversion covers the uranium conversion market (the chemical process of converting U3O8 to uranium hexafluoride or UF6). Chapter 3 - Uranium Enrichment reviews and analyzes the current and future prospects of the uranium enrichment market (the service of separative work units or SWU for enriching natural uranium to low enriched levels necessary for light water reactor fuel). In Chapter 4 - Nuclear Fuel Fabrication, a discussion of the fuel fabrication market (the manufacture of completed nuclear fuel assemblies), including both fresh uranium fuel as well as mixed oxide (MOX) fuel from reprocessed plutonium for light water reactors (LWRs) as well as non-LWRs is provided.
  • Part III - Nuclear Reactor Market Overview looks at the largest of the nuclear energy market divisions: nuclear power plant construction and operations. It begins with Chapter 5 - New Reactor Construction, which covers the current and expected future status of the nuclear construction market with a focus on reactor vendors and the global reactor supply chain. In Chapter 6 - Reactor Operations and Services, the market for operations, services, and maintenance supplies for the current and expected future operating nuclear reactor fleet around the world is discussed. Chapter 7 - Reactor Capital Upgrades then provides a detailed analysis of the specific market for large capital upgrades for current and future operating reactors, focusing on major projects that are required to maintain safe and efficient operations of these plants over the long-term. Chapter 8 - Advanced and Small Modular Reactors presents an overview and analysis of the dynamic and rapidly evolving market for small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced reactors (ARs).
  • Part IV - Back-End Market Overview provides an overview of the various nuclear fuel cycle back-end and radioactive waste management markets. Chapter 9 - Spent Fuel Treatment, Storage and Disposal reviews and analyzes the market for used or "spent" fuel reprocessing, storage, and disposal. This chapter has separate sections focused on each of these three spent nuclear fuel areas: treatment/reprocessing, storage, and disposal. Chapter 10 - Radioactive Waste Management and Disposal Introduction & Overview of Nuclear Industry Value Chain - Dec 2018
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Introduction & Overview
Purpose of Report
Key Questions in the Nuclear Markets Today
What’s New in the 2018 Report?
Structure of Report

Part I - Nuclear Power in the World Today
Brief History of Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power’s Share of Global Energy

  • Energy Demand and Supply
  • Electricity Sector Outlook
  • Analysis

Current State of Nuclear Power
Why Nuclear Energy?

  • Challenges to Nuclear Energy

Major Trends in Nuclear Power

  • Influence of Governments
  • Need for More Electricity
  • High Capital Costs
  • Reactor Shutdowns: Electricity Prices and Oversupply
  • Life Extensions Instead of New Construction

Profiles of Leading Nuclear Power Countries

  • United States
  • France
  • Japan
  • Russia
  • China
  • South Korea
  • India

Nuclear Reactor Technologies

  • Basic Reactor Designs
  • Evolution of Reactor Technologies
  • Generation III and III+ Reactors
  • Current Reactor Offerings
  • Expertise in Reactor Technology Analysis

Forecasts for Nuclear Power

  • Base Case Nuclear Power Forecast
  • Alternative Reactor Forecasts

Third Party Forecasts for Nuclear Power

  • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
  • U.S. Energy Information Administration
  • BP Energy Outlook

Part II - Front-End Market Overview
Front-End Market Size Overview
Current and Future Market Trends

  • Future Demand Uncertainty
  • Accelerating Supply Responses
  • Shifting Nature of China’s Approach to Fuel Supply
  • Continued Prominence of Inventories and Secondary Supplies
  • Maturing Nature of the Mid-Term Market
  • Utility Focus on Fuel Cycle Cost Optimization

1. Uranium Mining and Milling
Introduction to Sector

  • Uranium Mining Methods

Market Overview

  • History of Uranium Prices

Price Movements and Market Activity

  • Spot Price Movements
  • Spot Market Activity
  • Long-Term Price Movement
  • Long-Term Market Activity

Recent Developments

  • Uranium Production Rationalization
  • Producer Purchasing to Cover Sales Commitments
  • Re-emergence of Investor Interest
  • Shift in U.S. Government Inventory Management Policy
  • Return of Uranium Trade Wars
  • Continued Prominence of Spot and Mid-Term Market
  • Utility Long-Term Contracting Remains Limited

Key Players

  • Kazatomprom
  • Orano
  • Cameco Corporation
  • Uranium One
  • ARMZ
  • Rio Tinto Uranium
  • CNNC/CGN
  • BHP Billiton
  • Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Combine
  • Paladin Energy Ltd
  • Other Producers
  • Secondary Supplies

Market Shares
Supply and Demand
Pricing and Profit Margins

  • Price Forecast
  • Profit Margins

Total Market Size

  • Regional Market Sizes

Future Market Trends

  • Limited Utility Requirements in Near- to Medium-Term
  • China: Uranium Demand Wildcard
  • Uncertainty About Future Production
  • Policy and Trade Actions Could Reshape the Market
  • The Changing Role of Secondary Supplies
  • Continued Influence of Enrichers on the Uranium Market
  • Sustained Inventory Drawdown
  • Gradual Shift from Inventory-Driven to Production Cost-Driven Market
  • Return of Long-Term Contracting?

2. Uranium Conversion
Introduction to Sector
Market Overview
Price Movements and Market Activity

  • Spot Price Movements
  • Spot Market Activity
  • Long-Term Price Movement
  • Long-Term Market Activity

Recent Developments

  • Metropolis Shutdown and Other Supply Responses
  • China’s Continued Domestic Capacity Expansion
  • Clearing of Inventory Overhang
  • Shift of U.S. Government Uranium Inventory Policy
  • Limited Long-Term Contracting Activity
  • Narrowing the Spot/Long-Term Price Differential
  • Reduction in Regional Pricing Differentials

Key Players

  • Cameco Corporation
  • Honeywell/ConverDyn
  • Orano
  • TVEL/TENEX
  • China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC)
  • Indústrias Nucleares do Brasil (INB)

Market Shares
Supply and Demand

  • Regional Disparities

Pricing and Profit Margins

  • Price Forecast
  • Profit Margins

Total Market Size

  • Regional Market Sizes

Future Market Trends

  • Uncertainty About Future Conversion Capacity
  • Persistent Tightness of Supply/Demand Fundamentals
  • Changing Role of Secondary Supplies
  • Continued Influence of Enrichers in the Conversion Market
  • Long-Term Price to Remain Tied to Production Costs
  • Policy and Trade Issues to Continue to Impact the Market
  • Conversion to Remain the Weakest Link

3. Uranium Enrichment
Introduction to Sector
Market Overview
Price Movements and Market Activity

  • Spot Activity and Price Movements
  • Long-Term Activity and Price Movements

Recent Developments

  • Limited Market Activity
  • Enrichment Prices Decline to Historic Lows
  • Persistent Overcapacity and Gradual Supply Response
  • Cancellation of New Enrichment Projects
  • Changes in Utility Procurement Preferences
  • Enrichers as Uranium "Producers"
  • Trade and Policy Issues: Key Market Uncertainties

Key Players
Orano
TVEL/TENEX
URENCO
China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC)
Centrus Energy
Global Laser Enrichment (GLE)
Others

Market Shares

Supply and Demand

Pricing and Profit Margins

  • Price Forecast
  • Profit Margins

Total Market Size

  • Regional Market Sizes

Future Market Trends

  • Continued Optimization of Capacity to Address Supply Excess
  • China to Ramp Up in Line with Domestic Requirements
  • Anticipation of SWU Prices Bottoming Out and Gradual Recovery
  • Return of Utilities to the Market
  • Need for Future Investment to Maintain Enrichment Capacity
  • Continued, but Diminishing Role of Secondary Supplies

4. Nuclear Fuel Fabrication
Introduction to Sector

  • Fuel Manufacturing Process
  • Fuel Assembly Designs

Market Overview
Recent Developments

  • AREVA NP Becomes Framatome
  • Westinghouse’s Change in Ownership and Operational Issues
  • TVEL’s Entry into the PWR Reload Market
  • KAP-CGN Fuel Fabrication Partnership
  • U.S. Takes the Lead in Accident Tolerant Fuel Development
  • Fuel Fabrication Prices Reverse Growth Trend
  • Policy Issues Become a Factor for Fuel Fabricators

Key Players

  • Framatome
  • Global Nuclear Fuel (GNF)
  • Westinghouse Electric Company
  • TVEL Fuel Company
  • KEPCO Nuclear Fuel (KNF)
  • Regional Suppliers

Market Shares

  • Geographic Market Segments
  • Technical Market Segments
  • Global Market Shares
  • Regional Market Shares

Supply and Demand
Pricing and Profit Margins

  • Price Forecast
  • Profit Margins

Total Market Size

  • Regional Market Sizes

Future Market Trends

  • Continued Market Oversupply in Open Markets
  • Expected Rightsizing of Mega-Vendors
  • Demand Growth in Self-Sufficient/Closed Fabrication Markets
  • Japanese Fabrication Industry Consolidation
  • Emerging International Suppliers: KNF, TVEL, and CNNC
  • Accident Tolerant and Advanced Fuel Designs

MOX Fuel Fabrication

  • Key Players
  • MOX Fabrication Market Size and Trends
  • MOX Pricing and Profit Margins

PHWR Fuel Fabrication

  • PHWR Fuel Fabrication Key Players
  • PHWR Fuel Fabrication Market Size and Trends

Other Non-LWR Fuel Fabrication

  • Gas-Cooled Reactor Fuel Fabrication
  • RBMK Fuel Fabrication

Part III - Nuclear Reactor Market Overview

5. New Reactor Construction
Introduction to Sector
Market Overview

  • Established Nuclear Power Countries
  • China: The Nuclear Growth Giant
  • New Nuclear Power Countries

Recent Developments
NSSS Key Players

  • EDF/Framatome
  • Rosatom
  • China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN)
  • China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC)
  • State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC)
  • Toshiba Corporation
  • Westinghouse Electric Company
  • GE-Hitachi (GEH)/Hitachi-GE (HGE)
  • Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO)
  • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI)
  • SNC-Lavalin (formerly AECL)
  • Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd. (NPCIL)

NSSS Market Shares
Reactor Supply Chain Key Players

  • Heavy Forging Suppliers
  • Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) Companies

Reactor Supply Chain Market Shares
Supply and Demand

  • New Reactor Construction Forecasts
  • Current New Reactor Projects

Prices and Profit Margins

  • New Reactor Project Costs
  • Profit Margins

Total Market Size
Future Market Trends

  • Emerging vs. Established Markets
  • China: A Growing Superpower
  • Vendors Relying on Home Government Support

6. Reactor Operations and Services
Introduction to Sector
Market Overview

  • The World’s Nuclear Utilities
  • Recent Reactor Operating Trends

Recent Developments

  • Planned and Unplanned Maintenance Outages
  • Recent O&M Contracts

Key Players

  • Technical Support Organizations

Market Shares
Supply and Demand

  • Critical Spare Parts Inventories

Prices and Profit Margins

  • Operating Costs
  • Lifecycle Costs
  • Profit Margins

Total Market Size

  • Global Reactor Services Market Size Forecasts
  • Regional Reactor Services Market Size Forecasts
  • Breakdown of Reactor Services Market by Cost Component

Future Market Trends

  • Shrinking Markets
  • Negative Economic Pressures and Uncertain Reactor Lifetimes
  • Supplier Consolidation and Strategic Partnerships
  • Utility Consolidation and Teaming Arrangements

7. Reactor Capital Upgrades
Introduction to Sector
Market Overview
Lifetime Extensions
Power Uprates
Other Types of Major Upgrades
Life After Sixty: Long-Term Operation
Recent Developments

  • Latest New Capital Upgrade Projects

Key Players

  • Framatome
  • SNC-Lavalin
  • GE-Hitachi
  • Toshiba
  • KEPCO
  • MHI
  • Rosatom
  • Westinghouse
  • BWXT
  • Doosan
  • ENSA
  • Ansaldo Nucleare
  • AECON
  • AECOM
  • Bechtel

Market Shares
Supply and Demand

  • Demand for Major Component Replacements

Prices and Profit Margins

  • Profit Margins

Total Market Size
Future Market Trends

  • Uncertain Policies on Lifetime Extensions
  • Difficult Power Markets
  • Aging Plants Need More Capital Upgrades
  • Still Easier to Uprate than Build a New Plant
  • New Technologies and Methods Can Reduce Downtime and Costs
  • New Technologies Can Reduce the Need for Capital Upgrades
  • Increased Competition Among Suppliers

8. Advanced and Small Modular Reactors
Introduction to Sector

  • Definition of an SMR
  • Characteristics of an SMR
  • Reasons for Heightened Interest in SMRs and ARs

Market Overview

  • United States
  • Russia
  • South Korea
  • China
  • Japan
  • Canada
  • United Kingdom

Recent Developments
Key Players

  • China General Nuclear (China)
  • CNNC (China)
  • SNPTC (China)
  • INET/Huaneng Group (China)
  • NuScale Power (United States)
  • Holtec (United States)
  • GE-Hitachi (U.S./Japan)
  • Advanced Reactors Concepts (United States)
  • General Atomics (United States)
  • Terrapower (United States)
  • X-energy (United States)
  • HolosGen (United States)
  • OKBM Afrikantov (Russia)
  • NIKIET (Russia)
  • CNEA (Argentina)
  • KAERI (South Korea)
  • Terrestrial Energy (Canada)
  • U-Battery Developments Ltd (UK/Netherlands)
  • Moltex Energy (United Kingdom)

Market Shares
Supply and Demand
Prices and Profit Margins
Total Market Size
Future Market Trends

  • Overcoming the "Chicken and Egg" Challenges
  • Government Financial Support Remains Key
  • Demonstration Projects and Commercialization Efforts
  • Uncertainty about Construction Timelines
  • Industry Synergies and Alliances
  • SMR/ARs in a World with Increasing Renewables

Part IV - Back-End Market Overview

9. Spent Fuel Treatment, Storage and Disposal
Introduction to Sector
Market Overview
Spent Fuel Storage Overview
Spent Fuel Recent Developments
Spent Fuel Storage Key Players

  • Doosan Heavy Industries
  • EnergySolutions
  • Equipos Nucleares S.A. (ENSA)
  • Gesellschaft fur Nuklear Service (GNS)
  • Holtec International
  • Interim Storage Partners (ISP)
  • NAC International
  • Orano

Spent Fuel Storage Market Analysis Results
Spent Fuel Storage Future Market Trends
Reprocessing Overview
Reprocessing Recent Developments
Reprocessing Key Players

  • China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC)
  • Indian Reprocessors
  • Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEC)
  • Japan Nuclear Fuels Ltd (JNFL)
  • Orano
  • Rosatom
  • Sellafield Ltd

Reprocessing Market Analysis Results
Reprocessing Future Market Trends
Geological Disposal Overview
Geological Disposal Recent Developments
Geological Disposal Key Players

  • ANDRA
  • Arius
  • CNNC
  • Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA)
  • Korea Radioactive Waste Agency (KORAD)
  • National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste (NAGRA)
  • Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO)
  • Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NUMO)
  • Posiva Oy
  • Radioactive Waste Management (RWM)
  • Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB)
  • U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)

Summary
Geological Disposal Market Analysis Results
Geological Disposal Future Market Trends
Spent Fuel Market Prices and Profit Margins

10. Radioactive Waste Management and Disposal
Introduction to Sector
Analysis Uncertainties
Market Overview
Recent Developments
Key Players

  • ANDRA
  • Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL)
  • Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL)
  • Babcock International Group PLC
  • Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials
  • Cavendish Nuclear
  • Central Organization for Radioactive Waste (COVRA)
  • Cyclife
  • EnergySolutions
  • ENRESA
  • IHI Corporation
  • Jacobs/CH2M
  • Japan Nuclear Fuel Limited (JNFL)
  • Korea Radioactive Waste Agency (KORAD)
  • LLW Repository Ltd (LLWR)
  • NAGRA
  • NuVision Engineering Inc
  • RosRAO
  • SE RAW (Bulgaria)
  • Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB)
  • Studsvik
  • Veolia
  • Waste Control Specialists, LLC (WCS)

Market Analysis Results
Analysis Methodology
Pricing and Profit Margins
Future Market Trends

11. Decontamination and Decommissioning
Introduction to Sector
Market Overview

  • Decommissioning Milestones

Recent Developments

  • U.S. Decommissioning Business Models

Key Players

  • AECOM
  • Accelerated Decommissioning Partners (ADP)
  • BWX Technologies (BWXT)
  • Bechtel
  • Cabrera Services
  • Cavendish Nuclear
  • Costain
  • Cyclife
  • Doosan Power Systems
  • Enercon
  • EnergySolutions
  • Fluor
  • Holtec International
  • Jacobs Engineering Group/CH2M
  • Javys
  • Manafort Brothers Incorporated
  • NorthStar
  • Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA)
  • NUKEM Technologies Engineering Services
  • Sellafield Ltd
  • SNC-Lavalin
  • Sogin S.p.A
  • Stoller Newport News Nuclear (SN3)
  • Studsvik
  • Veolia
  • Westinghouse Electric Company
  • Wood Group

Market Analysis Results
Analysis Methodology
Prices and Profit Margins
Future Market Trends

Part V - Summary and Conclusions
Nuclear Industry Interrelationships
Nuclear Market Size Analysis and Forecasts

  • Future Market Size Outlook to 2035
  • Market Size Forecast Details
  • Shifts in Market Size Forecasts Since 2011

Final Thoughts
Glossary
Appendix A - Nuclear Power Regions
Appendix B - Reactor Capacities Anticipated by 2035 by Country
Appendix C - Worldwide Reactors Under or Near Construction
Appendix D - Nuclear Reactor Supply Chain Companies
Appendix E - Nuclear Industry Alliances and Partnerships

List of Figures
Figure 1. Worldwide Commercial Reactors by Startup Year
Figure 2. Atomic Energy Commission Projection of U.S. Nuclear Growth, 1974
Figure 3. World Primary Energy Demand by Fuel and Scenario (Mtoe)
Figure 4. Electricity Demand Growth by End-Use and Generation by Source in the NPS
Figure 5. Installed Power Capacity by Source in the NPS
Figure 6. Global Power Generation Capacity Additions and Retirements in the NPS
Figure 7. World Electricity Generation by Source and Scenario (TWh)
Figure 8. Nuclear Capacity to 2040 without Life Extensions or New Builds
Figure 9. Boiling Water Reactor Graphical Depiction
Figure 10. Pressurized Water Reactor Graphical Depiction
Figure 11. Evolution of Nuclear Reactor Generations
Figure 12. Nuclear Generating Capacity Percentages by Region, 2015, 2020, 2030 & 2035
Figure 13. World Detailed Reactor & Nuclear Capacity Base Case Forecast, 2008-2035
Figure 14. Base, High, and Low Case Nuclear Capacity Forecasts, 2008-2035
Figure 15. Share of Net Electricity Generation, 2010-2040 (TWh)
Figure 16. Shares of Total Power Generation, 1970-2040
Figure 17. The Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Figure 18. Global Nuclear Fuel Market Forecast, 2018-2035
Figure 19. Open Pit Uranium Mine
Figure 20. Underground Uranium Mine
Figure 21. In-Situ Recovery Uranium Mine
Figure 22. Global Distribution of Identified Uranium Resources (<US$130/kgU)
Figure 23. Uranium Production by Country in 2017
Figure 24. Uranium Spot Price, 1987-2018
Figure 25. Uranium Production by Company in 2017
Figure 26. Primary and Secondary Supplies of Uranium in 2017
Figure 27. World Uranium Market Demand vs. Mid-Case Supply, 2008-2035
Figure 28. Existing and New World Uranium Production, 1998-2035
Figure 29. Uranium Spot Price Forecast, 1987-2035
Figure 30. Uranium Market Size Forecast, 2008-2035
Figure 31. Uranium Regional Market Size Forecast, 2008-2035
Figure 32. UF6 Crystals
Figure 33. UF6 Conversion Processes: Dry versus Wet
Figure 34. Historical Spot Conversion Prices and Significant Events, 1990-2018
Figure 35. Uranium Conversion Market Shares (Primary Only)
Figure 36. Uranium Conversion Market Shares (Including Secondary)
Figure 37. Base World Conversion Supply vs. Demand, 2008-2035
Figure 38. Regional Conversion Capacities vs. Demand in 2017
Figure 39. Conversion Spot Price Forecast, 1987-2035
Figure 40. Conversion Market Size Forecast, 2008-2035
Figure 41. Conversion Regional Market Size Forecast, 2008-2035
Figure 42. Gas Centrifuges used for Uranium Enrichment
Figure 43. Uranium Enrichment Market Shares (Primary Only)
Figure 44. Uranium Enrichment Market Shares (Including Secondary)
Figure 45. Base Case Enrichment Supply vs. Demand, 2008-2035
Figure 46. SWU Price Forecast, 1987-2035
Figure 47. Enrichment Market Size Forecast, 2008-2035
Figure 48. Enrichment Regional Market Size Forecast, 2008-2035
Figure 49. The Fuel Fabrication Process
Figure 50. Typical BWR (left) and PWR (right) Fuel Assemblies
Figure 51. Global Breakdown of Fuel Fabrication Production Capacities
Figure 52. Regional Breakdowns of Fuel Fabrication Production Capacities
Figure 53. LWR Fuel Fabrication Supply vs. Demand Forecast, 2008-2035
Figure 54. Total LWR Nuclear Fuel Price Breakdown
Figure 55. BWR and PWR Fabrication Price Forecast for U.S., 2008-2035
Figure 56. LWR Fuel Fabrication Market Size Forecast, 2008-2035
Figure 57. LWR Fabrication Regional Market Size Forecast, 2008-2035
Figure 58. Nuclear Reactor Market Summary, 2008-2035
Figure 59. New Reactor Main Players
Figure 60. JSC ASE EC’s Portfolio as of End of 2017
Figure 61. JSC ASE EC’s International Footprint
Figure 62. Percentages of Current Operating Reactor Types
Figure 63. Percentages of New Reactor Types, 2018-2030
Figure 64. Percentages of New Reactor Vendors, 2018-2030
Figure 65. New Reactor Startups and Total MWe Added, 2018-2030
Figure 66. Overnight Costs of Recent Generation III Reactors
Figure 67. Akkuyu NPP Cost Breakdown
Figure 68. Cost Index Variation by EPC Contract Type
Figure 69. Global New Reactor Market Estimates, 2008-2035
Figure 70. Nuclear Power Capacity Growth by Market Sectors, 2008-2035
Figure 71. U.S. Nuclear Reactor Operating Costs, 2006-2017
Figure 72. U.S. Nuclear Reactor Capacity Factor Averages, 1971-2017
Figure 73. U.S. Nuclear Reactor Refueling Outage Duration Averages (Days), 1990-2016
Figure 74. Technical Support Organizations and their Interfaces
Figure 75. Total Value of Onsite Materials (in US$)
Figure 76. U.S. Average Nuclear Generating Costs in 2017 (US$/MWh)
Figure 77. U.S. Nuclear Plant Costs by Type, 2002-2017 (US$/MWh)
Figure 78. U.S. Average Nuclear Generating Costs by Size & Site in 2017 (US$/MWh)
Figure 79. Estimated Levelized Costs of New Electricity Generation Technologies
Figure 80. Base and High Case Global Reactor Operating Costs, 2008-2035
Figure 81. Reactor Operating Costs by Region, 2008-2035
Figure 82. Global Reactor Operating Costs by Type, 2008-2035
Figure 83. LTO Projects at Olkiluoto Units 1 & 2
Figure 84. Total LTO Investments at Doel Units 1 & 2
Figure 85. Breakdown of LTO Costs at Doel Units 1 & 2
Figure 86. Loss of Current Nuclear Capacity Under Various Average Lifetimes
Figure 87. U.S. Reactors with Replacement Steam Generators, 1973-2005
Figure 88. Global Operating Reactor Capital Expenditures, 2008-2035
Figure 89. Projected Evolution of EU’s Existing Reactor Fleet (GWe)
Figure 90. SMR/AR Market Size Forecast, 2008-2035
Figure 91. Back-End Nuclear Fuel Cycle Market Summary, 2015-2035
Figure 92. Spent Fuel in Storage and Reprocessed through 2018 and 2035 (in MTU)
Figure 93. Spent Fuel in Wet Storage
Figure 94. Connecticut Yankee Dry Storage Facility
Figure 95. Zwilag - Centralized Interim Storage Facility
Figure 96. Chinshan ISFSI
Figure 97. Artist Rendering of WCS CISF
Figure 98. Pictorial View of Proposed HI-STORE CIS Facility Under NRC Review
Figure 99. Holtec Dry Storage System at Callaway NPP
Figure 100. NUHOMS HSM Matrix
Figure 101. Overall Dry Cask Storage Market Size, 2015-2035
Figure 102. Worldwide Reprocessing Throughput, 2015-2035
Figure 103. Worldwide Reprocessing Market Size, 2015-2035
Figure 104. Graphical Depiction of Deep Geological Repository
Figure 105. Cigéo Project 3D Block Diagram
Figure 106. Timeline of Japan’s Geological Disposal Program
Figure 107. Posiva’s Repository Schedule
Figure 108. KBS-3 Disposal Method in Sweden
Figure 109. Estimated Distribution of Spent Fuel Discharged Through 2035
Figure 110. Estimated Distribution of Disposal Costs for Spent Fuel & HLW Through 2035
Figure 111. Basic Stages of Radioactive Waste Management
Figure 112. WCS Compact Waste Facility
Figure 113. Estimated Market Size of Radioactive Waste Management, 2015-2035
Figure 114. Total Costs of Radioactive Waste Management and Disposal, 2015-2035
Figure 115. Decontamination and Decommissioning Project Flow
Figure 116. Connecticut Yankee Site Before and After Decommissioning
Figure 117. Map of 17 NDA Sites
Figure 118. Total D&D Market Sizes by Country, 2015-2035
Figure 119. Reactor D&D Market Sizes by Country, 2015-2035
Figure 120. Fuel Cycle Facility D&D Market Sizes by Country, 2015-2035
Figure 121. Decommissioning Annual Costs by Project Type, 2015-2035
Figure 122. Decommissioning Annual Costs by Country, 2015-2035
Figure 123. Nuclear Industry Sector Interrelationships
Figure 124. Global Nuclear Market Size Overview in 2018
Figure 125. Global Nuclear Market Size Percentages, 2018-2035
Figure 126. Global Nuclear Market Size Details, 2018-2035
Figure 127. Nuclear Power in CRIS vs. Rest of World, 2008-2035
Figure 128. Map of Nuclear Regions

List of Tables
Table 1. Generation and Capacity under the NPS by 2040
Table 2. World Nuclear Power Status in December 2018
Table 3. World Nuclear Power Status by Region in December 2018
Table 4. Top Five "Reasons for Nuclear Power"
Table 5. Top Five Challenges to Nuclear Power
Table 6. Current Global Reactor Technology Breakdown
Table 7. Current Leading Large Reactor Designs
Table 8. Sampling of Current Small Modular Reactor Designs
Table 9. Global Nuclear Power 2015 vs. 2025, 2030, and 2035
Table 10. World Reactor & Nuclear Capacity Forecast, 2017-2030
Table 11. Base, High, and Low Case Nuclear Reactor and Capacity Forecasts, 2018-2035
Table 12. Global Nuclear Fuel Market Forecast, 2018-2035
Table 13. World Uranium Supply by Producer in 2017
Table 14. Conversion Supply by Source, 2014-2017
Table 15. Enrichment Supply by Source, 2014-2017
Table 16. Worldwide LWR Fuel Fabrication Capacity in 2018
Table 17. Current Worldwide PHWR Fuel Fabrication Capacity
Table 18. Reactors Under Construction by Country
Table 19. Reactor Vendors for Operating Reactors
Table 20. New Reactor Vendors, 2018-2030
Table 21. Key Nuclear Reactor Supply Companies
Table 22. Main Nuclear-Grade Heavy Forging Suppliers
Table 23. Key Nuclear EPC and Construction Companies
Table 24. Key Component Supply Sources for Selected Chinese Reactors
Table 25. Suppliers of Selected Components of AP1000 Projects in China
Table 26. New Reactor Startups by Year, 2018-2030
Table 27. Reactor Projects Under Construction by Reactor Design
Table 28. Planned New Reactor Projects
Table 29. Summary of Reactor Overnight Costs
Table 30. New Reactor Cost Breakdowns
Table 31. Akkuyu NPP Cost Breakdown
Table 32. Cost Estimate Data for Hinkley Point C in UK
Table 33. Average Reactor Operating Cost Profile
Table 34. Global Nuclear Power Utilities
Table 35. Full Outage Statistics During 2016
Table 36. Nuclear Plant O&M Services Suppliers
Table 37. List of High Probability Strategic Spares
Table 38. Recent Reactor Capital Upgrade Projects
Table 39. Examples of Framatome’s Reactor Capital Upgrade Projects
Table 40. Key Players’ Capabilities in the Capital Upgrades Sector
Table 41. Steam Generator Replacements since 2000
Table 42. RPVH Replacements since 2000
Table 43. Countries Having Expressed Interest in SMRs
Table 44. Companies Having Expressed Interest in SMRs
Table 45. Rough Construction Cost Estimates for Selected SMR/ARs
Table 46. SMR/AR Expenditures by Governments
Table 47. SMR/AR Expenditures by Companies
Table 48. Annual Spent Fuel Discharges, 2015-2035
Table 49. Current World Reprocessing Capacity
Table 50. Spent Fuel Final Repository Status by Country
Table 51. Forward Decommissioning Option Selections by Country
Table 52. Unit Decommissioning Costs
Table 53. Decommissioning Profile for DECON
Table 54. Decommissioning Profile for SAFSTOR
Table 55. Global Nuclear Market Size Growth vs. 2018
Table 56. Global Nuclear Market Sector Sizes, 2018-2035
Table 57. Global Nuclear Market Size Growth Forecasts for 2020
Table 58. Global Nuclear Market Size Growth Forecasts for 2030
Table 59. Reactor Units & Nuclear Capacities Anticipated by Country by 2035
Table 60. Worldwide Near-Term New Reactors, 2018-2025
Table 61. Nuclear Power Plant Equipment Suppliers List
Table 62. Nuclear Industry Alliances & Partnerships

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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • AECOM
  • Cabrera Services
  • Enercon
  • Honeywell/ConverDyn
  • NAGRA
  • RosRAO
  • MORE

Identifying Major Market Trends

The Nuclear Industry Value Chain (NIVC) report includes detailed data and analysis of every aspect of the global nuclear markets with balanced perspectives on commercial and technical issues affecting all parts of the value chain.

Although the nuclear industry continues to be impacted by the fallout from the Fukushima accident in March 2011, as well as other shifts in the broader energy markets, such as the shale gas boom in the U.S. and a transition to renewables in Europe, there are still many reasons for a continued expansion of global nuclear power, especially in countries like China and India. The key arguments for nuclear expansion include rapid electricity demand growth, increased concerns over greenhouse gas emissions, and a desire by nations to diversify their energy portfolios in the name of energy security. Now is the time to assess the prospects and future course of each of the market sectors in this evolving, worldwide industry. Each market sector has its own unique characteristics, and the NIVC report provides the reader with all the necessary tools to understand the opportunities and potential pitfalls within each sector.

Enhancements For This New 2018 Edition

  • Updated forecasts for global nuclear power now extended through 2035
  • Improvements to price and market size forecast modelling
  • Analysis of how recent events are impacting the front-end fuel markets (e.g., reduced demand after Fukushima, increased enricher underfeeding, mergers and acquisitions among suppliers, closures of mines and plants, high inventory levels, shifting contracting approaches by utilities, etc.)
  • Competitive analysis of each NSSS vendor and their prospects for securing new reactor project contracts
  • Discussion of the potential implications of extending reactor lifetimes beyond 60 years (i.e., ""Life After 60"") and the future capital spending profile for the existing reactor fleet
  • Brand new chapter focused entirely on the rapidly developing Advanced and Small Modular Reactor (SMR) marketplace
  • Analysis of the how the decommissioning market has dramatically increased by numerous reactor closures in the post-Fukushima era.

What is Included in this Report?

2018’s Nuclear Industry Value Chain report includes updated research and analysis of all sectors in the nuclear industry, including the front-end fuel markets, the broader reactor sector, as well as the back-end of the fuel cycle.

There is no publicly distributed report currently available that provides such comprehensive coverage of the growing global nuclear marketplace. Separate chapters in the NIVC report include:

  • Uranium
  • Conversion
  • Enrichment
  • Fuel fabrication
  • New reactor construction
  • Reactor operations & services
  • Reactor capital upgrades
  • Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
  • Used fuel treatment, storage & disposal
  • Radioactive waste management & disposal
  • Decontamination & decommissioning

Each sector is analyzed individually with separate discussions on:

  • Market overview
  • Latest developments
  • Key players
  • Market shares
  • Alliances & partnerships
  • Supply & demand
  • Pricing & profit margins
  • Total market size
  • Future market trends
  • Forecasts through 2035

Why Purchase this Report?

  • The NIVC provides detailed data and information along with practical analysis for anyone considering entry or expansion in this dynamic nuclear marketplace.
  • The goal of the NIVC report is to examine the current status and future prospects (through 2035) for each sector comprising the entire ""nuclear industry value chain,"" to support future decisions by investors, potential new entrants, and current participants in the global nuclear markets.
  • Whatever your position in the market, it is in your interest to seriously explore the future of the nuclear industry, and the broader trends that will impact it going forward. Each market sector has its own unique characteristics, and the NIVC gives you all the tools to start the process of understanding the opportunities and potential pitfalls within each area of the global nuclear marketplace.
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  • Accelerated Decommissioning Partners (ADP)
  • Advanced Reactors Concepts (United States)
  • AECOM
  • AECON
  • ANDRA
  • Ansaldo Nucleare
  • Arius
  • ARMZ
  • Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL)
  • Babcock International Group PLC
  • Bechtel
  • BHP Billiton
  • BWX Technologies (BWXT)
  • BWXT
  • Cabrera Services
  • Cameco Corporation
  • Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL)
  • Cavendish Nuclear
  • Central Organization for Radioactive Waste (COVRA)
  • Centrus Energy
  • China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN)
  • China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC)
  • CNEA (Argentina)
  • CNNC
  • Costain
  • Cyclife
  • Doosan Power Systems
  • EDF/Framatome
  • Enercon
  • EnergySolutions
  • ENRESA
  • ENSA
  • Equipos Nucleares S.A. (ENSA)
  • Fluor
  • Framatome
  • GE-Hitachi
  • General Atomics (United States)
  • Gesellschaft fur Nuklear Service (GNS)
  • Global Laser Enrichment (GLE)
  • Global Nuclear Fuel (GNF)
  • HolosGen (United States)
  • Holtec International
  • Honeywell/ConverDyn
  • IHI Corporation
  • Indian Reprocessors
  • Indústrias Nucleares do Brasil (INB)
  • INET/Huaneng Group (China)
  • Interim Storage Partners (ISP)
  • Jacobs Engineering Group/CH2M
  • Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA)
  • Japan Nuclear Fuels Ltd (JNFL)
  • Javys
  • KAERI (South Korea)
  • Kazatomprom
  • KEPCO Nuclear Fuel (KNF)
  • Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO)
  • Korea Radioactive Waste Agency (KORAD)
  • LLW Repository Ltd (LLWR)
  • Manafort Brothers Incorporated
  • MHI
  • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI)
  • Moltex Energy (United Kingdom)
  • NAC International
  • NAGRA
  • NIKIET (Russia)
  • NorthStar
  • Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA)
  • Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd. (NPCIL)
  • Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO)
  • NUKEM Technologies Engineering Services
  • NuScale Power (United States)
  • NuVision Engineering Inc
  • OKBM Afrikantov (Russia)
  • Orano
  • Paladin Energy Ltd
  • Posiva Oy
  • Radioactive Waste Management (RWM)
  • Rio Tinto Uranium
  • Rosatom
  • RosRAO
  • SE RAW (Bulgaria)
  • Sellafield Ltd
  • SNC-Lavalin (formerly AECL)
  • SNPTC (China)
  • Sogin S.p.A
  • State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC)
  • Stoller Newport News Nuclear (SN3)
  • Studsvik
  • Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB)
  • Terrapower (United States)
  • Terrestrial Energy (Canada)
  • Toshiba Corporation
  • TVEL Fuel Company
  • TVEL/TENEX
  • U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
  • U-Battery Developments Ltd (UK/Netherlands)
  • Uranium One
  • URENCO
  • Veolia
  • Waste Control Specialists, LLC (WCS)
  • Westinghouse Electric Company
  • Wood Group
  • X-energy (United States)
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