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Malaria: Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2027

  • ID: 4755679
  • Report
  • November 2018
  • Region: Global
  • 164 pages
  • GlobalData
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Cipla
  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
  • Guilin Pharmaceuticals
  • Mepha
  • Novartis
  • Sanaria
  • MORE
Malaria: Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2027

Summary

Malaria is a potentially life-threatening disease caused by Plasmodium parasites, which are transmitted to humans through the bites of infected female Anopheles spp mosquitoes. For over 2,500 years, fevers, a hallmark symptom of malaria, were attributed to miasmas (foul stenches or vapors) rising from nearby swamps.

The malaria market (including the treatment of confirmed incident cases only, as well as prophylaxis in select at-risk populations) is estimated to experience moderate growth across the 6M (Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, India, Indonesia) during the forecast period.

It is estimated that the drug sales across these six countries to be $57.3M in 2017. Over the 10-year forecast period, the malaria market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.4%, surpassing $500M by 2027. This growth would be primarily driven by a number of interrelated factors, such as the projected uptake of the malaria vaccines, the uptake of current late-stage pipeline malarial therapeutics, and the continued use of currently available agents.

Pipeline therapeutics and prophylactics projected to launch during the forecast period are estimated to have a moderately higher cost compared to currently available products, but will see use due to the fact that they are able to partially address unmet needs. The projected increase in treated malaria cases will also contribute to market growth from 2017-2027.

The report "Malaria: Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2027", provides an opportunity and forecast assessment on the six pharmaceutical markets (6M) representing areas with the largest disease burden for malaria. The countries specifically included in this report are the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ghana, India, Indonesia, Kenya, and Nigeria. The report covers the market forecast for marketed and late-stage malaria products.

Key Questions Answered
  • How will the malaria market landscape in the 6M (DRC, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, India, Indonesia) change from 2017-2027?
  • What are the most promising late-stage pipeline products for malaria?
  • How do the clinical and commercial attributes of late-stage pipeline products compare with one another and against existing treatment and prevention options?
  • What are the remaining unmet needs in the malaria space?
  • What drivers and barriers will affect malaria product sales in the 6M?
Scope
  • Overview of malaria, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and current management strategies.
  • Topline malaria market revenue from 2017-2027. Annual cost of therapy (ACOT) and major pipeline product sales in this forecast period are included.
  • Key topics covered include current treatment and prophylactic options, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting malaria product sales in the 6M.
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, synopses of innovative early-stage projects, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline products.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global malaria space. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to -
  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global malaria market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the malaria market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments, and strategic partnerships.
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
2 of 3

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Cipla
  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
  • Guilin Pharmaceuticals
  • Mepha
  • Novartis
  • Sanaria
  • MORE
1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures

2 Malaria: Executive Summary
2.1 Projects Moderate Growth for the Malaria Market from 2017 to 2027
2.2 Biopharmaceutical Industry Effectively Leveraging Public-Private Partnerships to Advance Novel Malaria Products
2.3 Significant Unmet Needs Will Be Partially Met During the Forecast Period
2.4 Opportunities Will Exist for New Malaria Therapeutics and Prophylactics that Fulfill Unmet Needs
2.5 Diverse Pipeline Therapies and First Generation Malaria Vaccines Positioned to Begin Addressing Unmet Needs
2.6 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction
3.1 Catalyst
3.2 Related Reports
3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview
4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
4.1.1 Etiology
4.1.2 Pathophysiology
4.1.3 Uncomplicated Malaria
4.1.4 Severe Malaria
4.2 Quality of Life

5 Epidemiology
5.1 Disease Background
5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
5.3 Global and Historical Trends
5.3.1 DRC
5.3.2 Ghana
5.3.3 Kenya
5.3.4 Nigeria
5.3.5 India
5.3.6 Indonesia
5.4 Forecast Methodology
5.4.1 Sources
5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Malaria (20172027)
5.5.1 Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria
5.5.2 Age-Specific Incident Cases of Malaria
5.5.3 Sex-Specific Incident Cases of Malaria
5.5.4 Confirmed Deaths from Malaria
5.5.5 Confirmed Incident Cases by Plasmodium Species
5.5.6 P. falciparum Cases with K13 Propeller Mutations
5.5.7 Seroprevalence of Plasmodium Infection in Pregnant Women
5.6 Discussion
5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis
5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis

6 Current Treatment and Prevention Options
6.1 Overview
6.2 Diagnosis and Treatment
6.2.1 Diagnosis
6.2.2 Treatment Guidelines and Leading Prescribed Drugs
6.3 Non-Drug Preventative Interventions
6.4 Drug Therapy Procurement

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
7.1 Overview
7.2 Single-Dose Cure to Improve Compliance
7.3 Improved Treatment Options for P. vivax and P. ovale Infections
7.4 Drugs with Novel Mechanisms of Action to Combat Artemisinin Resistance
7.5 Expanded Options for Difficult-to-Treat Patient Populations
7.6 Options to Block Transmission

8 R&D Strategies
8.1 Overview
8.1.1 Next Generation Therapeutics
8.2 Clinical Trial Design
8.2.1 Controlled Human Malaria Infection (CHMI) Trial Design
8.2.2 Desired Endpoints and Entry Criteria
8.2.3 Combination Therapy Studies

9 Pipeline Assessment
9.1 Overview
9.2 Other Therapeutics and Prophylactics in Development
9.2.1 Therapeutics
9.2.2 Whole Organism Vaccines
9.2.3 Protein-Targeted Vaccines

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis
10.1 Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Products
10.1.1 Therapeutic Products
10.1.2 Prophylactic Products
10.2 Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Malaria Products
10.2.1 Therapeutic Products
10.2.2 Prophylactic Products
10.3 Competitive Assessment
10.3.1 Therapeutic Products
10.3.2 Prophylactic Products
10.4 Top-Line 10-Year Forecast

11 Appendix
11.1 Bibliography
11.2 Abbreviations
11.3 Methodology
11.3.1 Forecasting Methodology
11.3.2 Diagnosed Patients
11.3.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients
11.3.4 Drugs and Vaccines Included in Each Prophylactic and Therapeutic Class
11.3.5 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates
11.3.6 General Pricing Assumptions
11.3.7 Individual Drug Assumptions
11.3.8 Individual Vaccine Assumptions
11.3.9 Pricing of Pipeline Agents
11.4 Primary Research - KOLs Interviewed for This Report
11.5 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey
11.6 About the Authors
11.6.1 Analyst
11.6.2 Therapy Area Director
11.6.3 Epidemiologist
11.6.4 Managing Epidemiologist
11.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology
11.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy
11.7 About
11.8 Contact Us
11.9 Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: Malaria: Key Metrics in the 6M
Table 2: Symptoms Associated with Uncomplicated Malaria
Table 3: Clinical and Laboratory Features for P. falciparum Severe Malaria.
Table 4: Estimated Gain in Life Expectancy in Different WHO Regions Due to Reduction in Malaria Mortality
Table 5: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Malaria
Table 6: 6M, Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria, Men and Women, All Ages, Select Years, 2017-2027
Table 7: 6M, Confirmed Deaths from Malaria, Men and Women, All Ages, Select Years 2017-2027
Table 8: Treatment Guidelines for Uncomplicated Malaria
Table 9: Most Prescribed Drugs for Uncomplicated Malaria by ACT Brand in the 6M, 2017
Table 10: Malaria Treatment Guidelines for Special Risk Patients
Table 11: Clinical and Laboratory Features for P. falciparum Severe Malaria
Table 12: US PMI Fiscal Year 2017 ACT Procurement for 6M African Supported Countries
Table 13: Malaria R&D Desired Target Candidate Profiles for Single Exposure Radical Cure and Prophylaxis Approach
Table 14: MMV Supported Pipeline Therapeutics Active Against Artemisinin-Resistant P. falciparum and P. vivax
Table 15: Pipeline Therapeutics with Potential SERCaP Potential Active Against Artemisinin Resistant P. falciparum and P. vivax strains
Table 16: Late-stage Pipeline Products for Malaria, 2017
Table 17: Early-Stage Pipeline Therapeutics and Prophylactics in Development for Malaria, 2018
Table 18: Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Therapeutics - Malaria
Table 19: Clinical Benchmark of Key Prophylactics - Malaria
Table 20: Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Therapeutics - Malaria
Table 21: Commercial Benchmark of Key Prophylactics - Malaria
Table 22: Key Events Impacting Sales for Malaria, 2017-2027
Table 23: Malaria Market - Global Drivers and Barriers, 2017-2027
Table 24: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Malaria
Table 25: Key Historical and Projected Patent Expiry Dates for Malaria
Table 26: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

List of Figures
Figure 1: Global (6M) Sales Forecast by Country for Malaria in 2017 and 2027
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of Pipeline Therapeutics for Malaria
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of Pipeline Prophylactics for Malaria
Figure 4: Malaria Therapeutic Targets of Plasmodium Life Cycle
Figure 5: Stages of Malaria
Figure 6: 6M, Age-Standardized Confirmed Incidence of Malaria, Men, 2007-2027
Figure 7: 6M, Age-Standardized Confirmed Incidence of Malaria, Women, 2007-2027
Figure 8: Sources Used and Not Used for Calculation of Confirmed Incident Cases and Deaths
Figure 9: Sources Used and Not Used for Calculation of Cases by Plasmodium Species and K13 Mutations
Figure 10: Sources Used and Not Used for Calculation of Pregnant Women
Figure 11: Sources Used and Not Used for Calculation of Seroprevalence of Plasmodium Infection in Pregnant Women
Figure 12: 6M, Age-Specific Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria, Men and Women, 2017
Figure 13: 6M, Sex-Specific Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria, All Ages, 2017
Figure 14: 6M, Confirmed Incident Cases of Malaria by Plasmodium Species, Men and Women, All Ages, 2017
Figure 15: 6M, P. falciparum Cases with K13 Propeller Mutations, Men and Women, All Ages, 2017
Figure 16: 6M, Seroprevalence of Plasmodium Infection in Pregnant Women, 2017-2027
Figure 17: Illustration of Malaria Patient Treatment Journey
Figure 18: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Malaria
Figure 19: Overview of the Clinical-Stage Pipeline in Malaria
Figure 20: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that Expects to Be Licensed for Malaria in the 6M During the Forecast Period
Figure 21: Competitive Assessment of Key Pipeline Therapeutics Benchmarked Against the SOC, Coartem
Figure 22: Competitive Benchmark Assessment of Key Pipeline Prophylactics Against Marketed Prophylactics
Figure 23: Global (6M) Sales Forecast by Country for Malaria Therapeutics and Prophylactics in 2017 and 2027
Figure 24: Global Sales Forecast by Therapeutic and Prophylactic Product Class for Malaria in 2017 and 2027
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
  • Novartis
  • Sanofi
  • Takeda
  • Sanaria
  • Cipla
  • Sigma-Tau
  • Mepha
  • Guilin Pharmaceuticals
  • Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV)
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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