Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

  • ID: 4758603
  • Report
  • Region: Nigeria
  • 93 pages
  • GlobalData
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Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

Summary

The defense budget of Nigeria was US$1.6 billion in 2019 and registered a negative CAGR of 3.50% during the historical period. The country has been facing internal conflicts affecting its economic growth and stability. The emergence of Boko Haram has intensified the rebellion in northeast Nigeria and led to a state of emergency announcement by the president regarding the affected states. Recently in January 2019, a military base in remote north-east was attacked by Boko Haram, which killed at least 10 people and led to thousands fleeing the area. Similarly, in 2017, in a triple suicide attack, at least 30 people were killed and more than 80 others injured in Mandarari.

Efforts are being taken to bolster peacekeeping operations and counter oil smuggling and piracy. These measures are also expected to drive the country’s military expenditure over the forecast period. The country’s military expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 6.55% to reach US$2.2 billion by 2024. Multirole aircraft, C4ISR, attack helicopters, military IT-networking and physical security are the key opportunities for equipment suppliers.

Capital expenditure’s share in the defense budget increased from 9.8% in 2015 to 26.6% in 2019, and is expected to average 27.3% over the forecast period. Allocations towards the navy are expected to decrease from 18.8% during the historical period to 17.8% over the forecast period. Allocations towards the army are expected to marginally increase from an average of 37.1% during the historical period to 37.6% over the forecast period.

The report "Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024", provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Companies mentioned: Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria, Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited

Scope

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
  • The defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry during 2020-2024, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Nigerian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Nigerian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.
Reasons to Buy
  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Nigerian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts.
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1. Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. About the Author

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Current Market Scenario
3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception
3.1.2. Military Doctrine and Strategy
3.1.3. Nigerian Military Equipment
3.1.4. Procurement Programs
3.1.4.1. Ongoing Procurement Programs
3.1.4.2. Future Procurement Programs
3.1.4.3. Top Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2019-2024
3.1.5. Social, Political, and Economic Environment and Support for Defense Projects
3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances
3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.2.1. Nigerian Defense Budget to Grow at a CAGR of 6.55%
3.2.2. Insurgency, Piracy, Oil Smuggling, and Peacekeeping Operations are Expected to Drive Defense Expenditure
3.2.3. Defense Budget as a Percentage of GDP to Average 0.26% over the Forecast Period
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.3.1. Share of Capital Expenditure will Slightly Increase over the Forecast Period
3.3.2. Capital Expenditure is Anticipated to Record a CAGR of 6.42% during Forecast Period
3.3.3. Armed Forces Account for Most of the Defense Budget
3.3.4. Army Defense Expenditure to Reach US$0.9 Billion in 2024
3.3.5. Per Capita Defense Expenditure to Rise over the Forecast Period
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.4.1. Homeland Security Budget Projected to Increase over the Forecast Period
3.4.2. The Threat from Boko Haram, Drug Trafficking, Cybercrime, and Money Laundering are Expected to Drive the Homeland Security Budget
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.5.1. Nigerian Defense Budget Expected to Increase over the Forecast Period
3.5.2. Nigerian Military Expenditure is Limited Compared to the Countries with the Highest Global Defense Expenditure
3.5.3. The Country Allocates a Lower Percentage of GDP to Defense than Other African Countries
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - Projections over 2019-2024
3.6.2. Multi-role Aircraft
3.6.3. Airborne C4ISR
3.6.4. Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) - Physical Security

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Limited Domestic Defense Capabilities to Drive the Country’s Defense Imports
4.1.2. Russia, China and the US Accounts for the Majority of the Country’s Defense Imports
4.1.3. Aircraft and Naval Vessels Accounted for 73.6% of Defense Imports
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Nigeria Does not Export Arms due to its Underdeveloped Domestic Arms Industry

5. Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Medium to High
5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyers: Low to Medium
5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: Medium
5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Low
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: Low

6. Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Nigeria Does not Disclose any Offset Obligations Imposed by the Country
6.1.2. FDI in the Defense Sector is Prohibited by the Nigerian Government
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Budgeting Process
6.2.2. Defense Procurement Process
6.2.3. Direct Selling is the Preferred Market Entry Route for Foreign OEMs
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Corruption Acts as an Obstacle for Market Entry
6.3.2. Small Defense Budget Discourages Major Suppliers
6.3.3. Unorganized, Mismanaged Industry Jeopardizes the Development of the Domestic Industry

7. Competitive landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive landscape Overview
7.2. Nigeria Market Share Analysis, 2018-2024
7.3. Key Companies
7.3.1. Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Overview
7.3.2. Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Products and Services
7.3.3. Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.4. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances
7.3.5. Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards
7.3.6. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: Overview
7.3.7. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: Products and Services
7.3.8. Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives

8. Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Economic Performance
8.1.1. Gross Domestic per Capita
8.1.2. Gross Domestic Product, Current (US$)
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services
8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion)
8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US$
8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion)
8.1.8. Market capitalization of Listed Companies (% GDP)
8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU)
8.1.10. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP
8.1.11. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP
8.1.12. Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP
8.1.13. Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP
8.1.14. Net Foreign Direct Investment
8.1.15. Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP
8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion)

9. Appendix
9.1. About the Author
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: Nigerian Army Strength
Table 2: Nigerian Navy Strength
Table 3: Nigerian Air Force Strength
Table 4: Nigerian - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs (US$ Million), 2015-2019
Table 5: Nigerian - Future Procurement Programs
Table 6: Nigerian - Top Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Table 7: Nigerian Military Training Exercises
Table 8: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (NGN billion and US$ billion), 2015-2024
Table 9: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015-2024
Table 10: Nigerian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024
Table 11: Nigerian Defense Capital Expenditure (NGN Billion and US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Table 12: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2015-2024
Table 13: Nigeria Defense Budget Split Between Military Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2015-2024
Table 14: Nigeria Defense Budget Split Between Military Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2015-2024
Table 15: Nigerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
Table 16: Nigerian Homeland Security Expenditure (NGN Billion and US$ billion), 2015-2024
Table 17: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2015-2019 vs. 2020-2024
Table 18: Top Nigerian Defense Sectors by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Table 19: Competitive Landscape of the Nigeria Defense Industry
Table 20: Top Defense Suppliers in Nigerian Defense Industry by Value (US$ Million), 2018-2024
Table 21: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria - Main Products
Table 22: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances
Table 23: Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards
Table 24: Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited - Main Products

List of Figures
Figure 1: Nigerian Defense Budget: 2020 and 2024
Figure 2: Nigerian Defense Imports: 2013 and 2017
Figure 3: Nigerian Top Five Prospective Procurements/Developments
Figure 4: Nigerian National Security Threats
Figure 5: Nigerian Partnering Countries for Defense Cooperation and Military Training
Figure 6: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (NGN Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 7: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 8: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015-2024
Figure 9: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024
Figure 10: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 11: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 12: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between the Army, Air Force, Navy and Others, 2015-2024
Figure 13: Nigerian Defense Budget in NGN Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2015-2024
Figure 14: Nigerian Defense Budget in US$ Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2015-2024
Figure 15: Nigerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
Figure 16: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (NGN billion), 2015-2024
Figure 17: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2015-2024
Figure 18: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2015-2019 vs. 2020-2024
Figure 19: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2019 and 2024
Figure 20: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2019
Figure 21: Nigerian - Multi-Role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Figure 22: Nigerian - Airborne C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Figure 23: Nigerian, Physical Security, Critical Infrastructure Protection, Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Figure 24: Nigerian, Defense Imports (US$ Million), 2013-2017 (TIV Values*)
Figure 25: Nigerian, Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013-2017
Figure 26: Nigerian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013-2017
Figure 27: Industry Dynamics Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 28: Nigeria Budgeting Process
Figure 29: Key Challenges in Nigerian Defense Market
Figure 30: Nigerian Market Share Analysis, 2018-2024
Figure 31: Nigeria’s GDP per Capita (US$), 2015-2025
Figure 32: Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (Current US$ Billion), 2015-2025
Figure 33: Nigeria’s Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 34: Nigeria’s Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 35: Nigeria’s Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2013
Figure 36: Nigeria’s LCU per US$, 2015-2024
Figure 37: Nigeria’s Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
Figure 38: Nigeria’s Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% GDP), 2005-2012
Figure 39: Nigerian Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012
Figure 40: Nigeria’s Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 41: Nigeria’s Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 42: Nigeria’s Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 43: Nigeria’s Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2002-2012
Figure 44: Nigeria’s Net Foreign Direct Investment (BoP, Current US$ Billion), 2005-2012
Figure 45: Nigeria’s Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
Figure 46: Nigeria’s Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
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  • Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria
  • Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited
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