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Transformative Impact of Autonomous Driving on Global Heavy-Duty Truck Market

  • Report

  • 98 Pages
  • April 2019
  • Region: Global
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 4765092

~8,000 Level 4 Autonomous Trucks are Expected by 2025 Globally, Yet Regulations and Liability Framework Remain a Major Challenge

The author's research service on the regulatory framework towards autonomous driving in heavy-duty truck provides detailed market and technology trends, challenges, and forecasts from 2017 to 2025 at a global level. The study identifies and analyzes the key goals and progression needed to realize autonomous semi-trucks by 2025. It outlines the cost and competitive ecosystem over the forecast period and examines the current testing environment for automated vehicles globally. It also estimates the adoption of different levels of automated trucks in 2025 and beyond.

Autonomous driving in heavy-duty trucks will rely on four key pillars for its potential introduction into the market; regulations, innovation (technology), infrastructure, and societal acceptance. Global regions who thrive in these four categories will become early adopters and market drivers of autonomous driving.  Currently, there has been strong development in the advancement of technological capabilities towards autonomous trucks. All major OEMs and some Tier I suppliers have already demonstrated the ability to operate a level 3 autonomous truck on public roads. Although the technology components to enable a level 3 autonomous truck are available today, there are still many challenges ahead to prove its reliability and safety in any operation condition. SAE level 4 autonomous trucks are the target solution of many leading OEMs and are expected to be the first commercialized autonomous level seen for on-road usage. On the other hand, level-5-enabled trucks for on-road applications are not expected until after 2030. Moreover, autonomous regulations remain in their infancy compared to autonomous driving technologies.

Regulations have continued to move slowly to adapt to the ever-changing needs for autonomous truck testing effectively hindering its progression. Regardless of technological advancement, regulations and liability will remain the most pressing issue towards realizing level 3 autonomous trucks by 2025. Each global region is expected to have its own legislative framework supporting autonomous trucks. However, these policies must be harmonized throughout the entire region and cannot remain disparate between bordering countries or states.  The areas of need surrounding autonomous truck regulations include driver HOS, safety, liability, cybersecurity, and communication network (e.g., V2V, V2X, DSRC, LTE, and 5G).

The current regulations do not cover the unique operating conditions that are present with autonomous truck driving. As a result, a new set of autonomous specific policies will need to be developed in the short term to handle any of these critical issues. All major stakeholders (governments, insurance companies, OEMs, Tier I suppliers, and IT companies) will need to jointly collaborate in developing the proper autonomous legislative standards.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
  • Progression of Automation in HD Trucks
  • Value Proposition of Automated Commercial Vehicles
  • Taxonomy of Future Automated Driving Business Models
  • Summary of Key Findings
  • Snapshot of Global Automated Truck Adoption
  • Top 5 Country Readiness for Autonomous Truck Driving
  • Autonomous Truck Market Value
  • Autonomous Impact on Commercial Vehicle Industry Outlook

2. Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions This Study Will Answer
  • Research Background
  • Research Methodology

3. Definitions and Autonomous System Analysis
  • Automated Driving Definitions
  • Automation Levels
  • Functional Features for the Autonomous Truck
  • Functional Block Diagram of Autonomous Trucks

4. Value Proposition and Use-Case Analysis
  • Key Benefits to Autonomous Driving in Commercial Vehicles
  • Value Proposition of Automated Commercial Vehicles
  • Autonomous Penetration Phases by Vocation - Off Highway
  • Autonomous Penetration Phases by Vocation - On Highway
  • Key Market Trends Stoking Autonomous Truck Industry
  • Truck Platooning Benefits and Challenges
  • Platooning - Phase I and Phase II

5. Stakeholder Implications Analysis
  • Impact of Autonomous Driving on Industry Stakeholders
  • Impact of Autonomous Driving on Industry Stakeholders
  • Autonomous Implications - Fleets
  • Autonomous Implications - Truck Driver
  • Autonomous Implications - OEM
  • Autonomous Implications - Liability and Insurance
  • Autonomous Implications - Cybersecurity in Commercial Vehicles
  • Key Challenges to Autonomous Driving in Commercial Vehicles
  • Autonomous On-highway Driving Roadmap

6. Autonomous Regulatory Analysis
  • Validation and Testing of Automated Vehicles
  • Autonomous Implications - Regulatory Framework Needs
  • Legislative Initiatives for Key US State Testing of Automated CVs
  • EU Member States’ Initiatives for Testing of Automated CVs
  • Asia-Pacific and Oceania Initiatives for Testing of Automated Vehicles

7. Autonomous Market Outlook and Forecast
  • Autonomous Truck-readiness of the Top 5 Countries
  • Analysis of the Autonomous Truck-readiness of the Top 5 Countries
  • Global Truck Production and OEM Market Share
  • Snapshot of Global Automated Truck Adoption
  • Autonomous Truck Market Value

8. Autonomous Ecosystem and Value-Share
  • Value Map by Ecosystem Participants
  • Autonomous Truck Ecosystem
  • Autonomous Driving Ecosystem in HD Trucks

9. Technology Trends and Roadmap
  • Building Blocks of an Autonomous Truck
  • Autonomous Truck Technology Roadmap
  • Autonomous Technological Investment
  • V2X Technology Evolution for Piloting Autonomous Trucks
  • Levels of Autonomous Driving and Sensors
  • Technology Trend - LiDAR
  • Impact on the Development of Next-Generation Depth Sensing
  • Technology Trend - Sensor Fusion in Autonomous HD Trucks
  • Technology Trend - Deep Learning through Algorithms
  • Technology Trend - Domain Controllers
  • Technology Trend - Need for 48V
  • Future Advances in Hardware and Software Aimed at L5 Automation
  • Aftermarket Autonomous Kits

10. Autonomous Truck Development Cost Analysis
  • Progression of Automation in HD Trucks
  • Autonomous Development Cost Analysis
  • Level 3 Autonomous Commercial Vehicle Incremental Cost Analysis
  • Level 4 Autonomous Commercial Vehicle Incremental Cost Analysis

11. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
  • Growth Opportunity 1 - Regulations and Liability
  • Growth Opportunity 2 - Connectivity Solutions
  • Growth Opportunity 3 - Investments and Partnerships
  • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

12. The Last Word
  • Conclusions and Future Outlook
  • 4 Big Predictions

13. Appendix
  • List of Acronyms
  • Market Engineering Methodology
  • Legal Disclaimer
  • List of Exhibits