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Canadian Payments Forecast, 2019

  • ID: 4766732
  • Report
  • July 2019
  • Region: Canada
  • 260 Pages
  • Technology Strategies International
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Credit Card Transactions Oust Debit in Canada

FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Amazon
  • Bank of Montreal (BMO)
  • Dogecoin
  • Litecoin
  • PayPal
  • Starbucks
  • MORE

The Canadian payments landscape is undergoing fundamental changes as new technologies vie for the attention of consumers. Shopping habits are shifting as consumers embrace the convenience and functionality offered by smart phones, tablets, wearables and an almost ubiquitous internet connection. While mobile is mainstream in many areas, mobile payments are still embryonic. With unprecedented activity in the fintech space, payments in Canada are likely to be transformed within the next few years.

Canadian Payments Forecast, 2019 provides a detailed and insightful assessment of the prospects for the Canadian consumer payments market. It examines the Canadian consumer payments market in the context of developments in the Canadian economy and the fundamental shifts taking place in technology. Detailed five-year forecasts are developed for consumer payments and related acceptance infrastructure.

Payment types included in the report:

  • Cash
  • Cheques
  • Debit cards
  • Credit cards
  • Contactless payments
  • Mobile payments
  • Online purchases
  • Preauthorized payments
  • Bill payments
  • Prepaid cards
  • Gift cards
  • P2P payments
  • International remittances
  • Virtual currencies

Included in this year's comprehensive update of the report:

  • Selected findings from the 2019 Canadian Consumer Payments Survey, conducted amongst more than 2,000 adult Canadians
  • In-depth analysis of prospects for the Canadian economy, personal expenditure, and the retail sector
  • Analysis and forecast for each major consumer payment segment
  • An in-depth assessment of the penetration and acceptance of emerging payment technologies
  • Key Indicator tables for all major payment modes

Recognized by industry leaders as the most comprehensive, authoritative and independent review of the market available in Canada, Canadian Payments Forecast is now in its 8th year of publication. A strategic resource for payment professionals, Canadian Payments Forecast, 2019 provides essential in-depth planning information for anyone responsible for achieving growth in Canada's payment industry.

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Amazon
  • Bank of Montreal (BMO)
  • Dogecoin
  • Litecoin
  • PayPal
  • Starbucks
  • MORE
  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction and Methodology
  • The Canadian Economy
  • Prospects for Consumer Payments in Canada
    • Cash
    • Cheques
    • Debit cards
    • Credit cards
    • Contactless payments
    • Mobile payments
    • Online payments
    • Bill payments and transfers
    • Preauthorized payments
    • Prepaid cards
    • Gift cards
    • P2P payments
    • International Remittances
    • Virtual Currencies
  • Fraud
  • Consumer Payments in Perspective

List of Charts and Tables

INTRODUCTION

  • Forecasting Approach
  • USD/CAD Exchange Rate

THE CANADIAN ECONOMY

  • Economic Highlights
  • Annual Change in GDP (2009-2018)
  • Components of PCE (2018)
  • Real Growth in GDP, Retail Sales and PCE (2009-2018)
  • Annual Change in Components of PCE (2009-2018)
  • Canadian Retail Sales by Sector (2018)
  • Growth in Retail Trade by Segment  (Growth in 2018; CAGR: 2013-2018)
  • Forecast Real Growth in GDP (2018-2023)
  • Canadian Consumer Confidence Index (December 2006-June 2019)
  • Forecast Real Growth in GDP, Retail Sales and PCE  (2018-2023)
  • Components of PCE (2023)

CASH

  • Cash Highlights
  • Canadian Bank Notes and Coin in Circulation  (2007-2018)
  • Number of ABM's in Canada by Ownership  (2003-2018)
  • Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals  at ABMs in Canada (2003-2018)
  • Cash Available for Consumer Payment Transactions (2003-2018)
  • Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction Volumes in  Canada (2003-2018)
  • Forecast Number of ABM's in Canada by Ownership  (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Volume and Value of Cash Withdrawals at  ABMs in Canada (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Cash Available for Consumer Payment  Transactions (2018-2023)
  • Forecast of Cash-based Retail Payment Transaction  Volumes in Canada (2018-2023)

CHEQUES

  • Cheque Highlights
  • Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared
  • through the ACSS in Canada (2004-2018)
  • Reasons for Using Personal Cheques (P12M)
  • Forecast Volume and Value of Personal Cheques Cleared through the ACSS in Canada (2018-2023)

DEBIT

  • Debit Highlights
  • Number of Interac Direct Payment Monthly Users (2004-2018)
  • Value and Volume of Interac Debit Transactions (2004-2018)
  • Number of Merchants and Terminals Accepting
  • Interac Debit Payments (2004-2018)
  • Forecast Number of Interac Direct Payment Monthly  Users (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Value and Volume of Interac Debit  Transactions (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Number of Merchants and Terminals
  • Accepting Interac Debit Payments (2018-2023)

CREDIT CARDS

  • Credit Card Highlights
  • Total Number of Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2004-2018)
  • Value of Credit Card Transactions by Type  (2004-2018)
  • Volume of Credit Card Transactions by Type (2004-2018)
  • Gross Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions  (2004-2018)
  • Canadian Credit Card Loans (2004-2018)
  • Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting Visa and  MasterCard (2004-2018)
  • Forecast Total Number of Credit Cards Issued in Canada (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Gross Volume and Value of Credit Card Transactions (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Value of Credit Card Transactions by Type (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Volume Credit Card Transactions by Type (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Number of Merchant Outlets Accepting Visa  and MasterCard (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Canadian Credit Card Loans (2018-2023)

CONTACTLESS

  • Contactless Highlights
  • Contactless Payment Card Users and Terminals  (2010-2018)
  • Contactless Payment Values and Volumes (2012-2018)
  • Ownership of Contactless Card Brands in Canada
  • Usage of Contactless Payments Cards at Merchants  (P6M)
  • Forecast Contactless Payment Card Users and Terminals (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Contactless Payment Values and Volumes (2018-2023)
  • Contactless as a Proportion of Total Cash, Debit and Credit Transactions

MOBILE

  • Mobile Highlights
  • Forecast Number of Mobile Subscribers in Canada (2018-2023)
  • Forecast NFC Handset Penetration in Canada (2018-2023)
  • Primary Smart Phone Operating System Ownership (2014-2019)
  • Payment Applications Installed on Smart Phones
  • Usage of Smart Phones for Mobile Banking
  • Payments Made Using a Smart Phone
  • Volume and Value of All Mobile Payments Transactions (2010-2018)
  • Forecast Volume and Value of All Mobile Payment Transactions (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Volume and Value of In-Store Mobile Payments (2018-2023)

ONLINE

  • Online Highlights
  • Volume and Value of Online Purchases in Canada(2004-2018)
  • Categories of Canadian Online Purchases (P12M)
  • Payment Methods for Online Purchases (P12M)
  • Online Purchases by Region (P12M)
  • Forecast Volume and Value of Online Purchases in Canada (2018-2023)

PREAUTHORIZED PAYMENTS

  • Preauthorized Payments Highlights
  • Volume and Value of AFT Debits (1995-2018)
  • Preauthorized Bill Payments by Category (P12M)
  • Preauthorized Bill Payments by Category (Bank vs. Credit Card) (P12M)
  • Forecast Volume and Value of AFT Debits (2018-2023)

BILL PAYMENTS AND TRANSFERS

  • Bill Payments and Transfers Highlights
  • Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2004-2018)
  • Share of Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2004-2018)
  • Devices Used for Online Bill Payments (P12M)
  • Online Bill Payments by Category (P12M)
  • Forecast Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Share of Transfers and Payments by Delivery Channel (2018-2023)
  • Growth by Delivery Channel and Transaction Type (CAGR: 2013-2018, 2018-2023)

PREPA ID CARDS (PAYMENT BRANDS)

  • Prepaid Card Highlights
  • Total Prepaid Value and Volume (2009-2018)
  • Brand of Prepaid Card Purchased (P12M)
  • Prepaid Value and Volume Forecast (2018-2023)

GIFT CARDS

  • Gift Card Highlights
  • Total Gift Card Value and Volume (2009-2018)
  • Categories of Gift Cards/Vouchers Purchased (P12M)
  • Gift Card Value and Volume Forecast (2018-2023)

PERSON-2-PERSON (P2P) PAYMENTS

  • P2P Payment Highlights
  • Value and Volume of P2P Transactions (2010-2018)
  • Methods of P2P Payment (P6M)
  • Forecast Value and Volume of P2P Transactions(2018-2023)

FRAUD

  • Fraud Highlights
  • Face Value of Counterfeit Notes Passed (1998-2018)
  • Debit Card Fraud in Canada (2004-2018)

INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES

  • International Remittance Highlights
  • Value and Volume of International Remittances(2010-2018)
  • Services Used for International Remittances
  • Remittances by Region (P12M)
  • Forecast Value and Volume of International
  • Remittances (2018-2023)

VIRTUAL CURRENCIES

  • Awareness and Usage of Cryptocurrencies (2019)
  • Awareness and Usage of Bitcoin (2015-2019)

CONSUMER PAYMENTS IN PERSPECTIVE

  • Primary Payment Highlights
  • Bill Payments and Transfers Highlights
  • Secondary Payment Highlights
  • Vertical Market Highlights
  • Share of Value of PCE by Payment Type (2004-2018)
  • Number of Payment Transactions by Payment  Instrument Type (2004-2018)
  • Forecast Share of Value of PCE by Payment Type (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Number of Payment Transactions by Payment  Instrument Type (2018-2023)
  • Forecast Value of Payment Transactions by Payment  Instrument Type (Total; 2018-2023)
  • Forecast Number of Payment Transactions by Payment  Instrument Type (Total; 2018-2023)
  • Forecast Annual Growth Rates for Primary Payment  Instruments (CAGR: 2018-2023)
  • Forecast Growth for Secondary Payment Segments (CAGR: 2018-2023)
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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FEATURED COMPANIES

  • Amazon
  • Bank of Montreal (BMO)
  • Dogecoin
  • Litecoin
  • PayPal
  • Starbucks
  • MORE

Credit card transactions exceed debit card transactions in 2018

The number of credit card transactions in Canada has exceeded the number of debit purchase transactions for the first time since 1997, according to the recently released Canadian Payments Forecast, 2019, published by Technology Strategies International Inc. The report estimates that 6.047 billion consumer credit card payment transactions were conducted in 2018, compared with 6.042 billion debit payment transactions. The gap between credit card transactions and debit card transactions is expected to widen over the next few years.

“With the rollout of Interac debit payments in the early 1990’s it was very evident that Canadian consumers embraced debit payments with vigour, and debit payment transactions overtook credit card payment transactions within a few years,” says Christie Christelis, President of Technology Strategies International. “Since then debit has had an almost unassailable lead, until recently.”

Debit card and credit card transactions have each exceeded cash purchase transactions for the past few years, says the report. Cash’s slow but steady decline illustrates the progressive substitution of cash by electronic forms of payment.

“One of the factors contributing to the growth differential between credit and debit purchase transactions is that Canadian consumers are using their credit cards for lower transaction value regimes, spurred mainly by the popularity of contactless payments,” Christelis says. “The convenience of contactless payments has led to some substitution between debit and credit card payments.”

The report notes that even though online purchases only make up about 7% of Canadian retail purchases, the high growth in online commerce has also had an impact on the increase in credit card transactions since credit cards remain the most popular payment method for online purchases.

Christelis says that mobile payments are starting to gain some traction in Canada, with the majority of in-store mobile payment transactions being undertaken using a credit card. This currently makes a very small contribution to the growth differential between credit and debit card transactions, but it will be an important battleground for Interac to win if it wants to regain some ground and position itself for the future.

Additional highlights from the study are:

  • The number of debit and credit card payment transactions accounted for more than 60% of all payment transactions on personal consumption expenditure in 2018
  • The volume of contactless payment transactions grew by 33% in 2018 and accounted for more than 25% of the combined number of debit, credit, and cash consumer payment transactions
  • Mobile has become a significant channel in the area of transfers and bill payments and is expected to command the highest share of bill payments and transfers by 2020

The 260-page report provides a comprehensive review, analysis, and forecast of consumer payments in Canada. It draws on established statistical sources as well the Canadian Consumer Payments Survey, 2019, conducted by TSI amongst more than 2,000 consumers. The report identifies high growth segments in the Canadian payments market in the context of some important recent developments in the economy, regulatory environment, and the industry. Detailed forecasts are presented for credit card payments, debit card payments, cash payments, cheque payments, contactless payments, prepaid cards, gift cards, P2P payments, remittances, online payments, mobile payments, bill payments and transfers, ABM installations and POS terminals.

A strategic resource for payment professionals, Canadian Payments Forecast - 2019 provides essential in-depth planning information for all executives and managers playing a key role in Canada's payment industry.

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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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  • Amazon
  • American Express
  • Apple
  • Bank of Canada
  • Bank of Montreal (BMO)
  • Bitcoin
  • Blackberry
  • Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC)
  • Dash
  • Dogecoin
  • Ethereum
  • Google
  • Interac
  • Litecoin
  • MasterCard
  • Monero
  • PayPal
  • Payments Canada
  • Ripple
  • Royal Bank of Canada (RBC)
  • Samsung
  • Scotiabank
  • Starbucks
  • TD Bank
  • Uber
  • Visa
  • Western Union
  • Zcash
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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