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Chinese Commercial Vehicle Market Opportunity Analysis, 2017-2025

  • Report

  • 119 Pages
  • April 2019
  • Region: China
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 4768672

Alternate Powertrain Truck Sales Including Natural Gas (NG) and Electric Vehicle (xEV) to Reach 925,000 Units in 2025

China has the largest automotive market globally. The Chinese commercial truck market is expected to experience slight negative growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.4% during 2017–2025. This is mainly due to High base effect of HD vehicles in 2017. The high sales were due to new replacement demand and anti-overloading policy On the competitive front market which is highly concentrated and led by Foton, Dongfeng, JAC, FAW, and CNHTC in China, with a joint market share of 53.7% across light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty truck segments in 2017.

Digital freight brokerage, the rise of Chinese trucks, and new energy powertrain are the key growth opportunities that will drive demand for trucks during the long term. Rise of E-commerce to improve logistics service and fleets’ driving experience in China.

In the next 3-4 years the implementation of China VI regulations across light, medium and heavy-duty trucks will see the advent of advanced diesel engine technologies and alternate powertrain options from leading Chinese OEMs.

Diesel powertrain is expected to continue its dominance in the Chinese commercial truck market during the long term. Nevertheless, emission standard restriction, purchase incentive offered by both central and regional governments, as well as new launch of truck models are motivating the market adoption of new energy powertrain solution during the long term. The light-duty truck will continue to enhance its largest market share among the truck segment, accounting for 62.6% of new truck sales in 2025.

Cold chain is targeted to be one of the fastest growing logistics businesses especially in the light-duty segment in China; key involvements are fresh food and takeaway catering.

Research Scope

The aim of this study is to research, analyze, and forecast emerging commercial truck platform strategies in the light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty commercial truck market. The study presents a strategic growth opportunity insight into the Chinese commercial truck market and its impact on the growing trends up to 2025.

Research Highlights

  • To provide a strategic perspective of the freight market in China, including key macro-economic factors.
  • To provide market size and sales potential of light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty commercial trucks up to 2025.
  • To estimate potential and penetration of alternative powertrains such as natural gas and xEV in Chinese light, medium and heavy-duty trucks.
  • To provide market size and forecasts for freight brokerage solutions for 2017-2025.
  • To present an actionable set of recommendations for stakeholders to grow in the commercial truck market in China.

Key Issues Addressed

  • What is the market size of light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty commercial trucks up to 2025?
  • What is the impact of freight demand on commercial truck transformation in China?
  • How will the Chinese road freight brokerage market evolve by 2025 along with the market share of key solution types and market revenue opportunity?
  • What are the current scenario and future outlook of the alternate powertrain in China including xEV and natural gas trucks in China?
  • What is the key commercial truck market transformation outlook of adopting global logistics trends attaching with

Key Conclusion

The research discusses market overview, Mega Trends, and industry convergence implications, the logistics market in China, digital freight brokerage, the rise of Chinese trucks, Electrical Charging standard, Electrical Charging infrastructure new energy powertrain, market drivers and restraints, forecasts and trends, market share, and competitive analysis and growth opportunities. The study closes with conclusions and future outlook.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
  • Key Takeaways
  • Hyper-fragmented Chinese Freight Market
  • Key Trends in the Chinese Commercial Vehicle Market
  • China Tailpipe and Greenhouse Gas (GHG)/Fuel Efficiency Regulations
  • China Commercial Vehicle Market - Powertrain Split
  • China’s Focus Towards Fuel-cell Vehicles
  • Executive Summary - Key Findings and Future Outlook

2. Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions This Study Will Answer
  • Research Background
  • Research Methodology

3. Definitions and Segmentation
  • Commercial Vehicle Segmentation
  • Commercial Truck Definitions

4. Freight Mobility Market Overview - China
  • Road Transportation Market - China Market
  • Road Transportation and Logistics
  • Road Transportation Market - Truck Transportation China Market
  • eCommerce Market in China
  • Road Transportation Market - Trucking Fleets in China
  • Road Freight Market Structure - FTL/LTL and Express Services
  • Key Trends and Disruptors Affecting Road Freight Transportation

5. Drivers and Restraints - Commercial Truck Market
  • Market Drivers
  • Drivers Explained
  • Market Restraints
  • Restraints Explained

6. Forecast and Trends - Commercial Truck Market
  • Forecast and Trends - Unit Shipment Forecast by Segments
  • China Forecast Considerations
  • China Alternate Powertrain Market
  • China Alternate Powertrain Market: Key Influencing Trends

7. Chinese LCV Market Overview
  • Key Trends in the LCV Market
  • China Stage VI Emission Standard for LDV
  • China LDV Fuel Efficiency Standards
  • China LD Truck Market - Competitive Analysis
  • Competitive Analysis - LDT Market Breakdown by OEM
  • China LD xEV Truck Snapshot
  • China - LD Truck Market: Powertrain Forecast
  • China LD Electric Truck Forecast
  • Profile - Foton Ollin CTS Series
  • Profile - Dongfeng

8. Chinese MCV Market Overview
  • Key Trends in the MCV Market
  • China MD Truck Market - Competitive Analysis
  • Competitive Analysis - MDT Market Breakdown by OEMs
  • China MD xEV Truck Snapshot
  • China MD NG Truck Snapshot
  • China - MD Truck Market: Powertrain Forecast
  • China MD Electric Truck Forecast
  • Profile - Dongfeng Tianjin
  • Profile - Dongfeng Tianjin BEV

9. Chinese HCV Market Overview
  • Key Trends in the HCV Market
  • China PEMS for China V HDVs
  • China Emission Regulations
  • China Fuel Efficiency Standards
  • China HD Truck Market - Competitive Analysis
  • Competitive Analysis - HDT Market Breakdown by OEMs
  • China HD xEV Truck Snapshot
  • China HD NG Truck Snapshot
  • China - HD Truck Market: Powertrain Forecast
  • Chinese HD Electric Truck Forecast
  • Profile - FAW Jiefang
  • Profile - Shaanxi X3000

10. China Natural Gas Influencing Factors
  • Natural Gas Reserves in China
  • Natural Gas Pricing Reform in China
  • Natural Gas Station Overview in China
  • China’s Major Regions for Shale Gas and LNG Terminals

11. Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Adoption in China
  • Electric Vehicle Charging Stations in China’s Provinces
  • Public Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in Chinese Cities
  • Comparison of Global DC Charging Standards
  • CEC and CHAdeMO Collaboration on Ultra-fast Charging Standard
  • Chinese Central Government Incentives on Electric CVs
  • Chinese Central Government Incentives on Hydrogen Infrastructure
  • China Tech Requirement for NEV Subsidies
  • Fuel Cell Electric Trucks - Purchase Incentive by Regional Governments

12. China Uber for Freight Market
  • Digital Freight Brokerage Business Model
  • Market Opportunities, Challenges, and Technological Enablers
  • China Digital Brokerage Solution: A $1.0 Billion Market by 2025
  • China On-Demand Solutions: Chance to be a $22.58 Billion Market
  • Manbang Group - Company Profile
  • Manbang Group - Product Portfolio
  • Fuyoukache - Company Profile
  • Fuyoukache - Product Portfolio

13. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
  • Growth Opportunity - Commercial Truck Market in China
  • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

14. Conclusions and Future Outlook
  • Key Conclusions
  • The Last Word - 3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

15. Appendix
  • Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
  • List of Exhibits

Companies Mentioned

A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes:

  • Dongfeng
  • FAW Jiefang
  • Foton Motor
  • Fuyoukache
  • Manbang Group
  • Shaanxi
  • Uber