Ammonia - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026-2031)

The ammonia market size was valued at 193.69 Million tons in 2025 and is estimated to grow from 197.35 Million tons in 2026 to reach 216.72 Million tons by 2031, at a CAGR of 1.89% during the forecast period (2026-2031). This report is Segmented by Type (Liquid and Gas), End-User Industry (Agriculture, Mining and Metals, Textiles, Pharmaceutical, Industrial Refrigeration, Power Generation, and Other End-User Industries), and Geography (Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Volume (Tons).

Global Ammonia Market Trends and Insights

Surge in Low-Carbon Fertilizer Demand Across Asia

Asia-Pacific governments are linking subsidy disbursements to carbon intensity, prompting fertilizer majors to integrate electrolyzers at legacy ammonia sites. India’s Direct Benefit Transfer scheme added a 5% green-ammonia blending requirement that opens 980,000 tons of incremental demand by 2027, while Indonesia’s state-owned Pupuk Indonesia secured USD 1.2 billion to retrofit Petrokimia Gresik with renewable hydrogen. China’s 14th Five-Year Plan caps new coal-based capacity and mandates capture readiness above 500,000 tons per year, crowding production into efficient state-owned complexes. These measures funnel fresh volume into the ammonia market, deepen import dependence in fertilizer-short economies, and underpin new merchant green-ammonia projects across the Middle East.

Adoption as Hydrogen Carrier for Maritime Bunkering

Ammonia stores 4.3 MWh per cubic meter at ambient conditions, matching marine-diesel energy density without cryogenic systems. Japanese shipper NYK ordered 12 ammonia-fueled bulk carriers in 2024 and the European Maritime Safety Agency published handling guidelines that standardize double-walled piping and vapor recovery, trimming perceived operational risk. Singapore granted three bunkering licenses targeting 500,000 tons per year by 2030, an early demand anchor for Pacific container routes. Together these actions seed a dedicated bunkering network that could absorb 3 million tons annually before 2031, widening the ammonia market.

Volatile Natural-Gas Prices Inflating Global Cash Costs

Natural gas forms up to 80% of grey-ammonia production cost, so feedstock swings shutter marginal plants. European producers faced average TTF prices of EUR 42 per MWh in 2025, pushing cash costs beyond EUR 600 per ton and forcing Grupa Azoty to idle 180,000 tons of capacity for four months. U.S. operators enjoy Henry Hub below USD 3 per MMBtu, yet LNG exports are tightening supply and lifting summer peaks, squeezing the margin cushion. Asian importers pay USD 12-14 per MMBtu for spot cargoes, making local ammonia uncompetitive and reinforcing reliance on Middle Eastern volumes.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

• Rising Investments in Green-Ammonia Export Hubs
• Rising Usage in Explosive Production
• Safety and Toxicity Concerns Limiting Industrial Substitution

Segment Analysis

Liquid retained 91.28% of global volume in 2025, underscoring entrenched logistics that pipe anhydrous ammonia into fertilizer plants and load pressurized tankers for ocean trade. Bulk storage and refrigeration account for about 30% of delivered cost, yet the sunk capital discourages rapid switching, keeping the liquid segment pivotal to the ammonia market. North African and Middle Eastern exporters leverage tanker fleets to penetrate Europe and Asia as high natural-gas prices curtail local output, while Gulf Coast exporters exploit contiguous petrochemical infrastructure to reach Latin America.

Gas-phase is projected to expand at a 4.18% CAGR through 2031. Industrial refrigeration retrofits in food retail and pharmaceuticals substitute synthetic refrigerants with on-site gaseous ammonia, shrinking power consumption by 18% according to the International Institute of Ammonia Refrigeration. China’s nylon and acrylic producers pipe gaseous ammonia from adjacent coal-gasification units to boost reaction kinetics and trim purification steps. These end-use efficiencies widen the appeal of gaseous formats despite the segment’s smaller base.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Type
  • Liquid
  • Gas
• By End-user Industry
  • Agriculture
  • Mining and Metals
  • Textiles
  • Pharmaceutical
  • Industrial Refrigeration
  • Power Generation
  • Other End-user Industries (Water-treatment, Rubber, Petroleum, Pulp and Paper)
• By Geography
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • ASEAN Countries
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Italy
    • NORDIC Countries
    • Rest of Europe
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Middle East and Africa
    • Saudi Arabia
    • South Africa
    • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific captured 39.16% of global tonnage in 2025 and is forecast to compound at 3.76% through 2031. China is closing sub-scale coal units that fail to meet 31 GJ per ton energy benchmarks, channeling production to efficient state-owned complexes and opening space for imported green volumes. India’s blending mandate and subsidy reforms lift incremental demand even as domestic natural-gas constraints persist. Japan and South Korea are retreating from high-cost local production and re-engineering port infrastructure for 6 million tons of imports by 2030, reinforcing Asia’s dual role as producer and consumer of the ammonia market.

North America benefits from plentiful shale gas and Inflation Reduction Act incentives worth up to USD 85 per ton of CO₂ sequestered, catalyzing blue-ammonia clusters around the Gulf Coast, supporting the Mexico ammonia market. CF Industries, Nutrien, and Koch Fertilizer are adding capture units and pipeline tie-ins, locking in sub-USD 320 per ton delivered costs. Canada’s hydro-rich provinces pitch zero-carbon hydropower for green-ammonia projects that could export through Atlantic ports, extending regional influence beyond fertilizer.

In Europe, capacity is restricted in 2024-2025 as gas prices breached EUR 50 per MWh, reinforcing reliance on imports from North Africa and the Middle East. The European Commission now labels ammonia “strategic” under its Critical Raw Materials Act, intending to streamline permitting for domestic low-carbon projects. Meanwhile, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE exploit USD 2 per MMBtu gas to ship low-carbon cargoes into Europe and Asia, while Egypt and Oman fast-track wind-and-solar-based plants that target sub-USD 400 per ton export parity. South America is building wind-powered facilities in Chile’s Magallanes and solar-driven projects in Brazil’s Pecém and injecting fresh competition into Atlantic trade flows.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

• Acron Group
• BASF
• CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
• CSBP
• Dyno Nobel
• EuroChem Group
• Group DF
• Grupa Azoty S.A.
• IFFCO
• Industries Qatar
• JSC Togliattiazot
• Koch Fertilizer, LLC
• LSB Industries
• Nutrien
• OCI
• Orica Limited
• PetroChina Company Limited
• PT Pupuk Sriwidjaja Palembang
• Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilisers
• SABIC
• The Mosaic Company
• Yara

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support