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Astellas Company Analysis

Description Jump to:
Updated analysis and forecasts based on Q1 2017 company-reported sales.

The author Analytics explores Astellas’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook, encompassing corporate strategy, marketed portfolio, pipeline potential, and financial performance over 2016–26.
Analyst – Edward Thomason

Snapshot
  • 2021 outlook – Revenue will fall by $700m between 2016–21 as generics erode key products in the genitourinary and I&I portfolios.

  • 2026 outlook – Revenue will fall by $300m out to 2026, as gains made in the oncology portfolio during 2021–26 fail to offset earlier losses.

  • Events – Xtandi continues to make headway in prostate cancer, while Astellas’s genitourinary franchise fails to offset generic erosion of older products.


Highlights
  • Astellas will marginally retract at a CAGR of -0.3% as the commercialization of Xtandi offsets key patent expiries.

  • Continued growth of Xtandi will inaugurate Astellas as a leader in prostate cancer.

  • Patent expiration of Myrbetriq and disappointing results for solifenacin/mirabegron will be unable to mitigate declining sales of Vesicare.

  • Astellas’s I&I portfolio will contract due to increased generic competition of flagship products.


Model updates
  • Xtandi – Discontinuation of Xtandi development in TNBC and slow US growth.

  • Tarceva – Removed from forecast.

  • Vesicare – Regulatory submissions filed for use in pediatric NDO in the US and EU.

  • Linzess – Positive topline results from studies in Japan for CIC, and launch in IBS-C.

  • Repatha – Cardiovascular benefit demonstrated in FOURIER CVOT study.

  • Naquotinib – Failure and discontinuation of development in NSCLC.

  • Evenity – Delayed launch date and adjusted sales forecast in osteoporosis.

  • Solifenacin/mirabegron – Regulatory filing in US in overactive bladder.

  • Sitagliptin/ipragliflozin – Regulatory filing for use in the treatment of type 2 diabetes in Japan

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
Snapshot
Model updates
Analysis structure
Q1 2018 [JPN] REVIEW
Astellas had a solid start to 2018 [JPN]
Xtandi impresses
Overactive bladder franchise transition going well
New CEO announces restructuring program and new R&D strategy
Additional events
Bibliography
Q4 2017 [JPN] REVIEW
Astellas sales marginally down as ex-Japan gains are offset by a challenging domestic market
Astellas’s overactive bladder and transplantation franchises, as well as Xtandi, drove a global increase in sales, but generic
headwinds are approaching
Xtandi set to maintain growth momentum with non-metastatic setting approval
Other Q4 2017 [JPN] updates
Bibliography
Q3 2017 [JPN] REVIEW
Astellas reports robust revenue growth as Xtandi’s uptake offsets generic headwinds
Corporate update
Clinical data update
Key catalysts for 2018 [JPN]
Bibliography
STRATEGY ANALYSIS
“Global Category Leader” business model
New CEO and R&D strategy
M&A activity bolsters Astellas’s pipeline
Acquisitions intensify Astellas’s focus on ophthalmology
Divestment strategy
Astellas’s SWOT analysis
Astellas’s key events and catalysts
Bibliography
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
Q1 2018 [JPN]
FACTS AND FIGURES
Astellas’s prescription pharma sales outlook
Astellas’s regional pharma sales outlook
Astellas’s therapy area dynamics
Astellas’s growth drivers and resistors
Astellas’s lifecycle analysis
Astellas’s pipeline analysis
Astellas’s M&A strategy and history
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Astellas’s prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2014–27 [JPN]
Figure 2: Astellas’s therapy area dynamics, 2017–27 [JPN]
Figure 3: Astellas’s launch/core/expiry portfolio configuration, 2017–27 [JPN]
Figure 4: Astellas’s pipeline overview
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Astellas’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2017–27 [JPN]
Table 2: Astellas’s prescription pharmaceutical sales by region ($m), 2017–27 [JPN]
Table 3: Astellas’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2017–27 [JPN]
Table 4: Astellas’s genitourinary portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27 [JPN]
Table 5: Astellas’s oncology portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27 [JPN]
Table 6: Astellas’s immunology and inflammation portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27 [JPN]
Table 7: Astellas’s key products, 2017–27 [JPN]
Table 8: Astellas’s sales by launch, core, and expiry portfolio ($m), 2017–27 [JPN]
Table 9: Astellas’s launch portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27 [JPN]
Table 10: Astellas’s key merger and acquisition deals, 2007–18

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