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UCB Company Analysis

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The author explores UCB’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2017–27. The author analyses include quarterly earnings coverage and provide timely updates to company product forecasts The full company profile encompasses analysis on corporate strategy, portfolio analysis, and pipeline potential.

  • Overview – UCB will experience impressive mid-term growth of its core portfolio of CNS and I&I products, but a heavy exposure to generics, and insufficient late-stage pipeline mean the company is set to decline out to 2027.
  • Key themes – [1] UCB’s pharmaceutical revenue growth will falter from 2021, and sales will retract by $201m over the forecast period [2] The company’s CNS portfolio will decline at a CAGR of -4.3% out to 2027 owing to significant generic erosion of key brands [3] UCB is attempting to combat generic pressure through label expansions and the launch of bimekizumab in psoriasis [4] The launch of UCB’s musculoskeletal portfolio with Evenity in 2018 will disappoint, and fail to negate overall declining sales [5] UCB’s weak late-stage pipeline leaves it unable to counter falling sales from the expiries of four key products.
  • Q2 2018 – UCB rebounds in Q2 2018, reporting solid growth for H1 2018.
  • Out to 2022 – UCB’s revenue will grow strongly to a peak of $5.6bn in 2021 due to continued uptake of Cimzia, Vimpat, and Briviact.
  • Out to 2027 – A lack of pipeline launches, and generic erosion of multiple CNS products, will drive a downward sales trend out to 2027, falling below total 2017 revenue.
  • Pipeline – UCB’s previously empty late-stage pipeline has improved, with bimekizumab, USL261, and Evenity forecast to add $879m by 2027, and I&I candidate bimekizumab being the focus of long-term growth.
  • Lifecycle – UCB’s launch portfolio will fail to offset declines in the company’s core and expiry portfolios owing to ongoing and pending generic competition.
  • Major events – UCB’s CNS and I&I portfolios are continuing to gain uptake after winning label expansions for Cimzia, Briviact, and Vimpat.
Model updates
  • Added bimekizumab sales.
  • Added USL261 sales.
  • Brought Neupro patent expiry in the US and EU forward to Q1 2021.
  • Added non-radiographic axial ankylosing spondyloarthritis label expansion to Cimzia sales from Q3 2019.
Analysis structure
Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in UCB’s portfolio out to 2027 using 10-year in-house sales forecastssegmented by the following sections.

Quarterly Review
What were the major highlights from UCB’s latest earnings call and quarterly performance?

Strategy Analysis
  • How is UCB strategically poised out to 2027?
  • What are UCB’s key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats?
  • What are UCB’s key catal.during the current year?
Portfolio Analysis
  • Why will specific therapy areas experience the largest growth and decline?
  • What are the detailed competitive dynamics at play in UCB’s important therapeutic markets?
  • How is UCB adapting strategically to internal and external headwinds?
Facts and Figures
  • What is UCB’s forecasted sales performance out to 2027?
  • Which therapy areas will experience the largest growth and decline?
  • What are the portfolio weightings of UCB based on the lifecycle of its products?
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Model updates
Analysis structure

Q2 2018 REVIEW
UCB rebounds in Q2 2018, reporting solid growth for H1 2018
I&I franchise remains solid
Neuroscience business continues to enjoy steady growth

Q1 2018 REVIEW
UCB reports underwhelming Q1 2018 revenues as Cimzia shows weakness
UCB acquires midazolam rights to bolster late-stage pipeline

Q4 2017 REVIEW
UCB exceeds 2017 revenue guidance as its core products show impressive growth
Core product growth
New wave of products will drive sustainable growth
Key catalysts for 2018

Q3 2017 REVIEW
UCB has increased its 2017 revenue guidance to €4.4bn–4.5bn after reporting strong growth in all five of its core products
Label expansions and pipeline updates in Q3 2017
Important catalysts for Q4 2017

UCB divestment strategy to improve profitability
Open innovation and partnering
UCB’s SWOT analysis
UCB’s key events and catalysts

Q2 2018

UCB’s prescription pharma sales outlook
UCB’s regional pharma sales outlook
UCB’s therapy area dynamics
UCB’s growth drivers and resistors
UCB’s portfolio lifecycle analysis
UCB’s pipeline analysis
UCB’s M&A strategy and history

Figure 1: UCB’s prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2014–27
Figure 2: UCB’s therapy area dynamics, 2017–27
Figure 3: UCB’s launch/core/expiry portfolio configuration, 2017–27
Figure 4: UCB’s pipeline overview

Table 1: UCB’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2017–27
Table 2: UCB’s prescription pharmaceutical sales by region ($m), 2017–27
Table 3: UCB’s sales by therapy area ($m), 2017–27
Table 4: UCB’s immunology and inflammation portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27
Table 5: UCB’s CNS portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27
Table 6: UCB’s musculoskeletal portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27
Table 7: UCB’s key products, 2017–27
Table 8: UCB’s sales by launch, core, and expiry portfolio ($m), 2017–27
Table 9: UCB’s launch portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017–27
Table 10: UCB’s key merger and acquisition deals, 2004–18
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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