The author explores Allergan’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook, encompassing corporate strategy, marketed portfolio, pipeline potential, and financial performance over 2017–27.
Snapshot
Model updates
Analysis structure
Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in Allergan’s portfolio out to 2027 using 10-year in-house sales forecastssegmented by the following sections.
Quarterly Review
What were the major highlights from Allergan’s latest earnings call and quarterly performance?
Strategy Analysis
Portfolio Analysis
Facts and Figures
Snapshot
- Overview – Allergan is set to experience a 2.1% CAGR between 2017–27 as new products offset strong generic headwinds to its ophthalmology portfolio.
- Key themes – [1] Botox will show sustained growth across therapeutic and cosmetic indications [2] Allergan’s CNS portfolio will expand impressively due to growth of new drugs to treat neurological disorders [3] The company’s genitourinary portfolio will decline by $158m out to 2027, despite growth in Lo Loestrin Fe and Esmya sales [4] During 2017–27, the gastroenterology portfolio will grow at a 7.0% CAGR, driven by best-in-class Linzess and Viberzi in IBS.
- Out to 2022 – In 2018, total revenue will decline owing to a heavy expiry portfolio before new products drive a recovery, adding $1.9bn out to 2022.
- Out to 2027 – New products and launches will fuel solid growth out to 2027, adding $3.7bn.
- Pipeline – Allergan’s launch products will add $2.4bn out to 2027, rebuilding the company’s marketed portfolio in the face of a heavy expiry portfolio.
- Lifecycle – Allergan faces an escalating patent cliff in 2018 as its second largest-grossing product, Restasis, loses market exclusivity, intensifying ongoing generic competition for key company brands, including Namenda XR and Estrace. Allergan’s expiry portfolio is forecast to lose $3.6bn out to 2027.
- Events – Topline Phase III success for atogepant and ubrogepant in migraine treatment; strategic review concludes with women’s health and infectious diseases divestitures; Esmya faces uphill battle for US approval in uterine fibroids; abicipar pegol achieves positive Phase III results in AMD.
Model updates
- Added ubrogepant sales.
- Delayed US launch of Esmya.
Analysis structure
Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in Allergan’s portfolio out to 2027 using 10-year in-house sales forecastssegmented by the following sections.
Quarterly Review
What were the major highlights from Allergan’s latest earnings call and quarterly performance?
Strategy Analysis
- How is Allergan strategically poised out to 2027?
- What are Allergan’s key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats?
- What are Allergan’s key catal.during the current year?
Portfolio Analysis
- Why will specific therapy areas experience the largest growth and decline?
- What are the detailed competitive dynamics at play in Allergan’s important therapeutic markets?
- How is Allergan adapting strategically to internal and external headwinds in preceding quarters?
Facts and Figures
- What is Allergan’s forecasted sales performance out to 2027?
- What is the revenue trajectory of Allergan’s current top 10 products out to 2027?
- Which therapy areas will experience the largest growth and decline?
- What are the portfolio weightings of Allergan based on the lifecycle of its products?
Table of Contents
OVERVIEW
Q2 2018 REVIEW
Q1 2018 REVIEW
Q4 2017 REVIEW
Q3 2017 REVIEW
STRATEGY ANALYSIS
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
FACTS AND FIGURES
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF TABLES