Roche - Research and Markets

The publisher explores Roche’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29.

Snapshot

Overview: Roche is poised to grow despite significant biosimilar headwinds to legacy franchises, with several new blockbusters and a strong late-stage pipeline.
Key themes: [1] Roche will see near-term growth even as key franchises encounter heavy biosimilar competition, as recent launches have been very strong [2] Ocrevus, Perjeta, Tecentriq, and Hemlibra are all seeing rapid growth at blockbuster levels [3] Roche’s recent string of acquisitions reflects the company’s ambition to reinforce its dominance in oncology, in anticipation of biosimilar erosion of its leading brands.

Model updates (24 July 2020)

Avastin forecast adjusted lower due to higher-than-expected biosimilar impact
Rituxan forecast adjusted lower due to higher-than-expected biosimilar impact
Actemra forecast adjusted higher due to COVID-19 benefits
Ocrevus forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impacts to new patient starts in MS
Lucentis forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact on ophthalmology patient access
Pralsetinib forecast added due to in-licensing of asset from Blueprint Medicines
Satralizumab name changed to Enspryng due to approval in Japan.

Model updates (3 June 2020)

Avastin forecast adjusted lower due to biosimilar impact in the US
Rozlytrek forecast adjusted lower due to launch trend
Herceptin forecast adjusted lower due to biosimilar impact in the US
Ocrevus forecast adjusted higher due to strong demand trends and continued market share gains
Polivy forecast adjusted higher due to initial launch in Europe.

Model updates (4 March 2020)

Rituxan forecast adjusted higher due to lower-than-expected initial impact from biosimilar launches in the US
Herceptin forecast adjusted lower due to continued generic erosion and patients switching to Kadcyla
Perjeta forecast adjusted higher due to increased patient demand for adjuvant early breast cancer
Ocrevus forecast adjusted higher due to continued uptake across all types of multiple sclerosis and gains in earlier lines of therapy
Tecentriq forecast adjusted higher due to uptake in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer and triple-negative breast cancer, in addition to first-line non-small cell lung cancer
Kadcyla forecast adjusted higher due to adjuvant treatment and switching from Herceptin
Hemlibra forecast adjusted higher due to continued share gains in non-inhibitors and inhibitors
Alecensa forecast adjusted higher due to growth in first-line ALK+ non-small cell lung cancer and NDRL listing in China
Rozlytrek forecast adjusted lower due to slower-than-expected launch
Polivy forecast adjusted higher due to stronger-than-expected launch
Satralizumab forecast added
SPK-8011 forecast added
SRP-9001 forecast added after $1.15bn upfront licensing deal with Sarepta.

Model updates (17 October 2019)

Avastin forecast adjusted higher due to stronger sales in Rest of World, with notable growth in China driven by first-line CRC and NSCLC, along with longer duration of treatment
Perjeta forecast adjusted higher due to growth driven by early breast cancer (eBC) adjuvant setting
Tecentriq forecast adjusted higher due to growth in first-line NSCLC and launches in first-line SCLC and first-line TNBC
Kadcyla forecast adjusted higher due to stronger-than-expected initial uptake in the US after real-time oncology review approval in HER2-positive eBC
Hemlibra forecast adjusted higher due to strong uptake in the US and Japan in non-inhibitors.

Model updates (16 August 2019)

Avastin forecast adjusted higher due to lower-than-expected biosimilar impact in 2019
Ocrevus forecast adjusted higher due to continued strong adoption in the US
Tecentriq forecast adjusted higher due to rapid uptake in triple-negative breast cancer and extensive-stage small cell lung cancer
Kadcyla forecast adjusted higher due to initial uptake in the US after real-time oncology review approval in HER2-positive eBC
Hemlibra forecast adjusted higher due to strong uptake globally
Alecensa forecast adjusted lower due to less share gain in first-line NSCLC than anticipated
Rozlytrek (entrectinib) forecast added
Polivy (polatuzumab vedotin) forecast added
Idasanutlin forecast added
Ipatasertib forecast added
Faricimab forecast added
Satralizumab forecast added
Risdiplam forecast added.

Company Background

Recent Earnings Review

Company Forecast

Company Profile

Clinical Trial Overview

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