Novartis - Research and Markets

The publisher explores Novartis’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019–29.

Snapshot

Overview: Novartis’s strong launch portfolio will drive robust revenue growth over the forecast period.
Key themes: [1] Novartis’s launch portfolio is expected to generate $10bn in 2029, as the company’s late-stage pipeline results in several new approvals each year [2] Novartis has a leadership position in the cell and gene therapy markets [3] Cosentyx and Entresto will remain blockbusters for years to come and see significant growth [4] Litigation around Gilenya generics and launch trajectory of Mayzent are key for stabilizing Novartis’s market share in multiple sclerosis.

Model updates (22 July 2020)

Lucentis forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact
Entresto forecast adjusted lower
Sandostatin forecast adjuster lower
Zolgensma forecast adjusted lower in the US and higher internationally due to launch trends in Europe
Xiidra forecast adjusted lower due to removal of European launch
Beovu forecast adjusted lower due to incidence of severe adverse events negatively impacting launch trajectory
Adakveo forecast adjusted higher due to continued launch trends.

Model updates (3 June 2020)

Model updates (26 February 2020)

Cosentyx forecast adjusted higher due to continued above-market growth in dermatology and rheumatology
Gilenya forecast adjusted higher due to assumed later generic entry in the US
Sandostatin forecast adjusted higher due to re-evaluation of generic competition to Sandostatin LAR
Lutathera forecast adjusted lower due to plateauing of sales in the US
Kisqali forecast adjusted higher due to accelerated growth in the US
Kymriah forecast adjusted lower due to less uptake of CAR-T globally
Piqray forecast adjusted higher due to launch trend and improved testing rates for PIK3CA mutations
Zolgensma forecast adjusted higher due to continued growth and share gains in spinal muscular atrophy
Mayzent forecast adjusted higher due to improving launch trajectory
Beovu forecast adjusted higher due to strong launch, although recent adverse events temper near-term outlook
Arzerra forecast adjusted higher due to launch expectations in multiple sclerosis
Inclisiran forecast added due to closing of The Medicines Company acquisition.

Model updates (16 December 2019)

QAW039 forecast removed due to Novartis discontinuing development following the failure of the Phase III LUSTER and ZEAL trials.

Model updates (4 November 2019)

Xiidra forecast added after completion of acquisition from Takeda
Cosentyx forecast adjusted higher in the US due to strong growth in dermatology and axial spondyloarthritis
Gleevec forecast adjusted higher due to impact of generics slowing relative to prior expectations
Lutathera forecast adjusted higher due to ongoing launches in the US and Europe
Kisqali forecast adjusted higher due to use in metastatic breast cancer patients
Kymriah forecast adjusted higher due to ongoing uptake and reimbursement impacts
Piqray forecast adjusted higher due to strong initial launch in the US
Zolgensma forecast adjusted higher due to strong launch in the US
Mayzent forecast adjusted significantly lower due to weaker than expected launch in the US.

Model updates (15 August 2019)

Entresto forecast adjusted higher
Cosentyx forecast adjusted higher
Tafinlar/Mekinist forecast adjusted lower
Lutathera forecast adjusted higher
Kymriah forecast adjusted higher
Aimovig forecast adjusted lower by removing US sales as AMGN reports instead of NVS
Piqray forecast adjusted higher
Zolgensma forecast added
Capmatinib (INC280) forecast added
Brolucizumab forecast updated to include brand name Beovu
Asciminib (ABL001) forecast added
QAW039 (fevipiprant) forecast added
Crizanlizumab forecast added
QGE031 (ligelizumab) forecast added
PDR001 (spartalizumab) forecast added
Arzerra (OMB157) forecast added.

Company Background

Recent Earnings Review

Company Forecast

Company Profile

Clinical Trial Overview

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