Merck & Co - Company Profile

The publisher explores Merck & Co’s prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2019-29.

Snapshot

Overview - Merck & Co’s revenue growth will be fairly stable over the forecast period, as growth from Keytruda and Gardasil will be offset by declines from Januvia, Janumet, and the spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands.

Key themes - [1] Keytruda will see strong growth over the forecast period until loss of exclusivity in 2028, although 2020 growth will be negatively impacted by two large price reductions in Japan [2] Merck’s metabolic portfolio will decline significantly due to patent expiries for key drugs Januvia and Janumet [3] Merck’s late-stage pipeline is heavily skewed towards label expansions for its existing oncology portfolio, with only a few new drug launches expected over the forecast period.

Model updates (3 August 2020)

• Gardasil forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact in the US
• ProQuad forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact in the US
• Pneumovax 23 forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact in the US
• Keytruda forecast adjusted lower due to COVID-19 impact in the US and Europe.

Model updates (2 June 2020)

• Lenvima alliance revenue forecast adjusted higher
• NuvaRing forecast adjusted lower due to generic impact in the US.

Model updates (4 March 2020)

• Keytruda forecast adjusted lower due to 2020 impact of two significant price reductions in Japan
• Gardasil forecast adjusted higher due to strong demand globally
• Lenvima alliance revenue forecast added
• Lynparza alliance revenue forecast added
• Zetia forecast removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
• Vytorin removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
• NuvaRing removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
• Implanon removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
• Singulair removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
• Cozaar removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
• Nasonex removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
• Arcoxia removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands
• Follistim removed after mid-2021 due to Merck spin-off of Women’s Health and Legacy Brands.

Model updates (4 November 2019)

• Keytruda forecast adjusted higher due to continued momentum in all of NSCLC, including first-line monotherapy in China, as well as continued uptake in other cancer indications, including recently launched renal cell carcinoma and adjuvant melanoma indications
• Gardasil forecast adjusted lower in the near term due to supply constraints, which will alleviate in 2023 upon completion of additional production capabilities.

Model updates (7 August 2019)

• Keytruda forecast adjusted higher due to continued share gains in first-line NSCLC and other label expansions
• Gardasil forecast adjusted higher due to increasing vaccination rates globally, positive pricing, and the ongoing commercial launch in China
• ProQuad / M-M-R II / Varivax forecast adjusted higher due to higher vaccination rates and favorable pricing
• Remicade forecast adjusted lower due to continued biosimilar competition and pricing pressure in Europe
• Simponi forecast adjusted lower due to biosimilar competition in the immunology and inflammation space impacting growth
• Gefapixant forecast added
• Vericiguat forecast added.