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Algerian Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

  • ID: 4787601
  • Report
  • Region: Algeria
  • 91 pages
  • GlobalData
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Algerian Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

Summary

Algerian defense expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.36% during 2020-2024. The question regarding the succession of President Bouteflika, the risks of terrorism spilling over from the turmoil in Libya, regional instability and tensions across the Sahel affect economic, social and political stability in Algeria.

Algeria is currently the largest military spender in the African region with a defense budget of US$10.4 billion in 2019. The country’s increasing military expenditure is reflected in the ongoing modernization drive due to security challenges and the arms race witnessed in the North African region. Algerian defense expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.36% over the forecast period to reach US$12.7 billion in 2024, with the main aim being to replace most of its outdated military equipment.

Capital expenditure is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 4.39%, due to the country’s heavy procurement plans over the forecast, which is expected to increase from US$2.1 billion in 2020 to US$2.5 billion in 2024. Some of the major procurements and large scale opportunities remain in areas ranging from unmanned aerial systems to naval auxiliary vessels. The country is expected to procure bombers, air defense systems, High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) UAVs, transport aircraft, multirole fighters, armored vehicles and patrol crafts.

Homeland security expenditure is expected to record a CAGR of 2.12% over the forecast period. The security situation along its borders with Libya, Mali, Niger and Tunisia is unstable. As such, the country is expected to spend robustly on electronic surveillance systems, radar systems, and alarms supported by unmanned platforms to track militants operating in the southern desert regions. Algerian homeland security (HLS) expenditure is expected to stand at US$3.5 billion in 2020 and increase at a CAGR of 2.12% over the forecast period to reach US$3.8 billion in 2024.

Algeria has witnessed the large scale import of foreign military equipment during 2014-2018 owing to the unstable geopolitical conditions faced by the country in the recent past. Algeria relies mostly on foreign imports from countries such as Russia, China, Germany, and Italy etc. Traditionally, Russia has been the major supplier of most military equipment and platforms to Algeria. However, this trend is changing as Algeria has opened its market to other countries and thus reduced its dependency on one particular nation. Aircraft accounted for 31.8% of Algeria’s arms imports, followed by naval vessels, armored vehicles, missiles, and air defense systems, among other weapon systems procured from foreign suppliers over the historic period. During 2014-2018, Russia had the highest market share with 66.1%, followed by China, Germany and Italy.

The report "Algerian Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024", offers detailed analysis of the Algerian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -
  • The defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Algerian defense industry during 2020-2024, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Algerian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Algerian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis
Companies mentioned: Rosoboronexport, Entreprise Nationale des Véhicules Industriels, NIMR-Algeria Joint Stock Company, Khenchela Mechanical Constructions Establishment (ECMK), Seriana Company of Industrial Achievements (ERIS), National Office of Explosive Substances, EPE (ONEX).

Scope
  • The question regarding the succession of President Bouteflika, the risks of terrorism spilling over from the turmoil in Libya, regional instability and tensions across the Sahel affect economic, social and political stability in Algeria. Algeria is currently the largest military spender in the African region with a defense budget of US$10.4 billion in 2019.
  • The country’s increasing military expenditure is reflected in the ongoing modernization drive due to security challenges and the arms race witnessed in the North African region. Algerian defense expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.36% over the forecast period to reach US$12.7 billion in 2024, with the main aim being to replace most of its outdated military equipment.
Reasons to buy
  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Algerian defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Algerian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts
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1. Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. About Author

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Current Market Scenario
3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception
3.1.2. Military Doctrine and Strategy
3.1.3. Procurement Programs
3.1.4. Top Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
3.1.5. Geopolitical, Social, and Economic Scenario
3.1.6. Political and Strategic Alliances
3.2. Defense Market Size: Historical and Forecast
3.2.1. Algeria’s defense budget to grow at a CAGR of 4.36% over the forecast period
3.2.2. Rising threat of terrorism and military competition with Morocco to drive Algeria’s defense expenditure
3.2.3. The defense budget as a percentage of GDP will remain at an average of 4.9% over the forecast period
3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.3.1. Capital expenditure’s share of the budget is expected to marginally increase over the forecast period
3.3.2. Capital expenditure is expected to record a CAGR of 4.39% over the forecast period
3.3.3. Algeria’s per-capita defense expenditure is expected to increase over the forecast period
3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.4.1. The homeland security market in Algeria is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.12% over the forecast period
3.4.2. Human trafficking and drug trafficking form the main components of homeland security expenditure
3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.5.1. Algerian defense expenditure is expected to remain low compared to leading spenders
3.5.2. Algeria will continue to dominate the arms market in the Africa region
3.5.3. Defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to remain high compared to other countries over the forecast period
3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
3.6.1. Top 10 Defense Market Categories by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
3.6.2. Military Transport Aircraft
3.6.3. Airborne C4ISR
3.6.4. Armored Personnel Carrier (APC)

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Defense imports increased during 2014−2018
4.1.2. Russia, China, Germany and Italy are Algeria’s major defense equipment suppliers
4.1.3. Aircraft, naval vessels and armored vehicles accounted for 77% of Algerian defense imports
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Algeria does not export arms due to an undeveloped domestic arms industry

5. Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Low to Medium
5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: Medium
5.1.3. Barriers to Entry: High
5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: Low to Medium
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: Low to Medium

6. Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Formal offset policy to be drafted to ensure growth of the country’s domestic defense manufacturing industry
6.1.2. Foreign direct investment and joint ventures in terms of defense
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Budget Process
6.2.2. Defense Procurement Process
6.2.3. Collaborations provide market entry opportunities
6.2.4. Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Corruption and lack of transparency pose an obstacle for market entry
6.3.2. Lack of relevant defense procurement policy

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver to Algeria
7.2. Algerian Market Share Analysis, 2019-2024
7.2.1. Rosoboronexport: Overview
7.2.2. Rosoboronexport: Products
7.2.3. Rosoboronexport: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.2.4. Rosoboronexport: Alliances
7.2.5. Rosoboronexport: Recent Contract Wins
7.3. Key Domestic Companies
7.3.1. Entreprise Nationale des Véhicules Industriels: Overview
7.3.2. Entreprise Nationale des Véhicules Industriels Vehicles: Products and Services
7.3.3. Entreprise Nationale des Véhicules Industriels: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.4. Entreprise Nationale des Véhicules Industriels: Alliances
7.3.5. NIMR-Algeria Joint Stock Company: Overview
7.3.6. NIMR-Algeria Joint Stock Company: Products
7.3.7. Khenchela Mechanical Constructions Establishment (ECMK): Overview
7.3.8. Khenchela Mechanical Constructions Establishment: Products
7.3.9. Khenchela Mechanical Constructions Establishment: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.10. Khenchela Mechanical Constructions Establishment: Alliances
7.3.11. Seriana Company of Industrial Achievements (ERIS): Overview
7.3.12. Seriana Company of Industrial Achievements: Products
7.3.13. National Office of Explosive Substances, EPE (ONEX): Overview
7.3.14. National Office of Explosive Substances: Products

8. Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Economic Performance
8.1.1. GDP Per-Capita at Constant Prices (US$)
8.1.2. GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion)
8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services, Local Currency Unit (LCU Billion)
8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services, Local Currency Unit (LCU Billion)
8.1.5. Gross national Disposable Income (US$ Billion)
8.1.6. Local Currency Unit (LCU) per US$ (Period Average)
8.1.7. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP, Local Currency Unit (LCU)
8.1.8. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP
8.1.9. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP
8.1.10. Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP
8.1.11. Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP
8.1.12. Foreign Direct Investment, Net (Balance of Payments or BoP, Current US$ Billion)
8.1.13. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP
8.1.14. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (Local Currency Units or LCU, Billion)

9. Appendix
9.1. About Author
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: Algeria - Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs
Table 2: Algerian - Future Procurement Programs
Table 3: Algerian Top Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Table 4: Algerian Defense Expenditure (DZD Billion and US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Table 5: Algerian GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015-2024
Table 6: Algerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024
Table 7: Algerian Defense Capital Expenditure (DZD Billion and US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Table 8: Algerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
Table 9: Algerian Homeland Security Expenditure (DZD Billion & US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Table 10: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2015-2019 vs 2020-2024
Table 11: Algerian 10 Leading Defense Market Categories by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Table 12: Competitive Landscape of the Algerian Defense Industry
Table 13: Algeria - Top 10 Defense Suppliers by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Table 14: Rosoboronexport - Products
Table 15: Rosoboronexport - Alliances
Table 16: Rosoboronexport - Recent Contract Wins
Table 17: Entreprise Nationale des Véhicules Industriels - Products and Services
Table 18: Entreprise Nationale des Véhicules Industriels - Alliances
Table 19: NIMR-Algeria - Products
Table 20: Khenchela Mechanical Constructions Establishment - Products
Table 21: Khenchela Mechanical Constructions Establishment (ECMK) - Alliances
Table 22: Seriana Company of Industrial Achievements - Products
Table 23: National Office of Explosive Substances - Products

List of Figures
Figure 1: Algerian Defense Budget, 2019 and 2024
Figure 2: Algerian Defense Imports/Exports, 2014 and 2018
Figure 3: Algerian Top Prospective Procurements/Developments
Figure 4: Algerian National Security Threats
Figure 5: Algeria’s Partner Countries for Defense Cooperation and Military Training
Figure 6: Algerian Defense Expenditure (DZD Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 7: Algerian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 8: Algeria’s GDP Growth and Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015-2024
Figure 9: Algerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024
Figure 10: Algerian Defense Capital Expenditure (DZD Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 11: Algerian Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 12: Algerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
Figure 13: Algerian Homeland Security Expenditure (DZD Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 14: Algerian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
Figure 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2015-2019 vs 2020-2024
Figure 16: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2019 and 2024
Figure 17: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of the Largest Military Spenders (%), 2018
Figure 18: Transport Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2023
Figure 19: Airborne C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Figure 20: Armored Personnel Carrier Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024
Figure 21: Algeria Defense Import Trend (US$ Million), 2014-2018 (TIV Values*)
Figure 22: Algerian Defense Imports by Country (%), 2014-2018
Figure 23: Algerian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2014-2018
Figure 24: Industry Dynamics - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 25: Algerian Budgeting Process
Figure 26: Algerian Market Share Analysis, 2019-2024
Figure 27: Algeria’s GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2015-2025
Figure 28: Algeria’s GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025
Figure 29: Algeria’s Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 30: Algeria’s Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 31: Algeria’s Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2014
Figure 32: Algeria’s LCU per US$, 2015-2024
Figure 33: Algeria’s Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU), 2005-2011
Figure 34: Algeria’s Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2014
Figure 35: Algeria’s Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2014
Figure 36: Algeria’s Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2013
Figure 37: Algeria’s Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP (%), 2005-2013
Figure 38: Algeria’s Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, Current US$ Billion), 2005-2013
Figure 39: Algeria’s Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
Figure 40: Algeria’s Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
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