Everyone’s talking about change. Everyone’s making so much noise about energy transition. So many seem to be wishing for the end of the oil and gas market.
It really is all just talk. Things are changing for sure, but what is unchanged is the world’s dependence on oil and gas as a primary energy source. To really move away from fossil fuels will take decades and decades and, in the meantime, both oil and new production is still needed. Oil and gas might be a huge elephant in the room, but it has not packed its trunk and said goodbye to the circus.
The offshore market is far from over. Things are going to be different, but the subsea market does not need to panic, although 2020 has hardly been easy. A rebound is coming, but it will take time. And a lot of the rebound will just be recovering lost ground. The market has another significant upcycle left in it, but it might be the last go around like that.
Mature areas can pick up first, especially those featuring a new breed of oil companies with very different financial backing that are set up to grow hard and fast. Deepwater is a different matter. That’s going to take longer. Nonetheless, the subsea market remains vital to pretty much all new offshore production projects, and the most dynamic segment of the whole market.
Look, we’ll be brutally honest with you. Anyone can produce a superficial market forecast when the offshore market is on the up. Understanding all the market cycles is much more difficult and takes real market knowledge and understanding. Even a dedication to a market segment. This is the twentieth time Strategic Offshore Research has produced the annual Global Subsea Market forecast. Through every thick and thin of the market we have been accurately and diligently forecasting the subsea segment. No one else can provide the level of detail and deep insight we can.
The new report runs through a forecast horizon of 2027 because the market drivers are that long-term. All aspects of what’s going to happen are closely examined in a thought-provoking and direct fashion. People need things distilled right down to the brass tacks of what it will mean to their business and their market, and that’s what this report does every time. And there’s no shying away from some inconvenient truths that are thrown up too.
UPSTREAM - A BRAVE NEW WORLD?
- Demand, Where Art Thou?
- Feel the Energy Intensity
- Supply - No One can Handle the Truth
- One more Time with Feeling
- (Under)Investment Rules Ok?
DEMAND REVIEW: CRASH AND CRASH AGAIN
- The Bad Oil Times are Back
- Demand Review - All Down
- Every Quarter Took a Beating in 2020
- North Sea - Struggled but Held on by Fingertips
- Cuts Irrespective of Workmode
- Last Gasp from Big Oil in North Sea
- Latin Lessons for Rest of World
- DSVs Tend to Hold on Slightly Better
- Brazil Has more than Half the Deep Show
- Looking for Any Port in a Storm
- Renewables to the Rescue
- Walk-To-Work Jobs Hit by Pandemic Too
- Decom Work There, but Still Inconsistent
- Operators Even Cut Spending on Well Work
SUPPLY: OVERSUPPLY ISSUES EVEN MORE EXPOSED
- Only Last Few Newbuild Stragglers Left
- Fashion for Scrapping Was Short and Sharp
- Age Profile Shows Time Marching On
- Long Idle Ships Won’T and Don’T Disappear
- Always a Part of the Fleet That’S Never Available
- Brother, can You Spare a Dime?
- Is Greening a Way to Adjust Oversupply?
THROWN OFF THE RAILS: DEMAND THROUGH 2027
- North Sea - Starting a Whole New Recovery Process
- Diverless Ships Wait for Uptick
- Rest of World will Take Time to Get Going
- Africa in Particular Goes Awol
- Things can Only Get Better
- Deepwater will need Patience
- Deepwater Song will Remain the Same
- Global Demand Forecast - Hurry Up and Wait
MARKET’S PERSONALITY LOOKS UNBALANCED
- Share and Share Alike Market Slack
- Day-Rates: Not a Lot to Play with
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT - ISSUES AMPLIFIED
CURRENT SUBSEA SUPPORT VESSELS AND THEIR CLASSIFICATIONS
GLOSSARY OF TERMS