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Autonomous Vehicles

  • Report

  • 84 Pages
  • July 2019
  • Region: Global
  • ID: 4807341

With new players emerging and the flow of rapid advances in key autonomous driving technologies, the car and mobility markets are on the verge of major disruptions which will likely impact how people travel to a great extent.

Our report on autonomous cars presents the underlying technologies needed to attain the required level of autonomy.

  • It describes the different levels of autonomy and evaluates the potential of such vehicles.
  • It analyses the strategies of car manufacturers and Internet players – the latter are newcomers to the car market.
  • It reviews the main drivers for and barriers to autonomous car deployment on the market.
  • Finally, it presents sales forecasts for autonomous cars including Levels 3, 4 and 5 up to 2040.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
2. Underlying technologies
2.1. Difference between connected and autonomous cars
2.1.1. Recalling the definitions
2.1.2 Autonomous cars need connectivity
2.2. Artificial intelligence
2.3. Surrounding detection technology
2.3.1. Lidar
2.3.2. Radar
2.3.3. Cameras and computer vision
2.3.4. Other sensors
2.3.5. Synthesis
2.4. Connectivity and communication
2.4.1. V2V
2.4.2. 5G and cellular V2X
2.4.3. DSRC/ITS-G5
2.4.4. ITS-G5 vs C-V2X
2.4.5. GNSS
2.4.6. HD Mapping
3. Potential and issues around self-driving cars
3.1. Levels of autonomous driving
3.1.1 Definitions
3.1.2 Issues and challenges
3.2. Technologies and related challenges
3.3. Level of autonomous driving
3.4. Autonomous car potential
3.4.1. Safety
3.4.2. Increased convenience
3.4.3. Traffic and increased mobility for non-drivers
4. Ecosystem
4.1. Connectivity in the car
4.2. Autonomous driving ecosystem
4.2.1. Overview of autonomous car strategies
4.2.2 Autonomous driving ecosystem strategies
4.2.3. Overview of autonomous driving market maturity
4.2.4 Mapping of main players in the autonomous driving ecosystem
4.2.5. Overview of autonomous car players
4.2.6. Overview of autonomous car proposals and roadmap
4.3. Major car manufacturers
4.3.1 General Motors
4.3.2 Ford
4.3.3 BMW
4.3.4 Volkswagen Group
4.3.5 Tesla
4.3.6 Toyota
4.3.7 PSA
4.3.8 Renault
4.3.9 NIO
4.4. Internet players
4.4.1. Google
4.4.2. Apple
4.4.3. Uber
4.4.4. Baidu
4.5. Equipment vendors
4.5.1. Which role for equipment vendors?
4.5.2. Key acquisitions
5. International adoption
5.1. International comparison of trust in self-driving cars
5.2. Main concerns over safety coming from developed countries
5.3. North America leads way in terms of experiments, so far
6. Autonomous car deployments
6.1. Key aspects of drivers and barriers
6.2. Market estimates by 2040
6.2.1. Level 5 car will not be a reality before 2030
6.2.2. The bulk of the demand will come from Asia-Pac region
List of tables and figures
Underlying technologies
  • Multiple sensors work together for autonomous driving
  • Lidar using a spinning mirror
  • Lidar imaging example
  • Benefits and drawbacks of radar for self-driving vehicles
  • Radar’s applications in ADAS
  • Differences between short-range and long-range radars
  • Applications of cameras in autonomous vehicles
  • Ultrasonic sensors in autonomous driving
  • VCSEL players in the automotive space
  • Comparison of main sensors used for self-driving cars
  • Main scenarios where V2V can prevent accidents
  • GM 2017 Cadillac CTS saloons, the first GM car to come equipped with V2V
  • Available operation modes in LTE-Sidelink Communications
  • Direct communications (with vehicles, infrastructure, people)
  • Communications through the network
  • Repartition of C-V2X application tested in trials (base= 27): Collision avoidance, the most tested use case
  • Worldwide C-V2X trials as of end 2018
  • 5G scope and automotive applications
  • DSRC/ITS-G5 deployments where Autotal is involved
  • What each supporter is saying of the technology competitor
  • Likely regulatory environment for V2X technologies
  • Complementarity between GNSS (absolute positioning) and other sensors (relative positioning)
  • What is an HD map? A SD map with additional layers

Potential and issues around self-driving cars
  • Autonomous driving levels
  • Difficult situations for self-driving
  • Traffic-light detection
  • What can you see in this picture?
  • Autonomous driving is also a question of responsibilities
  • Major causes for traffic accidents
  • Causes of stress and anxiety in the car
  • Park Assist (BMW)
  • Reduced distance between cars thanks to highway platooning result in reduced consumption and improved traffic conditions

  • Testing a self-driving Chevy Bolt electric vehicle
  • GM Maven car-sharing service
  • Autonomous Ford Fusion Hybrid vehicle
  • Trial of a self-driving car with Domino’s Pizza in August 2017
  • Sensor system of BMW autonomous driving
  • VW Sedric concept car for Level 5 autonomous driving
  • Sensor components enabling Audi A8 Level 3 autonomous driving
  • Example of OTA updates and new features brought to existing models
  • Level 3 self-driving features available to Tesla models with hardware 2 and more
  • Enhanced autopilot systems for autonomous driving
  • Number of (crowdsourced) miles driven by Tesla Autopilot
  • Toyota two-side development approach to self-driving
  • Mobility as a Service as a way to speed up to full self-driving technologies
  • Toyota e-Pallete concept announced at CES 2018

  • PSA Level 3 capable vehicles involved in L3Pilot project
  • Renault Nissan Mitsubishi Alliance roadmap for autonomous driving
  • Comparison of SUV models (as published in NIO Annual Report)
  • The Waymo ‘Firefly’ (retired in August 2017)
  • Waymo lidar sensors for sale to non-competing companies
  • Waymo One service deployed in areas of Phoenix, Arizona
  • A Lexus RX450h used by Apple in its testing of self-driving vehicles
  • Uber-Volvo self-driving car in development
  • Baidu-Chery autonomous driving prototype car (based on Apollo)
  • Apollo roadmap
  • Apollo hardware platform

International adoption
  • Consumer acceptance score, by country
  • Percentage of consumers who think fully self-driving vehicles will not be safe (2017 vs 2018)
  • Number of cities with trials and initiatives around autonomous cars

Autonomous car deployments
  • World car sales, by their level of autonomy, million units
  • Total sales by 2040, by region and by autonomy level

Companies Mentioned

  • Apple
  • Baidu
  • BMW
  • Ford
  • General Motors
  • Google
  • Internet players
  • Luxus
  • NIO
  • PSA
  • Renault
  • Tesla
  • Toyota
  • Uber
  • Volkswagen Group