+353-1-416-8900REST OF WORLD
+44-20-3973-8888REST OF WORLD
1-917-300-0470EAST COAST U.S
1-800-526-8630U.S. (TOLL FREE)

Strategic Insight into the Global Autonomous Shuttle Market, Forecast to 2030

  • Report

  • 98 Pages
  • August 2019
  • Region: Global
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 4833238

Autonomous Shuttles to Constitute 50% of the DRT Market; Cost Considerations, Fleet Efficiency, and Wide-Ranging Use Cases as the Key Driving Forces

The advent of new mobility services such as carsharing, bikesharing, ridesharing, ride hailing, and demand responsive transit (DRT) has brought the concept of shared mobility to center stage. Growing environmental concerns, congestion, lack of parking, vertical expansion in most emerging cities, and smart city initiatives have spearheaded a new revolution in mobility - from single occupancy (ride hailing) to multiple occupancy shared mobility (ride sharing, DRT).

Advanced technology platforms are being leveraged that help improve fleet optimization and precise fleet sizing across all mobility modes. Autonomous mobility services are emerging as an amalgamation of all possible solutions to urban mobility issues - highly efficient fleets that operate for more than 20 hours in a day, shared mobility services, compact vehicles, and limited number of active vehicles on the roads.
This study analyzes the emerging autonomous shuttle mobility market from different perspectives - stakeholder ecosystem and the growing significance of OEMs, autonomous startups, technology platforms and cities, regulatory outlook and commercialization potential, possible business and revenue models, cost comparisons, the importance of data and data sharing, and the global market outlook. Autonomous vehicle designing, parking, maintenance and repair, and insurance are some of the key markets that are expected to be disrupted by the advent of autonomous shuttles.

While commercialization in developed markets is expected by 2019, commercial autonomous shuttle services are expected post-2021 in emerging markets. Commercialization, however, will require substantial capital investment due to factors such as low awareness, low utilization rates, and high initial capital outlay for operations. Government funding will play a critical role in determining success for the market. Cities and transit agencies will be instrumental in implementing the services - integrating autonomous shuttle into the public transit system. Determining proper use cases and deploying the shuttles accordingly will lead to higher adoption and uptake rates. The current use case typically includes last mile connectivity; however, it can be expanded to suit a wide range of mobility requirements across geofenced and non-geofenced operations - in the short run, autonomous shuttles are expected to continue being geofenced and supervised. In the mid to long term, autonomous shuttles will gradually move towards being unsupervised and will operate on non-geofenced routes.

The autonomous shuttle market is currently dominated by vehicle manufacturers and technology platforms such as Easymile, Navya, Aptiv, May Mobility, Bestmile, Oxbotica, and Sensible 4. However, it is expected that all service providers will move towards becoming a platform - controlling every part of the value chain.

As the market evolves, new business models such as autonomous delivery and logistics services are expected to gain significance. A number of pilots, including pilots by OEMs such as Ford and GM, are being undertaken for autonomous deliveries.

With robust market potential and growth trajectory, the autonomous shuttle market is expected to constitute 50% of the demand responsive transit market by 2030.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
  • Key Findings
  • Transition from Single Occupancy Shared Mobility towards Shared Mobility Modes
  • Key Application Areas of Geofenced Autonomous Shuttles
  • Key Application Areas of Non-Geofenced Autonomous Shuttles
  • Initiatives Across the Globe-Public-Private Integration
  • Snapshot of the Key Markets-Feasibility Analysis and Timeline
  • Market Developments
  • Regulatory Landscape
  • Key Findings and Future Outlook

Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions This Study Will Answer
  • Research Background
  • Research Methodology

Definitions and Segmentation
  • Autonomous Shuttle Market-Segmentation
  • Demand-Responsive Transit-Market Definitions

Introduction to the Autonomous Shuttle Market
  • Value Chain and Business Models
  • Pricing Models
  • O&M-Cost Assumptions
  • O&M Scenario-Operating Factors
  • O&M Scenario-Cost Analysis
  • Major OEM Strategy-Stepwise Introduction of Automated Driving (AD)
  • Future Roadmap-Autonomous Driving
  • Expanding Demand-Benefits and Applications of Autonomous Shuttles
  • Market Potential for Autonomous Shuttles across Applications
  • Value Chain Analysis-Aftermarket Solution Providers
  • Data Analytics-Leveraging Data as well as Providing User Insights
  • Mobility Use Case 1- Lyft
  • Technology Use Case 1-HERE’s Real-time Traffic Service
  • Autonomous Shuttle Manufacturing Startups
  • Autonomous Shuttle Technology Startups
  • Impending Advent of Automated Taxis
  • The Emerging Urban Mobility Landscape
  • Real Impact of Autonomous Shuttles-Boost to Economy

Regulatory Landscape
  • Regulatory Outlook-North America: United States
  • Regulatory Outlook-North America: Canada
  • Regulatory Outlook-Europe
  • Regulatory Outlook-Asia: China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea
  • Regulatory Outlook-Oceania: Australia and New Zealand
  • Regulatory Outlook-The Middle East: Dubai (UAE)

Technology Roadmap
  • 2025 Cost Comparison-Autonomous Shuttles vs. Traditional Shuttles
  • Autonomous Shuttles and Cost Remodelling-2017 vs. 2025
  • Evolution of Autonomous Shuttles
  • Impact of Blockchain Technology on the Autonomous Shuttles

Market Landscape
  • Navya-Company Profile
  • Bestmile-Company Profile
  • May Mobility-Company Profile
  • Postbus-Company Profile
  • Transdev-Company Profile
  • Ridecell-Company Profile

New Business Models
  • Driverless Delivery Shuttles
  • Autonomous Car Concepts

Market Sizing and Opportunities
  • Autonomous Shuttles Unit Shipment Forecast Scenario Analysis
  • Autonomous Shuttles Revenue Forecast Scenario Analysis
  • Market Opportunities

Conclusions and Future Outlook-Total Market
  • Key Conclusions and Future Outlook

Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
  • Growth Opportunity-Partnerships, New Business Models, and New Technology
  • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

The Last Word
  • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

  • Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
  • Market Engineering Methodology
  • List of Exhibits

Companies Mentioned

A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes:

  • Aptiv
  • Bestmile
  • Easymile
  • Ford
  • GM
  • May Mobility
  • Navya
  • Oxbotica
  • Postbus
  • Ridecell
  • Sensible 4
  • Transdev