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Impact of Implementation of Bharat Stage VI (BS-VI) on Indian Commercial Vehicle Industry, FY 2019

  • Report

  • 83 Pages
  • August 2019
  • Region: India
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 4833257

Implementation of BS-VI Norm to be a Major Disruptor for the Commercial Vehicle Industry, Impacting Largely the OEMs, Stakeholders, Industry Volumes, and Cost of Vehicle and Changing the Entire Ecosystem of CV Industry

The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of the implementation of Bharat Stage (BS)-VI norms in India on the commercial vehicle industry. The main objectives of this study are to provide a strategic review of the BS emission standards and the development of BS-VI engines. This study analyzes the challenges faced by the commercial vehicle industry during and after the implementation of the norms. This study also evaluates the present impact of the BS-VI norms on the commercial vehicle industry in India and the growth opportunities for stakeholders.

BS-VI is an outflow standard that will bring truly necessary changes in the Indian vehicle industry in terms of toxin emanations. With this outflow standard becoming effective, India will be at standard with the US, European nations and other progressive economies around the globe.

India is currently following BS-IV standard that was brought into effect on April 2014. The upcoming BS-VI standard incorporates a wide rundown of innovation adjustments in the engine, the most noteworthy being making on-board diagnostics (OBD) required for all vehicles. BS-VI is in lines with Euro-VI norm already adopted in European countries. In fact, this new emission norm will also address one major drawback in the Euro-VI norm that allows emission of higher particulate matter (PM) in diesel engines.

Leapfrogging from BS-IV to BS-VI will be a challenging task, especially for the OEMs, as it will require significant engine technology changes including improvements in engine combustion and calibration, increased injection, and cylinder pressures. These changes call for heavy investments and co-ordination across the value chain to ensure a smooth transition.

With the implementation of the BS-VI norms, OBD will become mandatory for all vehicles. The OBD unit facilitates the proper working of the sophisticated emission control device at optimum efficiency throughout the life of the vehicle. This will result in a substantial reduction of carbon emission from the vehicles. With BS-VI implementation, the demand for CVs is expected to slow down during the first few years after the roll-out of BS-VI norms, as the BS-VI–compliant vehicles are bound to be costlier than BS-IV vehicles due to the advanced technology used and increased fuel cost. The demand is expected to pick up slowly as all the factors start stabilizing.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
  • Key Highlights
  • BS-VI Emission Norm: Background
  • Advantage of BS-VI over BS-IV
  • Emerging Technologies

2. Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
  • Research Scope
  • Research Aims and Objectives
  • Key Questions This Study Will Answer
  • Research Methodology

3. What is BS-VI Norm
  • About BS-VI Emission Norm - Background
  • Need to Leapfrog from BS-IV to BS-VI
  • Key Challenges from Leapfrogging BS-IV to BS-VI

4. Why BS-VI?
  • Executive Summary - Advantage of BS-VI over BS-IV

5. BS-VI Emission Standard, Specification, and Requirements
  • BS Emission Standards
  • BS Emission - Testing
  • BS Emission - OBD Requirements
  • BS Emission - Durability
  • BS Emission - Diesel Fuel Specification

6. Challenges in Developing BS-VI - Compliant Vehicles
  • Key Challenges to Develop BS-VI - Compliant Vehicles

7. Emission Control Technology Solutions
  • New Base Engine Development
  • Emerging Technologies
  • Exhaust After-treatment Devices
  • SCR Technology
  • SCR Versus EGR Technology

8. Impact of Implementation of Bharat Stage-VI on CV Industry - Survey
  • Who Participated in Our Survey?
  • Impact of Implementation of BS-VI on Various CV Industry Stakeholders
  • Impact of BS-VI on Overall Cost of Vehicles
  • Impact of BS-VI on Dealer Margins
  • Impact of BS-VI on Mileage of Vehicles
  • Impact of BS-VI on Fuel Cost
  • Impact of BS-VI on Maintenance Cost
  • Impact of BS-VI on Industry Volumes Before Implementation
  • Degree of Impact of BS-VI on Industry Volumes Within a Year After Implementation
  • Degree of Impact of BS-VI on Industry Volumes in 1–2 Years After Implementation
  • Impact of BS-VI on Value Establishment (i.e., Fluid Economy)
  • Most BS-VI - Compatible OEMS in CV Industry in India
  • Possibility of Any Amendments in Vehicle Scrappage Policy due to Implementation BS-VI Norms

9. Voice of CV Industry Experts
  • Opinions of the CV Industry Expert - Impact on Fleet Owners
  • Opinions of the CV Industry Expert - Impact on Service Offerings by OEMs
  • Opinions of the CV Industry Expert - Issues/Challenges Regarding Implementation of BS-VI

10. Suggestions of CV Industry Experts
  • Suggestions of the CV Industry Expert - On Smooth Implementation of BS-VI

11. The author's Perspective on the Impact of BS-VI on CV Industry
  • Total Industry Volume (TIV) Forecast Scenario
  • Summary of Findings

12. Growth Opportunities and Future Outlook
  • Growth Opportunity 1 - Development of BSVI Compliant Trucks and Availability of BSVI Fuel
  • Growth Opportunity 2 - Engine Downsizing and Innovative System Development
  • Growth Opportunity 3 - OBD as Value-added Service Offering
  • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

13. The Last word
  • The Last Word - 3 Big Predictions
  • Legal Disclaimer

14. Appendix
  • Table of Acronyms
  • List of Exhibits