The US is witnessing some major trade policy shifts that are having a significant impact on the US and the global economy. The results of the upcoming 2020 Presidential elections and policies thereafter also stand to significantly influence the growth trajectory of the US economy. In light of these anticipated events, research on this topic has been designed to better prepare decision-makers for multiple scenarios that could unfold in the coming years.
Trade wars are having a detrimental impact on the world economy, with prolonged trade wars viewed as one of the biggest risks to world economic growth. This research analyses multiple trade war scenarios that can play out in the coming months and assesses the impact of trade wars on the US GDP growth. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is another major trade policy shift that has emerged in the last two years. It remains to see if the USMCA will be ratified by the US Congress, with potential ratification to especially benefit the US automotive industry. A trade deal with the UK is expected to come into force after a transition period (or after a no-deal Brexit takes place). The research assesses the features of a potential US-UK trade deal.
With US presidential elections scheduled for 2020, candidates are now highlighting some of their key policy proposals. It remains to be seen whether Trump will remain in power for another term, or whether the US will see a new President coming to power. A potential term two for Trump could see new policy changes such as a point-based system for green cards or favored nation drug pricing. If a Democratic candidate were to be elected to office, the US could see the reversal of 2017 tax cuts, with the possible imposition of higher taxes. As for ongoing trade wars, there is broad support for a tougher stance against China; the strategy of punitive tariffs has, however, been criticized for the damage it has wreaked on the US economy.
This research assesses the short-term outlook for the US dollar and examines the scenarios of dollar devaluation, depreciation, and appreciation. Potential devaluation by the US will be accompanied by the risk of global currency wars.
American spending patterns and the outlook for the US labor market are the other key topics analyzed as part of this research.
Key Issues Addressed
- What are the policy expectations from the key 2020 presidential candidates?
- What is the policy stance of candidates on key issues, such as trade wars and tax cuts?
- What is the outlook for US GDP growth?
- What is the scenario-based outlook for trade wars?
- How will the potential 25% US tariffs affect the automotive industry?
- What impact will the USMCA trade deal have on US industries?
- What would a potential US-UK trade deal look like?
- Is the US dollar expected to appreciate, depreciate, or be devalued?
- How are American consumer spending patterns expected to evolve?
- What is the US labor market outlook?
