It is Predicted that the United States and China will Reach a Partial Deal Before the 2020 US Presidential Election
China’s swift economic growth and plans such as “Made in China 2025” have raised its competition with the United States. This situation has led to the US-China trade war with the United States imposing trade tariffs on Chinese products and China retaliating by imposing tariffs on US products. The trade war is slowing down the global economic and trade growth, increasing global policy uncertainty and shifting the global supply chain. The question here is how this ongoing trade war will affect the global and regional (Southeast Asia or SEA) economic growth? What will be the future of global trade?
With the onset of the trade war, the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, do not import each other’s products as much as they used to before. As a result, their importations from other countries have increased substantially. These import substitutions have benefited other economies, especially those in SEA and Latin America. Questions here are how has the US-China trade war affected the economic and trade growth of SEA countries? Did it change their import and export patterns from the United States and China?
Companies in China, especially the tech giants, have either relocated or are considering relocation to other regions, particularly SEA, due to the ongoing trade war. These companies do not see any end to the trade war in the near future and have already lowered their earnings guidance. This has led to further questions: Which country is absorbing the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) from China? What are the reasons behind it except skipping the US tariffs on Chinese products? The rise in global uncertainty as a result of the US-China trade war and other events such as Brexit and the upcoming 2020 US presidential election has made investment decisions difficult for companies. Key questions here are what are the risk factors arising from the trade war, and how to manage these risks?
This research study is a comprehensive guideline of the US-China trade war for investors and decision-makers. In addition to providing a timeline of the trade war highlighting and explaining the main events leading to the current dispute and explaining how this trade war began, this study answers all of the above-mentioned questions and also others-Will the United States and China compromise for the sake of higher efficiency? Are negotiations going to fail?-regarding the future of the trade war and if it is going to end anytime soon.
Key Issues Addressed
- How the ongoing trade war will affect the global and regional (SEA) economic growth?
- What will be the future of global trade?
- Did the trade war change SEA imports and export patterns from the United States and China?
- What are the risk factors arising from this trade war? How to manage these risks?
- What will be the future of the US-China trade war?
Table of Contents
- Key Findings
- Impact of Trade War
- CEO’s Perspective
- Market Definitions
- Global GDP-Share of the United States, China, and SEA
- GDP Per Capita-United States, China, and East Asia & Pacific
- Economic Growth-Global, United States and China
- Timeline-Battles 1 and 2
- Timeline-Battle 2
- Timeline-Battle 3
- Battle 1 Explained
- Battle 2 Explained
- Battle 3 Explained
- Made in China 2025-The Plan
- Made in China 2025-The Consequences
- Global Economic Impact-Economic Growth
- Global Economic Impact-Trade
- Global Economic Impact-Exports
- Global Economic Impact-Imports
- Global Economic Impact-US’s Import Substitutions
- Global Economic Impact-China’s Import Substitutions
- Global Economic Impact-Policy Uncertainty
- Regional Impact-Economic Growth
- Regional Impact-Exports to the United States
- Regional Impact-Exports to China
- Regional Impact-Imports from the United States
- Regional Impact-Imports from China
- Most Affected Industries-Technology
- Most Affected Industries-Agriculture
- Most Affected Industries-Solar Panel
- US-China Trade War-Winners and Losers
- United States-Winner or Loser?
- The Case of Huawei
- Chinese Companies Are Relocating
- Risk Factors Arising from the Trade War
- How to Manage Risks Arising from this Conflict?
- Future of the US-China Trade War
- Growth Opportunity 1-Investments Opportunities
- Growth Opportunity 2-Geographical Expansion
- Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
- Concluding Remarks
- Legal Disclaimer
- Key Source Documents
- List of Exhibits
A selection of companies mentioned in this report includes: