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The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Southeast Asian Countries, 2018

  • Report
  • 71 Pages
  • October 2019
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • ID: 4850638

Even the Beneficiaries of the US-China Trade War Face the Impact of the Global Slowdown

This report provides an overview of the US-China trade war plan and its consequences. It also investigates the impacts of the US-China trade war on Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore.

The US-China trade war has been the main reason behind the uncertainty in financial markets during 2018 and 2019, which has affected investor confidence globally. For the US, their change in trade policy with China was aimed at reducing the US trade deficit with China and encouraging industries to invest in the United States rather than in China. The move is also aimed at bringing back manufacturing jobs to Americans. The trade war has significant impacts on the economic indicators globally and regionally. The global economic growth slowdown and international trade barrier resulting from the US trade policies have led to reduced demand for many industries around the world and raised the possibility of a global recession. The flow of foreign direct investment has shifted away from China to other countries. Many companies with bases in China have already relocated or are considering relocation to other destinations as they do not see any resolution to the dispute in the near future.

Not all countries have been affected in the same manner by the trade war. For instance, it has presented Vietnam with considerable advantages, opening up the possibility to attract investments from across the globe, including China. In fact, Vietnam has been the biggest beneficiary of the US-China trade war in the world so far. However, there is reason to anticipate changes in the US trade policy on Vietnam, as the US trade deficit with Vietnam is becoming wider. While Malaysia can be considered as an alternative destination for companies relocating from China, Singapore’s manufacturing industry, especially the semiconductor industry is suffering from the changes in demand for chipmakers, which has negatively impacted its economy. Finally, the report discusses the new phases of the trade war, such as the recent currency war and considers the possible future of the dispute. This report equips the investors with the required information to aid their decision-making process.

Key Issues Addressed

  • How has the US-China trade war affected economic growth?
  • What are the impacts of the dispute on the flow of foreign direct investment?
  • Which companies are considering relocation from China to other countries in the region?
  • What is the current state of the semiconductor industry in Singapore?

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
  • Key Findings
  • CEO’s Perspective

2. Overview
  • Scope of the Study
  • Global Economic Growth
  • Global Policy Uncertainty

3. Did the “America First” Policy Really Put America First?
  • America First Policy
  • The Consequences
  • The US Trade Balance with China
  • The US Imports from China
  • The US Exports to China
  • The US International Trade Balance

4. The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Vietnam
  • The Economy of Vietnam
  • Vietnam’s Economic Growth
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam
  • How did Vietnam Attract Foreign Investments?
  • Tech Giants are Relocating to Vietnam
  • Exports from Vietnam to the World
  • US Trade with Vietnam
  • China Trade with Vietnam
  • Vietnam Industries in the Time of Trade War
  • Is Vietnam the Next Target of US Tariffs?

5. The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Malaysia
  • The Economy of Malaysia
  • Malaysia’s Economic Growth
  • Foreign Direct Investment in Malaysia
  • Exports from Malaysia to the World
  • US Trade with Malaysia
  • China Trade with Malaysia
  • Malaysia Industries in the Time of Trade War

6. The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Singapore
  • The Economy of Singapore
  • Singapore’s Economic Growth
  • Exports from Singapore to the World
  • US Trade with Singapore
  • China Trade with Singapore
  • The Case of the Singapore Semiconductor Industry

7. The Trade War’s Future
  • The Battle’s Future

8. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
  • Growth Opportunity 1 - Geographic Expansion
  • Growth Opportunity 2 - New Capabilities
  • Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

9. Conclusion
  • Legal Disclaimer

10. Appendix
  • Key Source Documents
  • List of Exhibits