PGM Long-Term Outlook 2018

Better Times for PGM Markets Before Longer Terms Risks Evolve

Metals markets have run ahead of the reality of introducing major new technologies: Investors are acting as if the move toward EVs is a foregone conclusion and that the shift will occur quickly. The reality is that the future of motive power remains very much in question and that any shift will take decades to emerge.

Most platinum group metals (PGMs) use is in catalytic converters used to clean up harmful emissions from burning petroleum-derived fuels such as gasoline and diesel. Catalysts have been consuming most of the platinum, palladium, and rhodium produced worldwide since the 1980s.

This key use of PGMs is facing long-term changes in automotive propulsion technology, with the switch to electric vehicles or other forms of motive power presenting a long-term challenge to PGM-using petroleum-burning internal combustion engines.

Long before any major shift away from petroleum-based fuels severely reduces PGM demand in this industry, changes in mine supply and changes in other aspects of supply, fabrication demand, investment demand, and inventories are likely to have major effects on platinum, palladium, and rhodium prices.

The annual Platinum Group Metals Long-Term Outlook for 2018 has been released. The 148-page report presents a Main Case Scenario for PGM supply, demand, and prices to the year 2050, a long enough period for changes in automotive power to become apparent and begin to have major effects on PGM prices. It also presents six other scenarios covering different forms of future motive power and their effects on PGM supply, demand, and price.